The 2014 MLB Draft starts on June 5. Over 2,000 young men will become professional baseball players, as teams hope to find their future starts. I'll be covering the draft on Twitter, so make sure you are following and check it out as the draft goes on. Here are my predictions for how the first round plays out: 1. Houston Astros -- Brady Aiken, LHP, Cathedral Catholic High School (CA) Aiken has the perfect pitcher frame; he's 6 foot, 3 inches, and weighs 210 pounds. The 18-year-old throws a fastball into the low 90s, many project it could reach the 92-94 range; has a solid curve that has a good break, it could become a plus offering; and has great deception on his change-up, which could also be a plus offering into the future. 2. Miami Marlins -- Carlos Rodon, LHP, North Carolina State Carlos Rodon has a shot to go to the Astros at number one, but I think he'll fall to the Marlins at two. Rondon has a fastball that can touch 97 mph and can overpower hitters late in the count with a fantastic slider. He's working on a change-up that could be an average pitch into the future. He's got the durability and frame to become a number one starter when it is all set and done. 3. Chicago White Sox -- Tyler Kolek, RHP, Shepard High School (TX) The Chicago White Sox haven't selected a pitcher in the first round since they picked Chris Sale in 2010. They won't pick another position player here. Simply put, Tyler Kolek has the best fastball of the entire draft class. He can hit 97-99 mph routinely and can touch 100 on the gun. His command isn't top notch, but if it comes, watch out. Kolek has been compared to Nolan Ryan in the past. 4. Chicago Cubs -- Aaron Nola, RHP, LSU The Cubs have plenty of bats in their system, but pitching comes more at a premium. Aaron Nola, the righty coming from Louisiana State, can balance their organization. He hit the low to mid 90s with his fastball with some sink, a fantastic curveball, that, when he's on, can make anyone swing and miss, and a decent change that sometimes flashes plus. He's got good command and hits his spots. Of the 2014 draft prospects, Nola has the best chance to reach his ceiling and make the big leagues first. 5. Minnesota Twins -- Nick Gordon, SS, Olympia High School (FL) The Twins have been connected to Gordon, and he will be drafted here. While passing up Alex Jackson, perhaps the best offensive player in the draft, they are getting a speedy shortstop with a fantastic glove. The brother of Dee, Nick Gordon has a nice line drive stroke with some pop, making him the best shortstop in the 2014 class. The Twins have a lot of pitching in their system, but are lacking some position players. Gordon will add to that. 6. Seattle Mariners -- Alex Jackson, C/OF, Rancho Bernardo High School (CA) This pick will enrage the Phillies, who need another bat in their system. Jackson could, and just might, be a top five pick, but I predict he falls to the Mariners at number six. While the Mariners have hitting in their system, they cannot pass up on Jackson, who's bat could post a .280 average with 25-35 homers in the big leagues. While he has a good arm behind the plate, many expect him to move to the outfield to maximize his bat. 7. Philadelphia Phillies -- Kyle Freeland, LHP, Evansville The Phillies farm system improved via their last draft, so I expect them to continue to boost their stock with the seventh overall selection. They take the best available player on the boards, picking Kyle Freeland of Evansville. Freeland can touch 94 with the fastball, while many expect that to rise as his big frame could bring that into the mid-90s. He's got a good slider and a good changeup, which could be an above average and a plus pitch, respectively. 8. Colorado Rockies -- Sean Newcomb, LHP, Hartford The University of Hartford has only had one player drafted before the tenth round (Jeff Bagwell, 4th Round) ever. Sean Newcomb will change that. He'll likely be a top ten pick, and I believe he'll go to the Rockies at number eight. He has a fastball that can reach 97 miles per hour, a slider with some bite, a change up, and a curveball. Although his command is not top quality, few can match his velocity. 9. Toronto Blue Jays -- Trea Turner, SS, North Carolina State The Blue Jays get two selections in the top fifteen, at numbers nine and eleven. They select shortstop Trea Turner at number nine from North Carolina State. Turner has excellent speed and will be a threat to run whenever he is on the basepaths, is a decent fielder, and will likely bat at the top of the order. While his swing still needs improvement to get more line drives, Turner's speed will likely have him land at nine. 10. New York Mets -- Michael Confronto, OF, Oregon State The Mets have some great pitching prospects. A college outfielder would definitely be a great compliment to that. Michael Confronto from Oregon State is Baseball America's highest rated outfielder (except for Alex Jackson who is a C/OF) and for could reason. Confronto has the opportunity to hit 25 or more home runs in the majors due to his size and uppercut he has in his swing. He swings and misses a lot, so his average shouldn't be great, but his average defense and above average power should be enough to land him at number 10. 11. Toronto Blue Jays -- Touki Toussaint, RHP, Coral Springs High School (FL) The Blue Jays have a very strong connection with Toussaint, so there is no reason why he shouldn't be drafted by them. Toussaint's fastball operates in the 91-93 range, but has hit 97; his curveball has so much downward action that catchers can barely catch it; and his changeup needs work, as he throws it too hard into the mid-80s. Toussaint, however, does have good promise, and the Blue Jays should be willing to take a chance on him here at number 11. 12. Milwaukee Brewers -- Max Pentecost, C, Kennessaw State The Brewers could go with a number of players here, but they are particularly weak at catcher in their organization. Pentecost has a good line drive swing and is smart in the batter's box. He also can post minimal power numbers, you might be able to get around 15 home runs in the majors. He's a decent backstop, as his arm is very good, but it needs work on accuracy. Many expect that Pentecost will be able to remain at the catcher position, so the Brewers will nab him here at number 12. 13. San Diego Padres -- Brandon Finnegan, LHP, Texas Christian If anyone has the best chance ten years down the road to be considered a "steal" in this draft, Finnegan is it. He has a commanding fastball that can reach up to 98 on the gun, a good feel for a change up that could be above average, and a swing and miss "slurve-like" pitch. He's got decent command that keeps runners off of base via the walk and hit by pitch, and repeats his motion very nicely. Let me tell you again: Finnegan will be dominating hitters in the majors in just a few years. 14. San Francisco Giants -- Grant Holmes, RHP, Conway High School (SC) The Giants have been connected to Holmes, so it's very likely they select him. Holmes can really throw the heater, touching triple digits at times. He has a ridiculous curveball that is harder than normal, but has great spin and depth. His changeup is still developing, something that will need to happen in order for Holmes to make it big at the next level. The Giants are good at developing some talent, so I think Holmes will be put into a good situation in San Francisco. 15. Los Angeles Angels -- Kyle Schwarber, C/1B, Indiana The Angles will likely be looking for an advanced college bat to help them in the near future. Schwarber perfectly fits that mold as he has some very good power, while also working counts in his favor. People view him as a 30+ homer player if he can remain healthy and play everyday, which is why he could be making the move to first base in the near future. Besides C.J Cron, the Angels really don't have very powerful first baseman or catchers in their organization. Schwarber will change that. 16. Arizona Diamondbacks -- Bradley Zimmer, OF, San Francisco Zimmer has a fantastic swing that keeps him in the first round of this draft. He hits line drives to all fields and could provide some power if he adds loft to his swing. Regardless, he's a very solid choice. Zimmer has good instincts on the base paths and has decent speed as well. He could play center field, but his arm definitely has the makings of a corner outfielder. 17. Kansas City Royals -- Tyler Beede, RHP, Vanderbilt The Royals like their pitching, and Beede is no exception. He can pitch. Beede throws quite a heater; sitting around 92-94 and topping out a 97. He has a sharp curveball and good changeup, both looking like above average pitches into the future. He was selected in the first round of the 2011 MLB Draft by the Blue Jays, but decided to attend Vanderbilt. He was dominant and set a school-record 14 victories last spring. Beede could go higher, but his command has some issues. 18. Washington Nationals -- Derek Hill, OF, Elk Grove High School (CA) Hill's dad, Orsino, is a scout for the Los Angeles Dodgers, but likely won't get his shot at his son at pick 22, as Derek will likely be a top-20 selection. I have him going here to the Nationals, and even though they like college bats, Hill has the chance to be something special. He flies on the basepaths, is a fantastic defender, and offers a very good line drive swing with a nice approach. Hill has the chance to add some power as he gets older, something to perhaps make him more valuable. 19. Cincinnati Reds -- Monte Harrison, OF, Lee's Summit West High School (MO) The Reds like Harrison because of his athletic ability, and while this may be a bit of a reach at 19, he's definitely worth a look late in the first round. Harrison has a ton of raw talent, as he has committed to Nebraska to play both football and baseball. Harrison's bat needs some improvement, but if he solely focuses on baseball, it should definitely speed that up. His arm is his best asset; he was clocked throwing 97 mph from center field during the Perfect Game National in June. 20. Tampa Bay Rays -- Casey Gallipse, 1B, Wichita State Gallipse has awesome power. One scout said that Gallipse was the best switch-hitter he has seen in years and gave him a chance to be Mark Teixeira or Lance Berkman. His power is fantastic -- he led the Cape Cod League with eight homers in 43 games. He shows a great approach and is able to hit for a decent average. The Rays need to add to their diminishing farm system, and a college bat like Gallipse should do exactly that. 21. Cleveland Indians -- Derek Fisher, OF, Virginia The Indians want a college bat, like many of the teams in front of them, so they go with a proven prospect in Derek Fisher. He was drafted by the Rangers in 2011, and turned down a substantial offer to head to Virginia. Well here he is again, and better than ever. Fisher had some issues in his first two years in college, but had a strong showing in the Cape Cod League, posting a .453 on-base percentage. Fisher has raw hitting abilities and power and he could be a plus player into the future. 22. Los Angeles Dodgers -- Erick Feede, RHP, Nevada-Las Vegas The Dodgers would love Feede here. While they really don't need any older pitchers, Feede's upside is great, even though he did just have Tommy John surgery. When healthy, Feede can throw as high as 95 mph, sporting flashes of an above-average slider and a good changeup. His size isn't the biggest, so it is possible that Feede could end up projecting into a really good pitcher. And we know all too well that the Dodgers really like really good pitchers. 23. Detroit Tigers -- Nick Howard, RHP, Virginia Howard is used as the Cavaliers' closer, due to the fact that he can throw into the high 90s, touching 98 at times. He has a really good slider at times, but it can lose its bite. The Tigers might be able to convert Howard back into a starter, which may be the reason for taking him at 23 overall. But I don't have any issues with Howard sticking as a closer, something he might be able to excel at in the majors. 24. Pittsburgh Pirates -- Jacob Gatewood, SS, Clovis High School (CA) This might be a bit low for Gatewood, but it's hard to project him going any higher. The Dodgers, who like players that add value, could nab Gatewood, but I have them going with Feede. Gatewood is a very powerful shortstop and is also a great athlete that has good arm strength. People were concerned about his bat in general, which has hurt his stock over the past few weeks. With a better bat, he could be a top 10 pick, which is why the Pirates could be getting a very nice steal at 24. 25. Oakland Athletics -- Ti'quan Forbes, SS, Columbia High School (MS) Rumor has it that the Athletics like Forbes, so that is who I'm having them go with here. Forbes may be a bit of a reach, but Billy Beane knows young talent better than anyone. He's good across the boards, showing promise fielding, especially with his arm, which could end up moving him to third base. At 6-foot-4, Forbes' bat could improve into being a solid hitter. The Athletics like taking young bats under their wings and improving them. 26. Boston Red Sox -- Micheal Chavis, SS, Sprayberry High School (GA) Chavis is very solid across the boards, but does not have one aspect of his game that wows scouts. He has a good line-drive swing and could hit 18-20 homers in the big leagues. His arm, one of his strengths, could move him to anywhere in the infield. The Red Sox will have many options if/when he comes up to the big leagues. He will likely end up at third base, where many think the Red Sox will draft this year. 27. St. Louis Cardinals -- Luis Ortiz, RHP, Sanger High School (CA) The Cardinals are known for developing young pitching, so it's hard to project them picking anything but a pitcher. Luis Ortiz of Sanger High School has tremendous upside, topping out at 97 mph. He has a slider that can make hitters swing-and-miss, while also having a decent changeup. Ortiz is working on a curveball as well to add to his repertoire as well. There are some injury issues in his forearm, but the Cardinals should be willing to take a chance on him down at number 27.
0 Comments
30. Chicago Cubs (16-27)*
Pitcher Jeff Samardzija is second in the National League in ERA, but has yet to earn a win, going 0-4 in his nine starts. Since 1914, only Whitey Ford and he have gone nine starts, each allowing three or less runs, without getting a win. That goes to show how hard it is for the Cubs to score some runs and win ballgames consistently. 29. Houston Astros (17-29)* Offseason acquisition Dexter Fowler has been the main cog in the offensive attack for the Astros, leading the team in OPS+, on base percentage, and runs scored. Overall, the Astros rank second-to-last in the American League in batting average, last in runs scored, and fourth-to-last in OPS. It's been a tough season all the way around for Houston. 28. Pittsburgh Pirates (18-26)* The Pittsburgh Pirates cannot find that same spark that took them all the way to the postseason last year. Part of the reason could be the play from outfielder Starling Marte, who's OPS+ took a big hit, from 121 to 108. There is reason for hope in Pittsburgh. Their team batting average has gone up 22 points since the beginning of May, but their pitching staff has brought it's ERA up too. Losing five of their last seven does not help, either. 27. Philadelphia Phillies (20-22)* The Phillies are seeing on-and-off play from third baseman Cody Asche so far this season. He has 16 hits and a .333 batting average in the month of May, but seven of those 16 hits have come in the last three games. Without those at bats and hits, Asche would be batting just .250. The Phillies offense has been just like Asche, inconsistent. The Phillies have been shut out five times in May, but have averaged 3.8 runs a game, higher than their April mark of 3.7. 26. Tampa Bay Rays (19-27)* I am not really sure what has gone wrong with the Rays to begin this season. They have scored an adequate amount of runs, have an average American League ERA of 4.20, but are sitting at the bottom of the American League East at 19-26. Injuries seem to be the main issue. Matt Moore is going to miss the entire season, Ben Zobrist has a dislocated thumb, and Jeremy Hellickson recently had right elbow surgery. It does not get much worse than that. 25. Chicago White Sox (23-24)* Jose Abreu is now on the disabled list. He leads the American League in home runs, RBI, slugging percentage, and total bases. He has been the heart and sole of the White Sox. Without him, it looks like they could be falling down this list, and fast. But for now, they are holding their own at number 25, despite losing six of their last eight games. 24. San Diego Padres (21-25)* I expected more from the San Diego Padres going into this season. They really have not been meeting expectations, and injuries have slowed them more than ever. Like the Rays, many of their stars are currently hurt and on the disabled list, including Andrew Cashner and Josh Johnson. In order for the Padres to make a move, their offense has to pick up the pace. They rank second-to-last in the National League in runs scored, but rank second in ERA. 23. Arizona Diamondbacks (18-29)* The Arizona Diamondbacks made a fantastic hire in Tony LaRussa to lead their baseball operations. They have been able to string some wins together in May, going 9-6 thus far, scoring 0.6 more runs per game this month than they have all season. The light is finally starting to be seen at the end of this long dark tunnel. Their pitching is starting to figure it out as well, posting a 3.81 ERA in the month. 22. Cleveland Indians (21-25)* Lonnie Chisenhall has been the Indians best producer this season, posting a .912 OPS, 162 OPS+, and a .364 batting average, all leading the team. Chisenhall has played in only three games against a left-handed pitcher, compared to 31 against righties, causing much uproar across the web. Over his career, Chisenhall has just a .205 batting average against lefties. 21. Texas Rangers (21-24)* Prince Fielder has a herniated disk in his neck, which is just even more great news for Rangers fans. They have 13 players on the disabled list to begin the season, and even Fielder, who had played in 547 straight games, is now going to be on the sidelines, adding yet another player to the lengthy list of names of Rangers that are injured (although Fielder will not be going on the disabled list). The MLB season is just minutes away from kicking off, and I have come with the predictions that you have all been waiting for, my postseason and award picks! After giving a short preview for each team in my division rankings (they are linked in the post), here are my postseason picks! National League East -- Washington Nationals (3) Central -- St. Louis Cardinals (1) West -- Los Angels Dodgers (2) Wild Card -- Philadelphia Phillies (4) Wild Card -- Arizona Diamondbacks (5)
Rookie of the Year: Billy Hamilton, Cincinnati Reds Cy Young: Jose Fernandez, Miami Marlins MVP: Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals Breakout Team: Milwaukee Brewers National League Champion: Washington Nationals American League East -- New York Yankees (2) Central -- Detroit Tigers (1) West -- Los Angeles Angels (3) Wild Card -- Oakland Athletics (4) Wild Card -- Tampa Bay Rays (5)
Rookie of the Year: Masahiro Tanaka, New York Yankees Cy Young: Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers MVP: Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels Breakout Team: Kansas City Royals American League Champion: Detroit Tigers 2014 World Series Prediction Washington Nationals in seven games. The Nationals have the best roster in all of baseball, and after a tough season last year, they will be playing with a chip on their shoulder. With a rotation that includes Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Doug Fister, and Jordan Zimmermann, the Nationals may not have the best regular season record, but can cruise through the postseason. Bryce Harper, my MVP pick, is going to hit 40 or more home runs. Jayson Werth will post a really good average, and Ian Desmond will the fantastic shortstop he is. The Nationals are built to win this World Series, and after having a good off season, there is no doubt in my mind that they do not win it.
The case for the Tigers: The Detroit Tigers offense might just be a little bit better then the Nationals', and they could easily defeat the team with their pitching as well. They have way more postseason experience after having played in the last three consecutive, and they are also built to win a championship as well. Their rotation is just as good as the Nationals', and they've got more star power in their lineup to perhaps beat them. The countdown to Opening Day is getting smaller. We are just five days to the beginning of the Opening Series, and fourteen to Opening Day. Every few days from now to the beginning of the season, I will be previewing one division, leading up to my postseason picks on Opening Night. We will start with the National League East division today. 1. Washington Nationals -- 2013 Record: 86-76; Projected Record: 94-68 The Washington Nationals are my pick to win the 2014 World Series. I have been saying that all off season long, and am sticking by my pick in my NL East preview. Many people (including me) had high expectations for the Nationals in 2013, and predicted them to win the World Series. In reality, they got off to a slow start, going 48-47 before the All Star break. Then, they started to play better, and went 38-29 during the second half, finishing out with an impressive 18-9 September. Even still, they went out and improved their team this off season. On December 2, the Nationals shook the world with a trade for Doug Fister. In return, the Nationals gave Robbie Ray, Ian Krol, and Steve Lombardozzi to the Tigers. Fister adds to an already three-headed monster rotation for the Nationals with Jordan Zimmermann, Gio Gonzalez, and Stephen Strasburg. Each of those pitchers posted ERA+'s (earned run average adjusted to home ballpark) above the league-average 100. Fister himself adds 4.1 wins to 2013 number four starter Dan Haren. Even without Fister the Nationals were due for a comeback campaign. Both Bryce Harper and Jayson Werth were unable to play 130 games, with the elder only playing 118. Speaking of Harper, have you seen him lately? He's been working hard this offseason, and is now build like a truck. That just adds to the reasons why the Nationals are ready for a great season. 2. Philadelphia Phillies -- 2013 Record: 73-89; Projected Record: 89-73 I read a nice FanGraphs article which said that the Phillies added 16 WAR to their team, and although that total is based on last season, I can see them adding 16 wins to their last season's record. The National League East division is a weak one (besides the Nationals), and the Phillies could be in for one last hurrah. Ryne Sandberg takes over as manager for the entire season, and he's ready to get the most out of every single player on his roster. The Phillies made one really big move this off season, the signing of A.J. Burnett. And if we've learned anything from Burnett over the past few seasons, it's that he can rack up the strikeouts and can pitch at a high level, especially after rejuvenating his career in Pittsburgh. The main reason I like the Burnett signing is that he is a ground-ball pitcher, posting a 50.4% career ground-ball percentage. In a hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park, pitching to ground-balls is one of the main ways to have success, and Burnett will have it. The only thing I'm worried about with the Phillies is their obvious injury concerns. Already in Spring Training Cole Hamels is injured, and we may see a gradual snowball effect into the season. Other than that, I like the youth at third base and in the outfield (Cody Asche, Ben Revere, and Domonic Brown respectivelly), and I like the signing of Marlon Bryd as well. He, although old, can still swing the bat well, and has shown it in Spring Training. Believe it or not, the Phillies could be on the bounce-back train in 2014. 3. Atlanta Braves -- 2013 Record: 96-66; Projected Record: 87-75 Ask me to rank my NL East teams two weeks ago and the Braves would be over 90 wins and second in the division. But, boy what has happened? Well, projected Opening Day starter Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy might both need Tommy John Surgery. Their once touted rotation depth is crumbling, as the Braves scramble for options. This is the year that the Braves disappoint everyone and fall to third in the standings. The Braves did sign the former Royal Ervin Santana to a one-year deal to cover the "damages." However, this does not seem like enough. The Braves not only lost Medlen and Beachy, but remember they lost both Tim Hudson and signal-caller Brian McCann to the Giants and Yankees, respectively. The Braves still have a good lineup with Freddie Freeman, Jason Heyward, and both Upton brothers (B.J. and Justin). The Braves could reach 90 wins, but their rotation problems could spell the end of their run at the top of the National League East. They lost some valuable pieces and only signed Ervin Santana out of desperation. I could see the Braves in the playoffs in 2014, but do not be surprised if their loss of pitching comes back to haunt them, and will not be able to sustain their offense, leading to a disappointment season. 4. New York Mets -- 2013 Record: 74-88; Projected Record: 72-90 The Mets fall down to fourth place this season, after a promising third place finish. The loss of Matt Harvey does not help, but they did sign Curtis Granderson and Bartolo Colon this offseason, something that should help them into the future. However, this season looks bleak for the Mets, with a lack of offense and star pitching. The Mets signed Curtis Granderson and Bartolo Colon this off season. In theory, it looks like the Mets offense and pitching will be helped. However, it's hard to rely on a 40-year-old coming off of a career year to lead your staff. That staff looks uneasy, as Jonathon Niese has a hyperextended left elbow. They still have John Lannan, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and others battling for another rotation spot. On the other hand, Eric Young Jr., David Wright, Ike Davis, and Granderson should lead the lineup and provide run support for their pitching staff. Overall, the Mets should wait until 2015 before they start looking to make the postseason. They have a promising, young lineup, and also have tons of pitching depth in the minor leagues that is ready to break out to the Majors soon. Zack Wheeler and Noah Syndergaard should be on the Mets by Opening Day and around June, respectively. However, their time is next season, not this season. Mets fans, your future is bright, but wait until next season. 5. Miami Marlins -- 2013 Record: 62-100; Projected Record: 65-97 Another year in the cellar of the NL East for Miami. They've got a good young team, but besides Giancarlo Stanton, they seem to be in the same situation as the Mets, waiting for their time. They will be improved, but they took some risks this off season. Miami does boast a young pitching staff where four of their five regular starters posted ERA+'s over the league-average 100. However, only one (Jose Fernandez) was able to pitch over 150 innings. The Marlins made some changes this offseason, signing the likes of Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Rafael Furcal, and Casey McGehee. On paper, these signings look like they will immensely help the Marlins. But, if you dig a little deeper, you see the issues with all three of these players. First, Saltalamacchia has only had one good season (2013), and never posted a OPS+ over 100 previously. He had been playing in Boston's bandbox for three seasons. Now, he's headed to a pitcher's park, and his offense is bound to go down. Second, Furcal hasn't played since 2012, and comes with his own share of injuries. And third, McGehee hasn't played since 2012 either, and last had a season above-average in 2010. The Marlins team is full of questions. In general, Miami has some really good young prospects, and it will not be long before they rise up in the National League East. But for now, they still are the cellar-dwellers and will remain that way until they really decide to make a splash, or when their prospects fully develop. That should not take that long. |