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Cover Those Bases

The new Daniel Murphy...and why he could be the Nationals' x-factor

4/16/2016

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Going....going...gone. Gone. Gone. Gone. Gone. Gone. Gone. 

In a nine game stretch during the postseason while with the Mets, new Nationals' second baseman Daniel Murphy hit seven home runs. 

Murphy's never hit more than 14 home runs in the regular season, and in just nine games, he helped carry the Mets to the World Series as a home run hitter. 

It was a small sample size, right? Murphy couldn't have possibly been an actual power hitter all of a sudden, right? 

Wrong. 

In fact, Murphy's game with the Nationals, who signed him to a three-year, $37.5 million deal this offseason, has done a complete 180 through this season's first 10 games. 

Including stats through tonight's 8-1 win over the Phillies, Murphy is hitting .438 (14-for-28) with a .538 on-base percentage and a .844 slugging percentage over 39 plate appearances. 

Even more intriguing for the Nationals is that he already has two home runs and has walked seven times. At this pace, if Murphy gets the same amount of plate appearances as he did last season (538), he'd be on pace for a 30 home run season. 

Mind you, Murphy's dealing with a sky-high 25% home run to fly ball ratio, but even as that comes down, he appears to be well on his way to breaking his career high of 14 bombs in a season. 

The walks, however, could be permanent and perhaps--dare I say it--career changing. 

Murphy's career high in walks is 39. He already has seven in 10 games. He does have one intentional walk. But, again, if he gets 538 plate appearances, Murphy would be on pace for 97 walks, making him the seventh-highest walked player in the Majors in 2015. 

And the walks are not going anywhere. 

According to PITCHf/x data provided by FanGraphs.com, Murphy's plate discipline has been phenomenal thus far. For his career, Murphy has swung at 31.3% of pitches outside the strike zone. But with Washington so far? He's swung at just 20.3%.  

This means more pitches seen, more walks, and quite possibly, more home runs too. 

I'd like to point out that Murphy walked six times in 64 plate appearances during the 2015 postseason, and while that's not nearly as good as he's done in 2016, it definitely was better than his regular season. It allowed him to see more pitches and perhaps allowed him to hit more home runs. 

Postseason Daniel Murphy has not gone anywhere. Except yard. 

--Devan Fink

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