Using Baseball Prospectus' playoff odds, you should be able to tell who has the best chance of doing just that. Teams really should take those odds to determine whether they should be buyers and sellers because more often than not, they are right.
After games being played on July 6 last year, five of the ten eventual postseason teams had a 80 percent chance of making the playoffs or better. Every team that did have an 80 percent or greater chance of making the playoffs on this date last year did. The team with the highest percent chance to make the playoffs on July 6 that ultimately didn't was the Milwaukee Brewers, who had a 71 percent chance to punch their ticket, but collapsed down the stretch and failed to make it. Only three (Orioles, Royals, and Pirates) had less than a 50 percent chance of making the playoffs following action on July 6. By July 31, the Orioles were up to a 71 percent chance, the Royals were at a 17 percent chance, and the Pirates were at a 46 percent chance. Knowing this, I will use Baseball Prospectus' current postseason predictions to determine who should buy and who should sell at the 2015 Trade Deadline. All In (85% or greater)
St. Louis Cardinals (99.3%)
There's no reason why the Cardinals, who own MLB's best record at 54-28, should consider selling. In fact, Baseball Prospectus says that they have a 99.3 percent chance of making the playoffs, leaving just a very small chance for an extreme collapse. If the Cardinals play just .500 ball the rest of the way, that would put them on pace for 94 wins, which would definitely put them in prime position to punch their ticket to the postseason. The Cardinals have no reason to do anything but buy. Los Angeles Dodgers (92.9%) The Dodgers have the second-highest playoff percentage in the league, and nothing suggests that this team won't buy at the trade deadline. I predicted them to go out and get Johnny Cueto, perhaps the best pitcher available not named Cole Hamels. The Dodgers are always willing to spend money and prospects to make their team better and can easily justify doing so at the deadline. Washington Nationals (85.6%) The Nationals have arguably not played their best baseball yet, but still have an 85.6 percent chance to make the playoffs. They could use some reinforcements in their bullpen, but most of the additions the Nationals will be getting will be players coming back from injury, such as Jayson Werth, Ryan Zimmerman, and Stephen Strasburg. They may not need to make a ton of moves in July, but if they do, they have good reason to do so. Houston Astros (84.7%) The Astros have already shown interest in some of the top pitchers that will be available, and Baseball Prospectus' playoff odds completely backs that up. Houston's playoff percentage, at 84.7 percent, is so close to 85 percent that I had to shove them into this category. The Astros have showed that while they are a bit of a surprise, they still can win ballgames and do it over a period of time. The Astros by no means are "pretenders," as they have been able to hold a comfortable AL West lead since late April. Should be buyers (70-85%)
Pittsburgh Pirates (81.3%), Chicago Cubs (73.1%)
The Pirates and Cubs have a case of some serious bad luck. They are playing in the National League's toughest division and would be either leading or close to leading any other division in the league. The only reason I'm wary of either of these teams buying at the deadline is because they are not division leaders and have more of a chance to collapse and fall out of the playoff race altogether. Unless they believe they have a real shot at the Cardinals (which it appears they don't), they shouldn't completely unload their farm systems to go out and get the best guy on the market. Kansas City Royals (75.3%) Of the three teams in this category, I am most comfortable with the Royals buying at the trade deadline due to the fact that they lead their division by a comfortable margin and need just one or two pieces to really put the pressure on the rest of the division. All signs point to the Royals making the playoffs again this year, so I would go ahead and pencil them in as buyers at the deadline. Justifiable (30-70%)
Los Angeles Angels (64.8%)
The Angels are in a good position right now. They are playing good baseball and have shown the need for an upgrade in left field. Of the teams listed in this section, I truly believe they are the best and most complete team, so therefore they should be buyers at the deadline. The Angels could use some rotation help as well, but if they patch up a few spots, they will get into the postseason. My verdict? They should be buyers. AL East: New York Yankees (59.4%), Toronto Blue Jays (39.6%), Tampa Bay Rays (34.9%) The American League East division is lumped together because the division is so muddled and close that really anyone could win it. Baseball Prospectus' simulations give the Yankees the best chance to go to the playoffs out of that division, but with some rotation help, the Blue Jays are the division's best team. The Yankees and Rays should stand pat or make small moves at the deadline, while the Blue Jays should go out and make a splash for a rotation piece. Detroit Tigers (36.7%) With Miguel Cabrera being sidelined with his hamstring injury, I'm going to pencil the Tigers in as should be sellers, but as this team continues to try and make a run once again, they will find themselves trying to buy. The Tigers are heading towards a Phillies-esque fall, and if they don't realize that soon, it could only get worse if they decide to buy at the trade deadline in hopes for one last run at the World Series. Maybe/Stand Pat (20-30%)
New York Mets (28.9%)
Even if the Mets added an offensive piece, I don't think that would be enough to get them to the playoffs this season. With that said, however, I could see them dealing for a guy with more than one season of control, as their young and talented pitching staff comes into their own. The Mets couldn't justify buying for a rental player, but a guy who is at least signed through 2016 could make sense. Baltimore Orioles (28.7%) The Baltimore Orioles have a ton of free agents at the end of the season that they probably should move. The Orioles could be one of those teams that tries to get 25-man roster guys with more years of team control in return. The Orioles could be a team that buys and sells at the trade deadline, and I would be fine with that. San Francisco Giants (22.9%) It's an odd year. The Giants aren't good enough to win the NL West, and considering that they have to deal with the Cubs and Pirates for the Wild Card, it will be tough for them to really make a run into the postseason. However, they still have a good core group of guys and the team has proved me wrong before. They probably should stand pat. Shouldn't buy (Less than 20%)
Minnesota Twins (18.2%)
The Twins just aren't that good. Sure, they had a good run earlier this season, but all the numbers suggest that they were going to fall out of first in the AL Central. The Twins should really try and go for 2016, when some of their rookies will be more polished. Texas Rangers (15.0%) While the Rangers shouldn't buy, they probably will, as I consider them to be in a similar boat as the Tigers are in. The Rangers could legitimately contend, but they would more than a couple of upgrades, to the point where they probably shouldn't go for it this season. Cleveland Indians (13.5%) The Indians were a popular postseason pick prior to this season, but Baseball Prospectus' simulations show that they would need some serious luck to actually get there. The Indians shouldn't sell any pieces other than the impending free agents because my gut says that they will be back in the postseason sooner than later. Boston Red Sox (11.8%) The Red Sox are in a tough position right now. It might not be time for a fire sale quite yet, but it's definitely not time to go out and try and contend this season. Seattle Mariners (7.0%) The Mariners have had some issues staying in the race this season, and while they shouldn't sell off their entire team, they really shouldn't be buyers either. Oakland Athletics (6.8%) The Athletics are already shopping their pieces and it looks like they will be sellers. Arizona Diamondbacks (6.4%) The Diamondbacks are a team that should stand pat. They still have pieces to contend in the near future and as their pitching improves with guys coming back from injury, they could be a legitimate contender coming 2016. Atlanta Braves (3.8%) The Braves, especially in the offseason, have committed to becoming a selling team. They don't have any exciting pieces, but even though they have kind of surprised, they should by no means buy. Chicago White Sox (3.2%) The White Sox are in a tough position. They reportedly won't have a fire sale, which makes sense considering how much money they spent in free agency, but they need to get rid of Jeff Samardzija and still be planning to try again in 2016. San Diego Padres (2.7%) The Padres could buy at the deadline, but in all reality, they shouldn't. They've got some important games coming up that they need to win if people start seriously seeing them as contenders. Once again, they are proving that the winners of the offseason don't necessarily win during the season. Miami Marlins (1.6%) The Marlins shouldn't go into a fire sale, but Mat Latos, Dan Haren, Brad Hand, and other free agents at the end of the season should be gone. Cincinnati Reds (1.1%) The Reds have Johnny Cueto, Mike Leake, and possibly Aroldis Chapman available, and while they won't sell until after they host the All-Star Game, I expect it to come, as it should. Colorado Rockies (0.2%) I'd pull the trigger and deal Troy Tulowitzki. It's time for a real change in Colorado if they want to be relevant down the road. Milwaukee Brewers (0.2%) The Brewers should enter into a fire sale. Philadelphia Phillies (0.0%) Sellers. Now, these rankings and categories don't mean that each of these teams will do as I advise. Their postseason percentages could change and perhaps an addition is all they need to do that. However, Baseball Prospectus' odds are very accurate and should not be taken lightly. Teams really should use them to determine whether they could justify buying at the deadline. --Devan Fink
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The offseason continues to dwindle, as pitchers and catchers will officially begin reporting in under a month. Clubs can still find some late January free agent additions, and among the remaining free agents are three known relievers: Francisco Rodriguez, Casey Janssen, and Rafael Soriano. It is time to take a look at all three and where they will land.
Francisco Rodriguez - Milwaukee Brewers Rodriguez went 5-5 with a 3.04 ERA, 9.7 K/9 ratio, and a 2.4 BB/9 ratio in 68 innings last season, saving 44 games in 49 opportunities. Rodriguez finished the most games in the National League last season, as he was the pitcher on the mound at the end of 66 games last year. He was worth -0.6 fWAR last season. I could see Rodriguez getting a two-year, $20 million deal, but with Scott Boras as his agent, it could be hard to find a common ground between the club and Rodriguez. The Brewers are currently prepared to go into the season with Jonathan Broxton as their closer, but he hasn't closed regularly since 2012, saving just seven games over the past two seasons. The Brewers were reportedly in "serious discussions" to acquire Jonathan Papelbon last week, but nothing materialized. Rodriguez and the Brewers have been in discussions and it looks as if he could be headed their soon. Casey Janssen - Washington Nationals Janssen has served as the Blue Jays' closer over the past three years, so he could be looking for another closer's job, which will not be open in Washington. He went 3-3 with a 3.94 ERA, 5.5 K/9 ratio, and a 1.4 BB/9 ratio in 45.2 innings pitched last season, saving 25 games in 30 opportunities. He missed 37 games last season with an injury and posted a 0.1 fWAR. He could get a one-year, $5 million deal with an option year, something the Nationals should definitely want and be willing to take on. Ever since the Nationals dealt Tyler Clippard to the Athletics, relief pitching has been a need for them, especially backend relief pitching. The Nationals reportedly "checked in" on Janssen and he makes a lot of sense for them, as they likely do not want to spend the money on Rodriguez and have already dealt with the problems of Soriano, while also having a need for pitching. Rafael Soriano - Los Angeles Dodgers Soriano's season took a wrong turn last year with the Nationals, as he started the season solid, but ended up losing the closer's job to Drew Storen at the end of the year. At 35, Soriano can't be looking for a huge contract, so a one- or two-year contract seems likely, which could include a lot of performance bonuses. Last season, he went 4-1 with a 3.19 ERA, 8.6 K/9 ratio, and a 2.8 BB/9 ratio in 62 innings, saving 32 games in 39 opportunities. Soriano is another Boras client. The Dodgers have the closer's spot locked down with Kenley Jansen, but the rest of their bullpen is still a question mark. Los Angeles' relief corps were among the worst in the league last year, as their 0.7 fWAR as a group ranked 26th in the Major Leagues. The Dodgers could use bounce-back year from Soriano. He seems like a guy Andrew Friedman and company in the front office would take a chance on. --Devan Fink Nationals fans, it's finally time to trade Ian Desmond.
The star-studded shortstop has been with the Nationals his entire career, drafted by the then-Montreal Expos in the 3rd round of the 2004 MLB Draft. He spent the 2004 season in the Expos system, then when the team moved to Washington, he moved with them. Desmond has been the Nationals' starting shortstop since 2010, and is approaching free agency this winter. It's sad to see a star leave town, but for the Nationals it makes both economic and baseball sense. The team has a projected 2015 payroll of $141 million (Baseball Reference). They already have five players signed to guaranteed contracts in 2016. By itself, that's $59.8 million. Desmond would command $100 million or more on the open market. The Nationals and Desmond have not had recent extension talks, plus it is unknown if Desmond would take a hometown discount to continue playing in Washington. Regardless, adding $15-$20 million a year to the Nationals' payroll does not make sense at all. Allow me to explain. When the Nationals were involved in the three-team trade with the Padres and Rays that sent Wil Myers west to San Diego, they "acquired" a player to be named later. That player is almost a guarantee to be shortstop Trea Turner, who was the Padres' first round pick in the 2014 MLB Draft. Turner could be in the big leagues for Washington in 2016, if not sooner if Desmond is gone. In short, the Nationals already have a long-term backup plan intact if they deal Desmond now. In fact, they have a short-term backup plan as well. That was by acquiring Yunel Escobar from the Oakland Athletics to play second base. Escobar has not played second since 2007 and has been a shortstop ever since. He could serve as a bridge at shortstop, playing there until Turner is ready. Escobar is a free agent after next season, barring a 2017 club option. If the Nationals deal Desmond, how would they find a second baseman to replace Escobar? That's an easy one. The New York Mets have a second baseman and no shortstop. The difference is, however, they have two big league ready players that could play second base in Dilson Herrera and Ruben Tejada. The Mets could acquire Desmond, and deal Daniel Murphy to the Nationals, and slot Herrera or Tejada into their vacant second base position. The Mets could only do that, however, if they knew that they could sign Desmond to a long-term deal. With only a payroll of $98.4 million this season and already four players signed to $57.4 million next year, the possibility of them extending Desmond is a real one. If they can't sign Desmond long-term, they have two possible options. One would be to get Desmond at a reduced price from the Nationals, then offer him a qualifying offer and try to re-sign him in the offseason, while the other would be to not acquire him at all. The Nationals then could move Daniel Murphy to third base (his natural position) and move Anthony Rendon back to second base. Then, around the infield, they would have Ryan Zimmerman, Anthony Rendon, Yunel Escobar, and Daniel Murphy. Murphy, of course, would not be the Nationals' only return for Desmond. They would also likely acquire a prospect or two, depending on if the Mets believe they can meet Desmond's demands and sign him to long-term extension. The price, time, and place is all right. The Nationals need to deal shortstop Ian Desmond. --Devan Fink On September 5, nearly two weeks ago, Rafael Soriano came into pitch with a three run lead in the top of the ninth. The Nationals were getting ready to take the series opener from the Phillies. Three outs stood between Soriano and the finish line, which would have put the Nationals eight games up in the East. He blew it. Domonic Brown led off with a single, followed by a two-run home run by Carlos Ruiz to make it a one run game. Soriano then got a groundout and a strikeout, and although he had made the game close, he was staring right in the face of a Washington Nationals victory. Ben Revere, the Phillies light-hitting center fielder, worked the count to 2-2. Soriano likely then delivered his final pitch as Nationals closer. Revere took the 2-2, a hanging breaking ball, and hit it over the right field fence. That was Revere's second career home run in over 1,900 plate appearances. Soriano was booed as he was pulled from the game. The Nationals then announced that Soriano would no longer be in the closer's role for the team. They announced that they would be using a closer-by-comitttee strategy, but that has not been the case. Drew Storen has closed every game since Soriano's last hiccup and has been doing it exceptionally well. Storen was selected with the 10th overall pick in the 2009 MLB Draft. He broke onto the scene in 2011, saving 43 games in 48 opportunities, and really proving why the Nationals took him that high in the draft. In 2012, he was hurt, undergoing elbow surgery, for most of the season, but still came back to save four games in five opportunities, as the Nationals went to the playoffs for the first time since moving to Washington. However, in the 2012 National League Division Series, with the Nationals holding a 7-5 lead after letting the Cardinals back into the game, Storen allowed four runs to score with two outs, and took the loss as the Nationals went home with nothing to show for their early 6-0 lead. That was Storen's last pitch as full-time closer, as Washington signed Soriano to a two-year, $22 million deal to handle the closing duties for 2013 and 2014. Storen has learned. Although he did have a down season in 2013, he came back in 2014 as the best pitcher he has ever been over his short five season career. He is 2-1 with a 1.29 ERA, 0.959 WHIP, and a 2.79 FIP in 57 games. He has posted a 42 to 11 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 49 innings where he has allowed just seven earned runs. And since becoming closer on September 6, Storen has saved three games (he has saved four on the season), pitching three clean innings, while striking out six. The one main thing that Storen has changed is well, his change-up. He added the pitch late last season, and now he is using it as often as 20 percent of the time. Hitters are hitting just .205 against it and he has struck out just as many hitters (15) with it as he has with what is likely his best pitch, the slider. It's been the equalizer that Storen has needed. When hitters are looking for the slider in a breaking ball count, Storen can throw them a change-up, buckling them at the same rate. "Any time you can go to three different pitches in a two-strike count, that helps," Storen said to the Washington Post. "Adding that change-up has been huge for me. I can throw it against righties and lefties. It’s really paid off for me recently." And as the Nationals' magic number to make the postseason dwindles down to six, it has to be Storen closing the games of the National League Division Series. And has to be Storen recording the saves and getting the outs as Washington makes their World Series run. And it has to be Storen as full-time closer. He's changed it all up and has done his job extremely effectively. --Devan F. Boy, has this season gone by fast. It feels like just yesterday the Boston Red Sox were hoisting the 2013 World Series trophy, and everyone else was waiting for the season to start again. It feels like just yesterday that Opening Day was here and that the teams were back on the field to start a new season with a clean slate. But this first half of the season has gone by fast. Really fast. Now we are at the All-Star break, and it is time to give out some "first-half awards," talk about some surprise teams, and just recap what went on during this fantastic first half of the 2014 season.
National League Awards: MVP: Jonathan Lucroy, C, Milwaukee Brewers Jonathan Lucroy has been the best player in the National League this season. He's more valuable to the Brewers than Troy Tulowitzki is to the Rockies. It is not only his offense that is near the top of the National League, but his handling of the Brewers pitching staff is arguably just as good as Yadier Molina's handling of the Cardinals pitching staff. While Lucroy's 3.7 WAR is tied for fifth in the National League and his OPS ranks 9th. So far on the season, Lucroy is batting .315/.385/.494 with nine homers and 44 runs batted in. Those are MVP worthy numbers on any level. Honorable Mentions: Troy Tulowitzki, Andrew McCutchen, Carlos Gomez, and Giancarlo Stanton Rookie of the Year: Billy Hamilton, OF, Cincinnati Reds Only two rookies, Hamilton and Chris Owings, have WARs above one. While Owings has had a good season, Hamilton has been more impressive. He's hitting a slash line of .285/.319/.423 with 38 stolen bases, which ranks second in the National League to only Dee Gordon, who has an astounding 43 stolen bases. Hamilton's 4.7 percent walk rate is not great, but he is getting on-base on a fine rate. One other plus to Hamilton's game is his defense; he boasts a 9 defensive runs saved this season and a 23 UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) prorated to 150 games. Hamilton's case is better than anyone else's. Honorable Mentions: Chris Owings and Tommy La Stella Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw, LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers A no-hitter, a 40+ innings scoreless streak, and a sub-2 ERA. That's enough to be not only a Cy Young award winner, but also MVP. On the season, Clayton Kershaw is 11-2 with a 1.78 ERA and a 1.60 FIP in 96.1 innings pitched. Kershaw leads all National League pitchers with a 3.7 WAR, 1.72 xFIP, and ranks third in the National League in left-on-base percentage with an 83.6 mark. Kershaw also has a 126 to 13 strikeout-to-walk ratio. In terms of FIP, Kershaw is having the greatest seasons of his career. The Dodgers are fantastic in his starts, as they are 11-3 when Kershaw is on the hill. Honorable Mentions: Adam Wainwright and Stephen Strasburg Manager of the Year: Ron Roenicke, MGR, Milwaukee Brewers Ron Roenicke has dealt with the issues surrounding Jean Segura quite well. Not to mention, he took the Brewers, a team that was supposed to be around the bottom of the National League Central, into contention, with one of the hottest starts of the season. While they have cooled off greatly, they still are playing very good baseball, which has to come back to the managerial experience of Roenicke. Not to mention, Roenicke has challenged 14 calls this season, and nine were overturned, for an astounding 64.2% success rate. His work for the Brewers has taken them far and could take them further. Honorable Mentions: Matt Williams and Bryan Price |