James Shields is the third of the "big three" starting pitchers (Max Scherzer, Jon Lester) to be a free agent this offseason. Shields, off of a World Series appearances with the Royals, might just be the most affordable of the big three due to his age. That doesn't mean that he won't be inexpensive by any means.
The 32-year-old Shields was drafted in the 16th round of the 2002 MLB Draft by the then-Tampa Bay Devil Rays. He worked his way through the minors nicely, breaking out especially in 2005. Shields came up to the Rays in 2006 and worked his first 152 games (151 starts) over the next five years. He was an average pitcher -- above average at best -- working his way to a 4.25 ERA in 977 2/3 innings pitched. His 2011 season changed his entire career. Shields went 16-12 with a 2.82 ERA and a 134 ERA+, also averaging 3.46 strikeouts per walk in 249 1/3 innings. He led the American League with an astounding 11 complete games and 4 shutouts. He was shipped to Kansas City in 2012 in the deal that moved Wil Myers to Tampa. Since, he's been with the Royals. This past season, Shields went 14-8 with a 3.21 ERA and a 124 ERA+, averaging 4.09 strikeouts per walk over his 227 innings pitched. He was a 3.7 fWAR player this past year. The Royals decided to offer Shields a one-year, $15.3 million qualifying offer, but he has yet to make a decision. Shields just isn't as good as Lester or Scherzer. Those are the facts. He's also older, which means that his contract won't be as extravagant, nor for as many years. Currently interested, as previously reported, in Shields are the Yankees, Red Sox, and Cubs (obvious ones), but also the Blue Jays, Orioles, and Marlins. It's hard to gauge the interest of the latter three teams right now, but I have to assume they're in due to a smaller contract size. Shields is a really good pitcher, but this postseason he didn't help his stock in pitching well down the stretch. Lester posted an ERA around 2.6 in close to his last 30 postseason innings and Scherzer has an ERA around 3.6 over his last 30 postseason innings. Shields has a 7.20 ERA over his last 30 postseason innings. This has to be taken into consideration for teams wanting to sign him, for sure. This contract is a tough one to peg for me, but I really believe that the Cubs are going all in this offseason. Whether this means they are going to sign Lester, Shields, or both, I do not know, and I probably won't be able to tell you until both of them sign. My personal opinion is that they will sign Lester, but I'm not sure about Shields. But it's really hard to peg a contract for him in general. So, I have James Shields signing with the Chicago Cubs on a five-year, $80 million contract. --Devan F.
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Oakland Athletics starter Jon Lester is a free agent this offseason. He was not eligible for a qualifying offer, due to the fact that he pitched for both the Athletics and Red Sox this season. Players who spent time with more than one team are not eligible for a qualifying offer.
The 30-year-old Lester has never hit the open market over his career, as the Red Sox bought out some of his free agent years with a six-year, $42.75 million extension that covered from 2009 to 2014. He has pitched with them since the beginning of his career and now will take the next step. Lester, a Tacoma, Washington, native was drafted by the Red Sox in the 2nd round of the 2002 MLB Draft. He worked quickly through the minor leagues, even netting him as the 22nd best prospect prior to the 2006 season as ranked by Baseball America. Lester came up to the bigs that year and has never looked back, appearing in the major leagues every year since. The three-time All-Star Lester has a ton of big game experience. Lester was a part of two World Series runs, in 2007 and 2013, and played an instrumental part in the Red Sox last title, posting a 1.56 ERA in 34 2/3 innings pitched during the postseason (not quite Bumgarner numbers, but Bumgarner isn't human). Over his career, Lester has logged 1596 innings and posted a 3.58 ERA. Lester spent his first time outside Boston this past season, being traded to the Athletics midseason for Yoenis Cespedes and others. He made 32 starts with the two clubs, going 16-11 with a 2.46 ERA and a 2.80 FIP. He was a 6.1 fWAR player, the second-highest mark of his career. Lester still has a lot left in the tank. He's been one of baseball's best starters since breaking on to the scene in 2008. He logged over 200 innings his first three seasons beginning in 2008, then worked 191 2/3 in 2011, and has worked over 200 every year since. But he is still only 30. Lester is the true workhorse in this free agent class, which will net him a big contract over many seasons. I'm not sure the Athletics can afford to bring Lester back, but I know the Red Sox would love a reunion. After being dealt, Lester felt "no hard feelings" towards Boston, and would be interested in coming back in the offseason. I'm not buying it now though. The Red Sox have $90.3 million committed to eight players already in 2015 and have $22.5 million committed to two in 2016. I'm not sure they can take on another $20 million per year by bringing back Lester. I do think the Cubs are going to busy this offseason. Chicago is this close to contention next year and has a lot of payroll flexibility to get them there. They have $24 million guaranteed to four players next season. That's it. With that in my mind, and the fact that they are reportedly going all out for pitching this offseason, I have them signing Lester to a five-year, $120 million contract. --Devan F. The best player on this year's free agent market is Max Scherzer from the Detroit Tigers. Scherzer was offered a qualifying offer earlier today, but should still have a very strong market considering his accolades and performance on the field.
The 30-year-old Scherzer will be hitting free agency for the first time in his career, as he just wrapped up the arbitration process this past offseason, netting a one-year, $15.53 million deal from Detroit. Considering that the qualifying offer would actually be a decrease in pay for Scherzer, there is an extremely low chance he takes it. Where could he go and what contract could he get? Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported that Scherzer could net a seven-year, $175 million contract from his new team. Scherzer declined an extension from the Tigers that was worth $144 million over six years back prior to this season. He posted another very good season this year and should expect to make more than $144 million. The St. Louis native Scherzer was selected with the 11th overall pick in the 2006 MLB Draft by the Arizona Diamondbacks, out of the University of Missouri Columbia (Columbia, MO). He came up to the big leagues with Arizona for a brief period, but was traded in the three-team trade that sent Curtis Granderson to the Yankees, and Ian Kennedy and Edwin Jackson to the Diamondbacks. Since, Scherzer has improved every year. He completely broke out in 2013, going 21-3 with a 2.90 ERA in 214 1/3 innings pitched, which netted him the 2013 Cy Young award. This past year, Scherzer went 18-5 with a 3.15 ERA in 33 starts coming off his Cy Young season. He struck out 252 hitters and walked just 63 over his 220 1/3 innings of work. Scherzer may have resulted from some poor defense, as his 2.85 FIP suggests that his ERA was 0.30 inflated. It will be hard to pinpoint an exact location for Scherzer now, but I have a strong feeling he ends up in Boston to pitch for the Red Sox. The Chicago Cubs are in for one, or more, top tier starting pitchers, but I cannot see Theo Epstein giving up a second round pick to go get him. The Yankees could be in on him, but a recent report said they weren't going after top starting pitching. The Red Sox want to make another run at the AL East title in 2015. They acquired Yoenis Cespedes and Allen Craig at the trade deadline from the Athletics and Cardinals, respectively, to bolster their lineup and outfield. They still have a strong lineup that has some young talent, but did post a .684 OPS last year, which ranked 22nd in the majors. The Red Sox might need to really retool in order to contend once again. Other suitors for Scherzer are pretty obvious, the Yankees and Cubs. I'm not fully convinced that the Yankees will stay out of the top bidding this season, and the Cubs are going to go after some top pitching. But one, other potential suitor, the St. Louis Cardinals, might be a dark horse for Scherzer. Scherzer discussed the idea of pitching in St. Louis in March. "It would be too cool," Scherzer told the St. Louis Post-Dispatch's Rick Hummel. "I grew up there. When you’re a little kid, you picture yourself putting on the (Cardinals) uniform." No free agent starting pitcher has made over $150 million since CC Sabathia signed with the Yankees prior to the 2009 season. We'll see how the market plays out for Scherzer, but I have the Red Sox signing him to a six-year, $150 million contract, similar to the deal Zack Greinke got from the Dodgers prior to the 2013 season. No matter how you slice it, Scherzer will get paid. --Devan F. July 31st, the MLB non-waiver trade deadline, has come and gone. After two days of digesting one of the busiest deadlines in recent memory, it is not only time to think about who made the right turns in either improving their team for a postseason run or retooled for the future, but it is also time to think about who whiffed at those opportunities. Ladies and gentlemen, here are Cover Those Bases' winners and losers of the 2014 trade deadline.
Winners: Oakland Athletics The Oakland Athletics acquired Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel from the Chicago Cubs on July 4th. Their rotation took a huge step forward, although they did have to give up top prospect Addison Russell in return. When we thought the A's had made their one move, they proved us wrong. On the day of the deadline, the Athletics made the first move of the day, a big one, acquiring Jon Lester and Jonny Gomes from the Boston Red Sox. They did have to send Yoenis Cespedes to Boston, but pitching wins championships, and Billy Beane and company did their job. Boston Red Sox At the beginning of July, the Red Sox' trade deadline status was in question. Going into July 1st, the Red Sox were only 6.5 games out of first, and a hot month could have made them buyers. However, they went 11-16 in July, and ended the month 12.5 games out. What really makes them winners, however, is that they were able to deal every single major trade piece they had that only had one year left on their contract. The Sox dealt Jon Lester to Oakland, John Lackey to St. Louis, and Andrew Miller to Baltimore. Not to mention, they also dealt Stephen Drew to New York and Jake Peavy to San Francisco. In return, the Red Sox did not just get prospects that will be in the show in five years. They got Yoenis Cespedes, Joe Kelly, and Allen Craig, three proven major leaguers. That was absolutely fantastic. This deadline could make Boston contenders again next year. Chicago Cubs The Cubs did exactly what everyone wanted them to do at the trade deadline, sell. They dealt Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel to Oakland, getting one of the best prospects in baseball in Addison Russell, while also receiving Billy McKinney and Dan Straily. They also were able to take Felix Doubront of the Red Sox' hands, who might be able to be shaped into a pretty good pitcher. However, he is a big work in progress. And right at the deadline at 4 pm, Chicago dealt James Russell and Emilio Bonifacio to Atlanta, getting a former second round pick in Victor Caratini in return. The Cubs continue to build up young players and could be contenders as soon as next year. Losers: Philadelphia Phillies During the weeks leading up to the trade deadline, the question was, "How many players are the Phillies going to sell?" This was different than prior years, when the question was, "Will the Phillies sell?" I guess people should have been asking the second question again, because the Phillies did not deal one single player at the trade deadline. Let me tell you again: they did not trade a single player. With all they talent they had in Cole Hamels, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Marlon Byrd, and Jonathan Papelbon, the Phillies still could not make a deal. The person to blame is general manager Ruben Amaro Jr., who blamed the other GMs for not being aggressive enough for his players. Unless they make some serious noise during the waiver-trade period in August, Amaro, along with the rest of the Phillies front office, failed epically. He needs to go before anything worse happens to this team. San Francisco Giants I really believed that the Giants were going to go out and get a bat at the deadline, particularly at second base. However, the only deal they made was getting a shaky Jake Peavy from Boston for two minor league pitchers that I feel highly about. They were not able to make the deals that they should have, especially going after either Ben Zobrist or Chase Utley. Even after the Rays decided they were going to deal David Price, they should have gone out and shopped Zobrist. The Giants were not able to get anything done, even after showing a lot of interest in him. They are competing with the Dodgers in the National League West, and when you need to be deep at every position to best them, they whiffed really badly in going out and getting a second baseman. That is why they are a loser. Tampa Bay Rays As soon as the Rays decided they were going to deal David Price, Ben Zobrist should have been the next guy to be moved. The Rays got a subpar return for a Cy Young award winner in David Price, only drawing Nick Franklin from Seattle and Drew Smyly from Detroit, along with a minor league shortstop. I really thought that the Rays were only going to deal Price in a fantastic deal, especially since they still can contend this season. However, that was not the case, as I believe the Red Sox got more for Jon Lester and Jonny Gomes than the Rays got for David Price. That should be the complete opposite. The Rays could have easily held on to the lefty as well, as he still has another season on his contract. Tampa Bay made a head-scratcher this deadline season. Two of the hottest commodities at the trade deadline season will be Cubs pitchers Jason Hammel and Jeff Samardzija. Both have had fantastic seasons, which only adds to their value come July 31. The Cubs are sitting at 28-39; they will not be contending this season. It seems like it is time to sell. And they should. But, they should only sell Jason Hammel, and not Jeff Samardzija. Please, let me explain my case. In how many years from now will the Cubs contend? The Cubs had SEVEN top prospects on Baseball America's top 100, including number five Javier Baez and number eight Kris Bryant. Many experts believe that the Cubs will be at the top of the National League Central in 2015 or 2016. Of those seven top prospects, only two, C.J. Edwards and Pierce Johnson, are pitchers. In order to contend, you need pitching. The Cubs are developing few pitchers, so why not keep a guy that will be almost guaranteed to be at the top of your starting rotation? Jeff Samardzija is 29. He has a 2.77 ERA in 91 innings pitched this season. In 2015, Samardzija will be 30. Samardzija is still under contract for that season. However, he is up for arbitration, something the Cubs may not want to pay. But other than that, I do not see any other reason on why the Cubs want to trade Samardzija away. Sure, they'll get prospects for Samardzija. But prospects are not full-proof. Many top prospects have faltered, and are too risky. Who is more likely to be performing at a high level, in the major leagues, in 2016, Jeff Samardzija or some top prospect? I would go with Samardzija in a heartbeat. He isn't old, he's talented, and he's already in the major leagues. That brings me to Jason Hammel. I have the exact opposite opinion on Hammel. He signed a one-year, $6 million deal with the Cubs this past offseason and wanted to prove that he still had something left in the tank. He's more than proved that this season, posting the lowest ERA and highest ERA+ in his entire career, and only allowing 6.9 hits per nine innings pitched. Hammel is pitching like an ace. And there has never been a time to sell him higher than now. There still is a chance Hammel won't be back in 2015 with the Cubs, let alone 2016. He won't see them contend, and won't be apart of the team that makes it to the playoffs for the first time since 2008. It is time for the Cubs to jump the gun and trade him. The only issue with trading Hammel is his history. He has never been pitching like he is now, and many executives are nervous that he can't help them down the stretch. Regardless, there always has to be one team that thinks Hammel is worth a shot. He might not get the prospects that Samardzija would get on the market, but the value of the deal is much higher. The Cubs have to start worrying about contending, and not dealing players away for younger talent. They have already done that. If they were to hold Jeff Samardzija to this trade deadline, it could pay huge dividends into 2015 and 2016. It could make the difference from being a wild card team to a pennant winning team. That mentality needs to start now, by dealing Jason Hammel and holding Jeff Samardzija. |