With the seventh pick in the 2005 MLB Draft, the Colorado Rockies selected a shortstop out of California State University Long Beach. His name was Troy Tulowitzki.
Known as "Tulo," Tulowitzki made his big league debut on August 30, 2006 with Colorado, at age 21. The rest, as they say, is history. Tulowitzki has gone on to play in 961 games with the Rockies, recording 1,068 hits, 176 home runs, and four All-Star appearances, all while being a cornerstone in their lineup and also being known around the league as one of the better shortstops in baseball. With rumors swirling of a possible trade of Tulowitzki, it is finally time for the Rockies to part ways with the shortstop this offseason. Because if they do not, it could really be a detriment to their team down the road, one that other teams, such as the Phillies, are starting to feel already. Tulowitzki is locked up for the next six seasons on a $118 million deal. He is scheduled to make $20 million from 2015 to 2019, while deescalating his salary to "only" $14 million in 2020. This is the contract for a player that last made 600 plate appearances in 2011, for just the third time in his career. *** When on the field, Troy Tulowitzki is fun to watch. Really fun. In 375 plate appearances this past season, "Tulo" had 107 hits, 18 doubles, a triple, 21 homers, and 52 runs batted in. That's in 91 games, ten more than half a season. Tulowitzki posted a 171 OPS+, the best in his nine year career. But the injuries have kept Tulowitzki from being the stud that he is when on the field. He tore a labrum this past season, going under the knife for a second time in his career. And that isn't it. From 2012 through this past season, Tulowitzki missed 213 of 486 games due to injury (via Baseball Prospectus). In the past three seasons, 43.8 percent of the Rockies games have been without Tulowitzki due to injury. *** It's time for the Rockies to make Tulowitzki's someone else's problem and deal him. The Yankees and Mets have reportedly been interested in acquiring Tulowitzki from the Rockies. Neither, however, have been able to divy-up the elite-level prospects that Rockies ownership has wanted for him. The Rockies need to take what they can get for him. While playing in Denver is not good for his health, who's to say he would be a 100 percent healthy Tulowitzki somewhere else? The Rockies have been reluctant to give any team even the slightest bit of a discount due to his injury history. The fact of the matter is, the Rockies are not contending within the next couple of seasons. If they can trade Tulowitzki at 75-85 percent of what he would be worth healthy, that would still get them a very nice package, one that would improve their farm system immensely, and almost immediately. They don't have to sell Tulowitzki at healthy price. And I'm not sure they have realized that. *** A trade of Tulowitzki would not only help the Rockies. It would help Tulowitzki himself. Moving out of that Denver air, Tulowitzki would be able to play more games, condition at a higher level, and might just be able to have continued success for a lengthier amount of time. He wants to play for a winner, and the Mets, for one, are a lot closer to that than the Rockies are. Taking a look at all the factors, a trade of Troy Tulowitzki is the right move. The young shortstop taken in that 2005 draft finally has to get out of Denver. And that should come this offseason. --Devan Fink
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James Shields is the third of the "big three" starting pitchers (Max Scherzer, Jon Lester) to be a free agent this offseason. Shields, off of a World Series appearances with the Royals, might just be the most affordable of the big three due to his age. That doesn't mean that he won't be inexpensive by any means.
The 32-year-old Shields was drafted in the 16th round of the 2002 MLB Draft by the then-Tampa Bay Devil Rays. He worked his way through the minors nicely, breaking out especially in 2005. Shields came up to the Rays in 2006 and worked his first 152 games (151 starts) over the next five years. He was an average pitcher -- above average at best -- working his way to a 4.25 ERA in 977 2/3 innings pitched. His 2011 season changed his entire career. Shields went 16-12 with a 2.82 ERA and a 134 ERA+, also averaging 3.46 strikeouts per walk in 249 1/3 innings. He led the American League with an astounding 11 complete games and 4 shutouts. He was shipped to Kansas City in 2012 in the deal that moved Wil Myers to Tampa. Since, he's been with the Royals. This past season, Shields went 14-8 with a 3.21 ERA and a 124 ERA+, averaging 4.09 strikeouts per walk over his 227 innings pitched. He was a 3.7 fWAR player this past year. The Royals decided to offer Shields a one-year, $15.3 million qualifying offer, but he has yet to make a decision. Shields just isn't as good as Lester or Scherzer. Those are the facts. He's also older, which means that his contract won't be as extravagant, nor for as many years. Currently interested, as previously reported, in Shields are the Yankees, Red Sox, and Cubs (obvious ones), but also the Blue Jays, Orioles, and Marlins. It's hard to gauge the interest of the latter three teams right now, but I have to assume they're in due to a smaller contract size. Shields is a really good pitcher, but this postseason he didn't help his stock in pitching well down the stretch. Lester posted an ERA around 2.6 in close to his last 30 postseason innings and Scherzer has an ERA around 3.6 over his last 30 postseason innings. Shields has a 7.20 ERA over his last 30 postseason innings. This has to be taken into consideration for teams wanting to sign him, for sure. This contract is a tough one to peg for me, but I really believe that the Cubs are going all in this offseason. Whether this means they are going to sign Lester, Shields, or both, I do not know, and I probably won't be able to tell you until both of them sign. My personal opinion is that they will sign Lester, but I'm not sure about Shields. But it's really hard to peg a contract for him in general. So, I have James Shields signing with the Chicago Cubs on a five-year, $80 million contract. --Devan F. The best player on this year's free agent market is Max Scherzer from the Detroit Tigers. Scherzer was offered a qualifying offer earlier today, but should still have a very strong market considering his accolades and performance on the field.
The 30-year-old Scherzer will be hitting free agency for the first time in his career, as he just wrapped up the arbitration process this past offseason, netting a one-year, $15.53 million deal from Detroit. Considering that the qualifying offer would actually be a decrease in pay for Scherzer, there is an extremely low chance he takes it. Where could he go and what contract could he get? Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported that Scherzer could net a seven-year, $175 million contract from his new team. Scherzer declined an extension from the Tigers that was worth $144 million over six years back prior to this season. He posted another very good season this year and should expect to make more than $144 million. The St. Louis native Scherzer was selected with the 11th overall pick in the 2006 MLB Draft by the Arizona Diamondbacks, out of the University of Missouri Columbia (Columbia, MO). He came up to the big leagues with Arizona for a brief period, but was traded in the three-team trade that sent Curtis Granderson to the Yankees, and Ian Kennedy and Edwin Jackson to the Diamondbacks. Since, Scherzer has improved every year. He completely broke out in 2013, going 21-3 with a 2.90 ERA in 214 1/3 innings pitched, which netted him the 2013 Cy Young award. This past year, Scherzer went 18-5 with a 3.15 ERA in 33 starts coming off his Cy Young season. He struck out 252 hitters and walked just 63 over his 220 1/3 innings of work. Scherzer may have resulted from some poor defense, as his 2.85 FIP suggests that his ERA was 0.30 inflated. It will be hard to pinpoint an exact location for Scherzer now, but I have a strong feeling he ends up in Boston to pitch for the Red Sox. The Chicago Cubs are in for one, or more, top tier starting pitchers, but I cannot see Theo Epstein giving up a second round pick to go get him. The Yankees could be in on him, but a recent report said they weren't going after top starting pitching. The Red Sox want to make another run at the AL East title in 2015. They acquired Yoenis Cespedes and Allen Craig at the trade deadline from the Athletics and Cardinals, respectively, to bolster their lineup and outfield. They still have a strong lineup that has some young talent, but did post a .684 OPS last year, which ranked 22nd in the majors. The Red Sox might need to really retool in order to contend once again. Other suitors for Scherzer are pretty obvious, the Yankees and Cubs. I'm not fully convinced that the Yankees will stay out of the top bidding this season, and the Cubs are going to go after some top pitching. But one, other potential suitor, the St. Louis Cardinals, might be a dark horse for Scherzer. Scherzer discussed the idea of pitching in St. Louis in March. "It would be too cool," Scherzer told the St. Louis Post-Dispatch's Rick Hummel. "I grew up there. When you’re a little kid, you picture yourself putting on the (Cardinals) uniform." No free agent starting pitcher has made over $150 million since CC Sabathia signed with the Yankees prior to the 2009 season. We'll see how the market plays out for Scherzer, but I have the Red Sox signing him to a six-year, $150 million contract, similar to the deal Zack Greinke got from the Dodgers prior to the 2013 season. No matter how you slice it, Scherzer will get paid. --Devan F. From 1995 to 2012, the New York Yankees missed the playoffs just once. They made the playoffs in seventeen of those eighteen years and won five World Series championships. The Yankees were, and still are, big spenders, and their money was able to keep them winning.
Since 2012, the Yankees strategy has built them two above-average teams (by record, at least). In 2012, the MLB postseason featured the Rays, Indians, Pirates, Athletics, and Braves, but not the Phillies, Angels, Rangers, and Yankees. Younger talent has become more of a necessity, while free agents are just additions to your nucleus, not the nucleus itself. What really led me to writing this post was the Dodgers hiring Andrew Friedman to be their President of Baseball Operations, even after a season where they won 94 games and won the National League West division. The Dodgers hiring of Friedman speaks volumes on how they're willing to make a culture change in order to catch up with sabermetrics, something that has become very important. The Yankees, Phillies, and Rangers have not yet to do something like that. Brian Cashman was extended as Yankees GM, Ruben Amaro Jr. is still running the Phillies further into the ground, and Jon Daniels continues to throw money at free agents that still haven't helped. And yet Billy Beane (Athletics), Chris Antonetti (Indians), and Dayton Moore (Royals) are building winning teams with a minimal payroll. Has the window closed for big market teams? I don't know. On one hand, you still have the Dodgers winning plenty of games with the highest payroll in baseball. They didn't go anywhere in the playoffs, but still were able to get there. However, on the contrary, the Red Sox won the World Series in 2013. I don't think it is truly a question of having the money, but what you do with the money that you have. The Dodgers are big in the international market. They signed Yasiel Puig, Hyun-jin Ryu, and Erisbel Arruebarrena to extravagant deals and still have been able to create homegrown talent in Clayton Kershaw, Matt Kemp, Dee Gordon, and others to help take this team far. But they have been able to keep those guys with their big market (See: Kershaw's seven-year, $215 million extension). I think the window has closed for teams that have built their team around pricey free agents. The game of baseball has turned into one of trades, prospects, and analytics, not free agents that are either on the downfall of their career or are injury prone (See: 2014 Rangers lineup). Since about 2010, teams have been better at signing guys to longterm deals during the prime of their career, rather as they get closer to reaching free agency. While this can only buy out a few free agent years, it will likely be the years that the team did not buy out when the player begins to decline or become hampered by injuries. Take a look at Ryan Howard. Based on my calculations, through the arbitration process, Howard would have become a free agent following either the 2011 or 2012 seasons. Instead of extending Howard to a five-year deal in say, 2009, after Howard had already been one of the league's most prolific sluggers for a few seasons, the Phillies decided to wait until after the 2011 season. Put that into prospective. Had Howard been signed to his five-year, $125 million deal back in 2009, he would likely become a free agent at the end of this season (the Phillies have a sixth year as a team option). That means Philadelphia would "only" have to deal with three terrible seasons from Howard. The Phillies did extend Howard following the 2011 season, so he is under contract through 2016, with an option for 2017. The Phillies could perhaps deal with five terrible seasons from Howard, paying him over $20 million in each and every one of them. In short, the window hasn't closed for big market teams. But big market teams that still rely on old methods of signing contracts, giving extensions, and the traditional method of scouting will have a very difficult time contending in a major league system that has developed into a very analytical organization. So while the forward thinkers continue to thrive, the traditionalists will continue to fall. It is time for the Phillies, Yankees, and Rangers to finally change their ways. --Devan F. "Now batting for the Yankees, number 2, shortstop Derek Jeter. Number 2," echoed through Yankees Stadium for the last time on Thursday night. Derek. Jeter. If you say those two words to any person in America -- baseball fan or not -- they'll likely have something to say, memories to relive. Jeter is a leader. Jeter is a fighter. Jeter is a ballplayer. There isn't is any other player in this game that you give those qualities. Every shortstop out in Little League wants to become the next of him, wants to do what he does, and wants to be like him. And with good reason. Regardless of his accomplishments on the field, Derek Jeter is one of the most respected people in America. He gives to charity. He even has his own foundation! He plays the game the right way. And he has been in the spotlight ever since Jeter came up to the show as a baby-faced rookie at the age of 21. And since appearing in 15 games in 1995, Jeter has been the shortstop. It's hard to imagine how baseball will go on without him. We are used to seeing number 2 suit up for the New York Yankees every day. And yet, we know that he will never be putting on the pinstripes ever again. He has recorded 3,463 hits (in counting), good for sixth all-time in the Major Leagues. He has been to 13 All-Star Games, a mind-boggeling stat within itself. He has five World Series rings, including the 2000 World Series MVP. And he has played in enough postseason games -- 158 -- to account for another season in itself. He has a career .308 average in October. I remember when Jeter got his 3,000th hit. It was a hot July day, July 9, 2011, to be exact. Jeter was sitting on 2,998 hits. After a single in the first for his 2,999th hit, fans become anxious for Jeter's 3,000th. He delivered, but not in any ordinary fashion. Jeter homered for hit number 3,000. Although power has never been a big part of Jeter's game, his 3,000th hit left the yard, only the second player in MLB history (Wade Boggs) to do that. Of course, Jeter ended the game with 3,003 hits, going 5-for-5 on the day. We thought that was a storybook ending. Two nights ago, in Jeter's final game at Yankees Stadium, and likely his final game playing shortstop for the Bronx Bombers, Jeter played an emotional role in the Yankees victory. Like Mariano Rivera last season, Jeter could have been pulled in the final inning, walking off to a standing ovation with the Yankees leading 5-2. However, after two Baltimore homers, the game was tied, and Jeter was due up third in the bottom of the ninth. With a runner on second base and only one out, Jeter really walked off to a standing ovation in Yankees Stadium. Both figuratively and literally. Jeter took the first pitch opposite field to right, hitting a walk-off RBI Single to cap his Yankees Stadium career. An emotional crowd and an emotional Jeter witnessed history once again. Anyone who can say they saw Jeter in person has seen a part of baseball history. It doesn't matter if he went 5-for-5, was the hero, or even struck out three times. Jeter is an icon. Jeter is a legend. Anyone who says they saw him play witnessed something very special. They witnessed something that they can tell their grandchildren. "You really saw Jeter play?" they would ask, wide-eyed. "Yep, with my two own eyes," you respond. You can tell them all about Jeter and what he has done for baseball. I wish Jeter all the best in retirement. I, along with baseball fans everywhere, will always have a soft spot when you hear the name itself. "Now batting for the Yankees, number 2, shortstop Derek Jeter..." --Devan F. |