We're three weeks from baseball season. Almost there, readers! This Saturday, you're going to have to settle for another division preview, though. After doing the entire National League over the past three weeks (if you missed them, they're further down on the blog), I flip over to the Junior Circuit American League, beginning today with a very competitive AL East.
1. Boston Red Sox -- 2015 Record: 78-84; Projection: 90-72 In the second half of the 2015 season, the Red Sox finally saw the production they were hoping for from their young players. From August 1 through the rest of the season, Boston went 32-26 and almost finished .500 even though they were 12 games under coming. An exciting breath of youth for Sox fans was seen at the end of last season, and this offseason, a new regime in the front office supplemented to their promising roster in hopes to make a playoff run. Perhaps the most intriguing player for the Red Sox in 2016 is Mookie Betts, who looks to build off of a fantastic age-22 campaign. He hit for an .820 OPS (118 OPS+) in his first full season in the Majors, solidifying himself in Boston's outfield for years to come. Joining him in the 2016 lineup will be a good mix of up-and-comers as well as seasoned veterans, including designated hitter David Ortiz, who is planning on retiring after the season, his 20th. In the pitching staff, the Red Sox get a huge boost with the additions of David Price via free agency and Craig Kimbrel in a trade. The rotation still has some questions, especially surrounding Rick Porcello and Clay Buchholz, but a true ace will definitely help this team, as Price is exactly what the Sox lacked in 2015. Kimbrel, on the other hand, will step in as closer and should be able to fix other woes Boston has had in years past. David Price, Craig Kimbrel, and the young talents will lead the Red Sox to the 2016 AL East crown. Maybe even Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez will chip in too! 2. New York Yankees -- 2015 Record: 87-75; Projection: 88-74 The Yankees can win this division. They could've won the division last year too, but settled for a Wild Card spot. The Bronx Bombers lost the one-game playoff to Dallas Keuchel and the Houston Astros, ending their season abruptly. But a pair of offseason moves should help the Yanks make a run deep into the 2016 season as well, operating with the best bullpen in baseball. Yankees relief pitching posted the third-highest FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement (fWAR) as a group in 2015, and then they went out and traded for Aroldis Chapman, the game's best relief pitcher, this offseason. However, Chapman will miss the season's first 30 games due to a suspension after a domestic violence incident that did not result in an arrest. Albeit the suspension, the Yankees still boast Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller in the back of the 'pen, and they should be more than capable of shutting down opposing lineups at the end of games. The rotation is this team's only question, as just like in 2015, they do not have a true No. 1 starter. Masahiro Tanaka does appear at the top of their rotation, but he did not have an ace-like season last year. The Yankees do have one of my personal favorites, Nathan Eovaldi, in their rotation. His stuff is fantastic (100+ MPH fastball), and he had a 3.2 fWAR season in 2015. As for the lineup, the Yankees are returning most of their veterans and add the likes of Starlin Castro. They will score runs. And lots of them. But will it be enough to win the American League East? I just don't see the team on top at the end of the year. 3. Toronto Blue Jays -- 2015 Record: 93-69; Projection: 86-76 The Blue Jays made the playoffs for the for the first time since 1993 in 2015, and they concluded their season with their fans wanting more, losing the American League Championship Series to the Kansas City Royals. Despite this, the Blue Jays proved that their offensive-minded team can win but only after they acquired David Price at the trade deadline were they able to run away with the division. The Blue Jays' record before July 31 was 53-51. Their record after July 31 was 40-18. While this rapid improvement cannot all be credited to Price (they also got Troy Tulowitzki at the deadline, you know), he did provide something they lacked during the first part of the season: an anchor at the top of the rotation. Price is no longer in Toronto this season, and this means that someone else will have to step it up in order for the team to repeat their successes. It could be Marcus Stroman, who allowed just five earned runs in 27 innings after coming back from injury. But even if he does pitch well, the depth they have just isn't the same. Mark Buehrle is also gone. Besides Stroman, their pitching staff consists of: R.A. Dickey, Marco Estrada, J.A. Happ (new addition), and Aaron Sanchez. I'm not a fan. However, there are no holes in this lineup. They've got AL MVP Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Tulowitzki, and Russell Martin all in one lineup. There's no way to pitch to this team, who scored 891 runs last season (5.5 R/G), the best in baseball by almost 130. There's no doubt in my mind that their offense will have issues in 2016, but the Blue Jays' downfall comes in the form of their rotation. And I'll let you in on a little secret: There aren't any David Prices that are likely to be available at this season's trade deadline. 4. Tampa Bay Rays -- 2015 Record: 80-82; Projection: 84-78 The 2015 Rays were average. They finished just two games under .500, scored 644 runs, and allowed 642 runs. Their season had its ups and downs, from leading the division by as many as a pair of games and being as far behind as 15 1/2. At the end, the Rays finished 13 out of the Blue Jays and missed the playoffs for the second straight season. This offseason, the club acquired Corey Dickerson from the Rockies for Jake McGee and brought in Logan Morrison and Brad Miller via Seattle. If the Rays want to win in 2016, they'll need some bounce back seasons from Matt Moore and Drew Smyly, who each missed a good portion of the 2015 season due to injury. Moore is just three years removed from an All-Star season, and Smyly had a 3.24 ERA in 153 innings in 2014. Those two will fall behind the anchors in the Rays rotation: Chris Archer and Jake Odorizzi, both of whom had stellar years. In the bullpen, the Rays lost McGee, a back-end reliever, to Colorado, but still retain Brad Boxberger and Alex Colome to shut down opposing lineups at the end of games. As for their lineup, the Rays don't really have a big bat. Despite this, every player in their lineup has the ability to be productive. Even Evan Longoria, who led the team with 21 homers, posted a 110 OPS+ in 2015 (10% above league average). This could come back to bite the team, as they'll have to go up against some of the toughest lineups in baseball in their very division. I still wouldn't rule out the possibility of the Rays making a wild run in the American League, but going into the season, they just appear to be a bit behind most of their fellow AL East members. 5. Baltimore Orioles -- 2015 Record: 81-81; Projection: 77-85 The Orioles are going to be haunted by their lack of pitching in 2016. Even last year, Orioles' starters posted the sixth-highest ERA in baseball. Now, they get Yovani Gallardo on a free agent deal but lose Wei-Yin Chen to the Marlins. The loss of Chen may not seem like a big deal, but to Baltimore, it could mean everything. He was their best starter, posting a 3.34 ERA in 31 outings. The rest of their staff isn't deep. Ubaldo Jimenez, Chris Tillman, Miguel Gonzalez, and Kevin Gausman round out the O's rotation, with Tillman and Gonzalez posting ERAs above 4.90. Even Gallardo, who registered a 3.42 ERA last year and is supposed to help anchor the starters, is showing signs of age with diminished velocity and a relatively average FIP and strikeout-to-walk ratio in 2015. As for the bullpen, the Orioles are set. Darren O'Day re-signed with the club this offseason, and Zach Britton was named an All-Star with a 1.92 ERA (2.01 FIP) last season. As for the innings between their starters and back-end relievers, there is a lot of unknown in Baltimore. Vance Worley, T.J. McFarland, and even Dylan Bundy could be used as middle relievers. I don't have a problem with the Orioles' offense, and I may even prefer it to the Rays'. Chris Davis is back with the team, complementing Manny Machado, Adam Jones, Matt Wieters, and two new additions, Mark Trumbo and Korean signee Hyun-soo Kim. Their offense will have to step it up to win high-scoring games if they want to beat their projection this season. And even if this does occur, the Orioles may still only have the third- or fourth-best offense in the AL East. This could be a rough year for O's fans. Next up: AL Central --Devan Fink
0 Comments
The New York Yankees are back in the playoffs. With a 4-1 win over the Red Sox last night, the Bronx Bombers clinched a Wild Card spot and are all but guaranteed to be playing the game in the Big Apple.
Taking a look at the Yankees, however, you can see that they really do not have an ace. They have a handful of solid starters, but do not have the No. 1 pitcher to anchor their staff. So who do the Yankees start in the AL Wild Card Game on Tuesday? The safe choice -- Masahiro Tanaka Tanaka pitched on September 30, making him the most rested option on the Yankees staff, assuming he won't start again this year. Tanaka also has been the most consistent starter for New York, going 12-7 with a 3.51 ERA and 3.99 FIP in 154 innings, posting a solid 139 to 27 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He's been even better as of late, working to a 3.06 ERA in September, along with a great 29 to 3 strikeout-to-walk ratio and .659 OPS against in 32 1/3 innings. Assuming the game is at home, Tanaka would have to avoid the long ball in the hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. Tanaka has allowed 17 home runs in just 87 1/3 innings there, but has still managed to work to a respectable 3.71 ERA in New York. High risk, high reward - Michael Pineda The 26-year-old Pineda has shown flashes of brilliance. On May 10, Pineda struck out 16 Orioles hitters over seven innings of work, allowing just one run. His ERA was a fantastic 2.72. In just a month half, Pineda was showing the Yankees why they traded then-top prospect Jesus Montero for him. Since, he hasn't been as good and the strikeout totals have diminished. On the season, even with that performance, Pineda isn't even averaging a strikeout per inning. There can be a case for Pineda too. Again the victim of the long ball at home, Pineda has averaged more strikeouts per nine innings at Yankee Stadium than on the road. He had a decent September, but when he is on, he could be arguably the best pitcher on the Yankee staff. In a one-game playoff, though, he may not be the best option. On the season, Pineda is 12-9 with a 4.24 ERA and 151 to 21 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 157 innings. The dark horse - Luis Severino The rookie Severino would definitely be an interesting option to start the AL Wild Card game. Since the 21-year-old top prospect first appeared in the big leagues on August 5, he has been the Yankees' lightning in a bottle. Severino is 5-3 with a 2.77 ERA and 50 to 22 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 55 1/3 innings. Severino's best start game on August 29, when he went six innings in Atlanta, allowing just four hits and striking out five, compared to three walks. He has, again, shown flashes of what he can be. The issue with him, however, is he does not pitch deep into ballgames, with the Yankees not letting him pitch past the sixth inning yet this season, probably in an attempt to save his arm for the future. Though the Yankees bullpen is good, they would probably prefer a pitcher with experience pitching late into games to limit how long their bullpen will have to pitch. Severino may be an interesting option, but his lack of experience hurts. My choice for the Yankees Wild Card starter? Pencil in Masahiro Tanaka if you named me manager. --Devan Fink
Using Baseball Prospectus' playoff odds, you should be able to tell who has the best chance of doing just that. Teams really should take those odds to determine whether they should be buyers and sellers because more often than not, they are right.
After games being played on July 6 last year, five of the ten eventual postseason teams had a 80 percent chance of making the playoffs or better. Every team that did have an 80 percent or greater chance of making the playoffs on this date last year did. The team with the highest percent chance to make the playoffs on July 6 that ultimately didn't was the Milwaukee Brewers, who had a 71 percent chance to punch their ticket, but collapsed down the stretch and failed to make it. Only three (Orioles, Royals, and Pirates) had less than a 50 percent chance of making the playoffs following action on July 6. By July 31, the Orioles were up to a 71 percent chance, the Royals were at a 17 percent chance, and the Pirates were at a 46 percent chance. Knowing this, I will use Baseball Prospectus' current postseason predictions to determine who should buy and who should sell at the 2015 Trade Deadline. All In (85% or greater)
St. Louis Cardinals (99.3%)
There's no reason why the Cardinals, who own MLB's best record at 54-28, should consider selling. In fact, Baseball Prospectus says that they have a 99.3 percent chance of making the playoffs, leaving just a very small chance for an extreme collapse. If the Cardinals play just .500 ball the rest of the way, that would put them on pace for 94 wins, which would definitely put them in prime position to punch their ticket to the postseason. The Cardinals have no reason to do anything but buy. Los Angeles Dodgers (92.9%) The Dodgers have the second-highest playoff percentage in the league, and nothing suggests that this team won't buy at the trade deadline. I predicted them to go out and get Johnny Cueto, perhaps the best pitcher available not named Cole Hamels. The Dodgers are always willing to spend money and prospects to make their team better and can easily justify doing so at the deadline. Washington Nationals (85.6%) The Nationals have arguably not played their best baseball yet, but still have an 85.6 percent chance to make the playoffs. They could use some reinforcements in their bullpen, but most of the additions the Nationals will be getting will be players coming back from injury, such as Jayson Werth, Ryan Zimmerman, and Stephen Strasburg. They may not need to make a ton of moves in July, but if they do, they have good reason to do so. Houston Astros (84.7%) The Astros have already shown interest in some of the top pitchers that will be available, and Baseball Prospectus' playoff odds completely backs that up. Houston's playoff percentage, at 84.7 percent, is so close to 85 percent that I had to shove them into this category. The Astros have showed that while they are a bit of a surprise, they still can win ballgames and do it over a period of time. The Astros by no means are "pretenders," as they have been able to hold a comfortable AL West lead since late April. Should be buyers (70-85%)
Pittsburgh Pirates (81.3%), Chicago Cubs (73.1%)
The Pirates and Cubs have a case of some serious bad luck. They are playing in the National League's toughest division and would be either leading or close to leading any other division in the league. The only reason I'm wary of either of these teams buying at the deadline is because they are not division leaders and have more of a chance to collapse and fall out of the playoff race altogether. Unless they believe they have a real shot at the Cardinals (which it appears they don't), they shouldn't completely unload their farm systems to go out and get the best guy on the market. Kansas City Royals (75.3%) Of the three teams in this category, I am most comfortable with the Royals buying at the trade deadline due to the fact that they lead their division by a comfortable margin and need just one or two pieces to really put the pressure on the rest of the division. All signs point to the Royals making the playoffs again this year, so I would go ahead and pencil them in as buyers at the deadline. Justifiable (30-70%)
Los Angeles Angels (64.8%)
The Angels are in a good position right now. They are playing good baseball and have shown the need for an upgrade in left field. Of the teams listed in this section, I truly believe they are the best and most complete team, so therefore they should be buyers at the deadline. The Angels could use some rotation help as well, but if they patch up a few spots, they will get into the postseason. My verdict? They should be buyers. AL East: New York Yankees (59.4%), Toronto Blue Jays (39.6%), Tampa Bay Rays (34.9%) The American League East division is lumped together because the division is so muddled and close that really anyone could win it. Baseball Prospectus' simulations give the Yankees the best chance to go to the playoffs out of that division, but with some rotation help, the Blue Jays are the division's best team. The Yankees and Rays should stand pat or make small moves at the deadline, while the Blue Jays should go out and make a splash for a rotation piece. Detroit Tigers (36.7%) With Miguel Cabrera being sidelined with his hamstring injury, I'm going to pencil the Tigers in as should be sellers, but as this team continues to try and make a run once again, they will find themselves trying to buy. The Tigers are heading towards a Phillies-esque fall, and if they don't realize that soon, it could only get worse if they decide to buy at the trade deadline in hopes for one last run at the World Series. Maybe/Stand Pat (20-30%)
New York Mets (28.9%)
Even if the Mets added an offensive piece, I don't think that would be enough to get them to the playoffs this season. With that said, however, I could see them dealing for a guy with more than one season of control, as their young and talented pitching staff comes into their own. The Mets couldn't justify buying for a rental player, but a guy who is at least signed through 2016 could make sense. Baltimore Orioles (28.7%) The Baltimore Orioles have a ton of free agents at the end of the season that they probably should move. The Orioles could be one of those teams that tries to get 25-man roster guys with more years of team control in return. The Orioles could be a team that buys and sells at the trade deadline, and I would be fine with that. San Francisco Giants (22.9%) It's an odd year. The Giants aren't good enough to win the NL West, and considering that they have to deal with the Cubs and Pirates for the Wild Card, it will be tough for them to really make a run into the postseason. However, they still have a good core group of guys and the team has proved me wrong before. They probably should stand pat. Shouldn't buy (Less than 20%)
Minnesota Twins (18.2%)
The Twins just aren't that good. Sure, they had a good run earlier this season, but all the numbers suggest that they were going to fall out of first in the AL Central. The Twins should really try and go for 2016, when some of their rookies will be more polished. Texas Rangers (15.0%) While the Rangers shouldn't buy, they probably will, as I consider them to be in a similar boat as the Tigers are in. The Rangers could legitimately contend, but they would more than a couple of upgrades, to the point where they probably shouldn't go for it this season. Cleveland Indians (13.5%) The Indians were a popular postseason pick prior to this season, but Baseball Prospectus' simulations show that they would need some serious luck to actually get there. The Indians shouldn't sell any pieces other than the impending free agents because my gut says that they will be back in the postseason sooner than later. Boston Red Sox (11.8%) The Red Sox are in a tough position right now. It might not be time for a fire sale quite yet, but it's definitely not time to go out and try and contend this season. Seattle Mariners (7.0%) The Mariners have had some issues staying in the race this season, and while they shouldn't sell off their entire team, they really shouldn't be buyers either. Oakland Athletics (6.8%) The Athletics are already shopping their pieces and it looks like they will be sellers. Arizona Diamondbacks (6.4%) The Diamondbacks are a team that should stand pat. They still have pieces to contend in the near future and as their pitching improves with guys coming back from injury, they could be a legitimate contender coming 2016. Atlanta Braves (3.8%) The Braves, especially in the offseason, have committed to becoming a selling team. They don't have any exciting pieces, but even though they have kind of surprised, they should by no means buy. Chicago White Sox (3.2%) The White Sox are in a tough position. They reportedly won't have a fire sale, which makes sense considering how much money they spent in free agency, but they need to get rid of Jeff Samardzija and still be planning to try again in 2016. San Diego Padres (2.7%) The Padres could buy at the deadline, but in all reality, they shouldn't. They've got some important games coming up that they need to win if people start seriously seeing them as contenders. Once again, they are proving that the winners of the offseason don't necessarily win during the season. Miami Marlins (1.6%) The Marlins shouldn't go into a fire sale, but Mat Latos, Dan Haren, Brad Hand, and other free agents at the end of the season should be gone. Cincinnati Reds (1.1%) The Reds have Johnny Cueto, Mike Leake, and possibly Aroldis Chapman available, and while they won't sell until after they host the All-Star Game, I expect it to come, as it should. Colorado Rockies (0.2%) I'd pull the trigger and deal Troy Tulowitzki. It's time for a real change in Colorado if they want to be relevant down the road. Milwaukee Brewers (0.2%) The Brewers should enter into a fire sale. Philadelphia Phillies (0.0%) Sellers. Now, these rankings and categories don't mean that each of these teams will do as I advise. Their postseason percentages could change and perhaps an addition is all they need to do that. However, Baseball Prospectus' odds are very accurate and should not be taken lightly. Teams really should use them to determine whether they could justify buying at the deadline. --Devan Fink
Jeff Samardzija has been in this position before.
Last season at this time, Samardzija was nearing the end of his career as a member of the Chicago Cubs. He was dealt to Oakland in a multi-player deal in July. At the time of his trade, Samardzija was one of the best pitchers in the game. He went 2-7 with a 3.03 ERA with the Cubs last year, striking out 100 as opposed to 29 walks in 101 innings. This time around, Samardzija is in a bit of a different position. He is a member of a Chicago organization -- this time the White Sox -- but is not pitching nearly as well. He's 5-4 with a 4.53 ERA through 101.1 innings. Despite those "ugly" numbers, Samardzija has had some particularly bad luck, as his 3.67 FIP suggests that with some better defense his ERA would be nearly a run lower. His 84 to 17 strikeout-to-walk ratio also is an indication that things will turn around. Samardzija has been hurting from a .338 batting average on balls in play, 39 points higher than his career average. Again, with some better defense Samardzija is just as good as he was last year. When the White Sox, who were one of the bigger spenders this offseason, decide to rebuild following their 32-40 record through their first 72 games, Samardzija should be the first to go. For teams in the market for starting pitching, like the Astros, Blue Jays, Yankees, Giants, or even Dodgers, this has to be a welcome sight. Samardzija might be the most valuable addition for any club this trade deadline season. First, he's a free agent this offseason, which means that if the White Sox do decide to move him, he'll be cheaper for acquiring teams than if he had more years of team control. Second, his numbers aren't stellar. Any team could point to the fact that his 4.53 ERA should keep them from giving up very many top prospects in any deal. Third, the saber stats do show that, with better defense, Samardzija can be an ace in any staff. So, to recap, a team could be getting a free agent to-be at a discounted price due to poor performances and could end up getting an ace out of it. He may not be Cole Hamels or Johnny Cueto, but he's ready to become a key member of a new pitching staff for a contender down the stretch. His name is Jeff Samardzija and your team should go out and trade for him. --Devan Fink The only Baseball America number one prospect since 1990 (excluding 2014 and 2015 top prospects Byron Buxton and Kris Bryant, who both may be in the Major Leagues as soon as this year) to not make the Major Leagues goes by the name of Brien Taylor.
Taylor turned 43 last month and has been out of professional baseball for 15 years. In 1991, the Yankees picked Taylor with the 1st overall pick out of East Carteret High School in Beufort, North Carolina. Taylor, the second of four children, was born to a mason and a crab picker. He played on the baseball team at East Carteret and as Taylor's onetime advisor Scott Boras put it in 2006, "Brien Taylor, still to this day, is the best high school pitcher I've seen in my life." Taylor often hit 98 and 99 on the gun in high school. During his four years, he totaled a win-loss record of 29-6 with a 1.25 ERA. He struck out 213 hitters in 88 innings pitched. Scouts marveled at the success of Taylor. "There are certain pitchers who come along every so often and you don't know how to describe them," said Mike Fox, the head coach at the University of North Carolina. "Well, you can describe Brien pretty quickly: No one could touch him." Taylor going number one overall to the Yankees was hardly a surprise. New York offered him a $300,000 signing bonus, the typical amount for a top draft choice at the time. The money was already a life changing amount for his family, but under the discretion of Boras, Taylor held out for more money. He held out to the point where the Yankees signed him for $1.55 million the day before he would have headed to a local community college on scholarship. Taylor wasn't able to get a scholarship from a top university; his grades were poor in high school, but even still he was able to pressure the Yankees into signing him to the largest bonus ever. Even before Taylor stepped on a professional mound, Baseball America ranked him as the top prospect in all of baseball. In 1992, at the age of 20, Taylor pitched 161.1 innings at the High Single-A level, posting a strikeout percentage of 28.2 percent (strikeouts/batters faced) and a walk percentage of 9.9 percent. Those numbers earned Taylor a promotion to Double-A for the 1993 season. Taylor wasn't as good in Double-A as he was the year before, but people could not fathom a 21-year-old lefty having a ton of success at that high of a level in the minors. In simpler terms, the small regression was expected. He still went 13-7 with a 3.48 ERA that year, as both his strikeout and walk percentages didn't reach the same numbers as the prior season. The Yankees planned for Taylor to pitch in Triple-A in 1994 and be in the Major Leagues by 1995 at the latest. Initially, New York planned for Taylor to be on the fast track to the Majors, like how the Mets expedited Dwight Gooden's debut. However, they found that he needed to hold runners at first better, and decided to have him progress through systematically. Anyway, in 1993, Taylor was injured while defending his brother in a fistfight. He and his cousin went to confront Ron Wilson, the man who hurt his brother, but instead got into an altercation with the man's friend, Jamie Morris. According to Wilson, Taylor hurt his shoulder when throwing and missing a punch at Morris. Following the incident, Boras told reporters that Taylor had just suffered a bruise. That was not the case. The Yankees had Taylor visit Dr. Frank Jobe, the same man who preformed the first "Tommy John surgery" on Dodgers pitcher Tommy John. Jobe called Taylor's injury one of the worst he had ever seen. Jobe repaired a torn capsule and a torn glenoid labrum in his shoulder. Essentially, he tore his shoulder right out of its socket. He missed the entire 1994 season. Taylor would come back to baseball in 1995 and over the next four seasons he never was able to get back to Double-A. In 108 2/3 innings from 1995 to 1998, Taylor walked an astounding 175 hitters, and failed to top 90 mph with his fastball. His tenure with the Yankees came to an end after the 1998 season after he could no longer get hitters out in Single-A ball. The Mariners gave Taylor a chance in 1999, but he was released following inconsistency in his extended Spring Training games. "Sometimes I get the ball across the plate, sometimes I feel like I've never held a ball in my life," Taylor said in 1996. Taylor signed with the Indians in 2000 and did make their Single-A team. But at age 28, he could not find his former self within him. He pitched 2 2/3 innings with Cleveland's Single-A Columbus team, giving up 11 runs (eight earned), while walking nine and striking out just two. That was the end of Taylor's career, giving him the title of "perhaps the best pitcher we never got to see." After retiring from the game, Taylor moved to Raleigh, North Carolina with his five daughters and worked as a UPS package handler, then as a beer distributor. He moved back home by 2006, working as a bricklayer with his father. In 2005, Taylor was charged with misdemeanor child abuse, after leaving four of his daughters (ages 2-11) home for more than eight hours. Taylor was charged with cocaine trafficking in 2012 and was charged with 38 months in prison in August of that year. After being released in September of last year, Taylor will be supervised for the next three years. Brien Taylor has practically fallen off the face of the Earth. Why is all this important? As we approach the 2015 season, many fans will be watching for their team's top prospects to improve at the minor league level. Every prospect comes with a little bit of doubt. This is an extreme example, but even though Taylor showed promise and progression, one injury or incident can ruin a player's career forever. The minor leagues are practically a black hole. If any player can survive them with health and with success, then they are going places. Prospects are exactly that, prospects. Some may turn out to be great, while others, like Taylor, will be the failure stories for many years to come. Teams have to put way more effort into the background of their draftees and make sure that they aren't only a good ballplayer, but a good person as well. I'm not saying Taylor isn't. But maybe if he had made better choices, he would have been a better player. Taylor changed the MLB Draft and how fans look at prospects forever. And taught everyone a valuable lesson. Prospects are just prospects. --Devan Fink All quotes are not mine. They are from outside sources. |