The National League Rookie of the Year award race isn't as clear cut as everyone thought it would be coming into the season.
Kris Bryant, Matt Duffy, Maikel Franco, Jung-ho Kang, Joc Pederson, and Noah Syndergaard have all been thrown as more-than-deserving candidates and rightly so. But as much as everyone talks about Kang, Grichuk, Syndergaard, and the others, the best rookie in the Senior Circuit has in fact been Kris Bryant, the third baseman who was favorited to win the award coming into the year. Bryant leads all rookies in fWAR with a 3.9 mark. While his offense hasn't quite been what people expected, Bryant has been just fine there. Bryant's .249 batting average and 30.3 strikeout rate has caused him no longer be the unanimous top choice, but his 124 wRC+ (wins created plus) ranks seventh among rookies. This means that Bryant is 24 percent better than league average at creating runs, adjusted for park- and league-factors. However, what really sets Bryant apart from the rest of the pack is the completeness in his game. This is almost ironic, considering the Cubs kept him down in the minor leagues for the first two weeks of the season to work on his "defense," but in all reality, amongst the top seven NL rookies in wRC+, Bryant is the best defender through FanGraphs' overall defensive rating. Not only is Bryant much better than expected defensively, but he also leads the 2015 NL Rookie Class in base running runs above average, adding six runs through solid base running. His surprising speed (11 stolen bases), combined with his smarts, make him 2.5 runs more valuable than the next best rookie (Duffy). It might not be his bat that wins him the award, but Kris Bryant is still the best rookie in the National League this season. He is the best overall player and will be exciting to watch for years to come. --Devan Fink
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Using Baseball Prospectus' playoff odds, you should be able to tell who has the best chance of doing just that. Teams really should take those odds to determine whether they should be buyers and sellers because more often than not, they are right.
After games being played on July 6 last year, five of the ten eventual postseason teams had a 80 percent chance of making the playoffs or better. Every team that did have an 80 percent or greater chance of making the playoffs on this date last year did. The team with the highest percent chance to make the playoffs on July 6 that ultimately didn't was the Milwaukee Brewers, who had a 71 percent chance to punch their ticket, but collapsed down the stretch and failed to make it. Only three (Orioles, Royals, and Pirates) had less than a 50 percent chance of making the playoffs following action on July 6. By July 31, the Orioles were up to a 71 percent chance, the Royals were at a 17 percent chance, and the Pirates were at a 46 percent chance. Knowing this, I will use Baseball Prospectus' current postseason predictions to determine who should buy and who should sell at the 2015 Trade Deadline. All In (85% or greater)
St. Louis Cardinals (99.3%)
There's no reason why the Cardinals, who own MLB's best record at 54-28, should consider selling. In fact, Baseball Prospectus says that they have a 99.3 percent chance of making the playoffs, leaving just a very small chance for an extreme collapse. If the Cardinals play just .500 ball the rest of the way, that would put them on pace for 94 wins, which would definitely put them in prime position to punch their ticket to the postseason. The Cardinals have no reason to do anything but buy. Los Angeles Dodgers (92.9%) The Dodgers have the second-highest playoff percentage in the league, and nothing suggests that this team won't buy at the trade deadline. I predicted them to go out and get Johnny Cueto, perhaps the best pitcher available not named Cole Hamels. The Dodgers are always willing to spend money and prospects to make their team better and can easily justify doing so at the deadline. Washington Nationals (85.6%) The Nationals have arguably not played their best baseball yet, but still have an 85.6 percent chance to make the playoffs. They could use some reinforcements in their bullpen, but most of the additions the Nationals will be getting will be players coming back from injury, such as Jayson Werth, Ryan Zimmerman, and Stephen Strasburg. They may not need to make a ton of moves in July, but if they do, they have good reason to do so. Houston Astros (84.7%) The Astros have already shown interest in some of the top pitchers that will be available, and Baseball Prospectus' playoff odds completely backs that up. Houston's playoff percentage, at 84.7 percent, is so close to 85 percent that I had to shove them into this category. The Astros have showed that while they are a bit of a surprise, they still can win ballgames and do it over a period of time. The Astros by no means are "pretenders," as they have been able to hold a comfortable AL West lead since late April. Should be buyers (70-85%)
Pittsburgh Pirates (81.3%), Chicago Cubs (73.1%)
The Pirates and Cubs have a case of some serious bad luck. They are playing in the National League's toughest division and would be either leading or close to leading any other division in the league. The only reason I'm wary of either of these teams buying at the deadline is because they are not division leaders and have more of a chance to collapse and fall out of the playoff race altogether. Unless they believe they have a real shot at the Cardinals (which it appears they don't), they shouldn't completely unload their farm systems to go out and get the best guy on the market. Kansas City Royals (75.3%) Of the three teams in this category, I am most comfortable with the Royals buying at the trade deadline due to the fact that they lead their division by a comfortable margin and need just one or two pieces to really put the pressure on the rest of the division. All signs point to the Royals making the playoffs again this year, so I would go ahead and pencil them in as buyers at the deadline. Justifiable (30-70%)
Los Angeles Angels (64.8%)
The Angels are in a good position right now. They are playing good baseball and have shown the need for an upgrade in left field. Of the teams listed in this section, I truly believe they are the best and most complete team, so therefore they should be buyers at the deadline. The Angels could use some rotation help as well, but if they patch up a few spots, they will get into the postseason. My verdict? They should be buyers. AL East: New York Yankees (59.4%), Toronto Blue Jays (39.6%), Tampa Bay Rays (34.9%) The American League East division is lumped together because the division is so muddled and close that really anyone could win it. Baseball Prospectus' simulations give the Yankees the best chance to go to the playoffs out of that division, but with some rotation help, the Blue Jays are the division's best team. The Yankees and Rays should stand pat or make small moves at the deadline, while the Blue Jays should go out and make a splash for a rotation piece. Detroit Tigers (36.7%) With Miguel Cabrera being sidelined with his hamstring injury, I'm going to pencil the Tigers in as should be sellers, but as this team continues to try and make a run once again, they will find themselves trying to buy. The Tigers are heading towards a Phillies-esque fall, and if they don't realize that soon, it could only get worse if they decide to buy at the trade deadline in hopes for one last run at the World Series. Maybe/Stand Pat (20-30%)
New York Mets (28.9%)
Even if the Mets added an offensive piece, I don't think that would be enough to get them to the playoffs this season. With that said, however, I could see them dealing for a guy with more than one season of control, as their young and talented pitching staff comes into their own. The Mets couldn't justify buying for a rental player, but a guy who is at least signed through 2016 could make sense. Baltimore Orioles (28.7%) The Baltimore Orioles have a ton of free agents at the end of the season that they probably should move. The Orioles could be one of those teams that tries to get 25-man roster guys with more years of team control in return. The Orioles could be a team that buys and sells at the trade deadline, and I would be fine with that. San Francisco Giants (22.9%) It's an odd year. The Giants aren't good enough to win the NL West, and considering that they have to deal with the Cubs and Pirates for the Wild Card, it will be tough for them to really make a run into the postseason. However, they still have a good core group of guys and the team has proved me wrong before. They probably should stand pat. Shouldn't buy (Less than 20%)
Minnesota Twins (18.2%)
The Twins just aren't that good. Sure, they had a good run earlier this season, but all the numbers suggest that they were going to fall out of first in the AL Central. The Twins should really try and go for 2016, when some of their rookies will be more polished. Texas Rangers (15.0%) While the Rangers shouldn't buy, they probably will, as I consider them to be in a similar boat as the Tigers are in. The Rangers could legitimately contend, but they would more than a couple of upgrades, to the point where they probably shouldn't go for it this season. Cleveland Indians (13.5%) The Indians were a popular postseason pick prior to this season, but Baseball Prospectus' simulations show that they would need some serious luck to actually get there. The Indians shouldn't sell any pieces other than the impending free agents because my gut says that they will be back in the postseason sooner than later. Boston Red Sox (11.8%) The Red Sox are in a tough position right now. It might not be time for a fire sale quite yet, but it's definitely not time to go out and try and contend this season. Seattle Mariners (7.0%) The Mariners have had some issues staying in the race this season, and while they shouldn't sell off their entire team, they really shouldn't be buyers either. Oakland Athletics (6.8%) The Athletics are already shopping their pieces and it looks like they will be sellers. Arizona Diamondbacks (6.4%) The Diamondbacks are a team that should stand pat. They still have pieces to contend in the near future and as their pitching improves with guys coming back from injury, they could be a legitimate contender coming 2016. Atlanta Braves (3.8%) The Braves, especially in the offseason, have committed to becoming a selling team. They don't have any exciting pieces, but even though they have kind of surprised, they should by no means buy. Chicago White Sox (3.2%) The White Sox are in a tough position. They reportedly won't have a fire sale, which makes sense considering how much money they spent in free agency, but they need to get rid of Jeff Samardzija and still be planning to try again in 2016. San Diego Padres (2.7%) The Padres could buy at the deadline, but in all reality, they shouldn't. They've got some important games coming up that they need to win if people start seriously seeing them as contenders. Once again, they are proving that the winners of the offseason don't necessarily win during the season. Miami Marlins (1.6%) The Marlins shouldn't go into a fire sale, but Mat Latos, Dan Haren, Brad Hand, and other free agents at the end of the season should be gone. Cincinnati Reds (1.1%) The Reds have Johnny Cueto, Mike Leake, and possibly Aroldis Chapman available, and while they won't sell until after they host the All-Star Game, I expect it to come, as it should. Colorado Rockies (0.2%) I'd pull the trigger and deal Troy Tulowitzki. It's time for a real change in Colorado if they want to be relevant down the road. Milwaukee Brewers (0.2%) The Brewers should enter into a fire sale. Philadelphia Phillies (0.0%) Sellers. Now, these rankings and categories don't mean that each of these teams will do as I advise. Their postseason percentages could change and perhaps an addition is all they need to do that. However, Baseball Prospectus' odds are very accurate and should not be taken lightly. Teams really should use them to determine whether they could justify buying at the deadline. --Devan Fink
The Trade Deadline season has began. With the deadline just 30 days away, teams are going to be moving players and prospects at extremely fast rates, trying to either build for the future or improve their team for the stretch run.
Here are six of the most notable players that could be moved at the deadline and predictions for where they will be headed on July 31. Cole Hamels, Texas Rangers Hamels is obviously the biggest name available at the deadline with the highest chance of being moved. Considering the sad state of the Phillies, Hamels has an extremely high chance of being on another team on August 1. The Texas Rangers represent a strong fit for Cole Hamels, as they have showed interest in him. Their rotation this season has been good at run prevention, but the analytic stats show that they're not as good as advertised. They view Hamels as an elite upgrade worth getting, and they seem like the team that would pay GM Ruben Amaro Jr.'s price--or at least close to it--in order to get him. Other possible fits: Houston Astros, Los Angeles Dodgers, St. Louis Cardinals, New York Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays Jonathan Papelbon, Toronto Blue Jays Papelbon, like Hamels, will be another key part of the Phillies' trade deadline season. His contract is more of an obstacle, though, so his deal will likely take longer to progress while all the details are hammered out. The Blue Jays have had plenty of interest in acquiring Papelbon throughout the season and dating all the way back to the offseason. The contract has been the only thing keeping them from actually pulling the trigger, it seems. As the Phillies become more motivated to move their players, asking prices and the amount of contract to be picked up should become lower. The Blue Jays will get this deal done. Other possible fits: Washington Nationals, Chicago Cubs Jeff Samardzija, Houston Astros The Astros are going to make a move for a starting pitcher this deadline season, but it remains unclear as to which pitcher they will most heavily pursue. Samardzija looks like a solid fit in Houston. His run prevention numbers have not been great, but the Astros are a team that would definitely look past that, perhaps even viewing that as a way to get Samardzija on the cheap. Samardzija's analytical stats show that his ERA is about a run inflated (check this!!), due to poor luck and defense on the White Sox' part. With the Astros, Samardzija would be moved for the third time in two years, but would fit their system much better, with what is likely to be improved defense. Samardzija's the type of guy the Astros want. Other possible fits: Kansas City Royals, Minnesota Twins, Los Angeles Dodgers, Toronto Blue Jays, New York Yankees Johnny Cueto, Los Angeles Dodgers The Dodgers seemingly never have enough pitching, and the same goes for this year, as the team has lost starters Hyun-jin Ryu and Brandon McCarthy for the entire year. The Reds are likely going to sell after they host the All-Star Game, and when they do so, Johnny Cueto will be the first to go. Cueto's in the last year of his contract, so he will get an opportunity to contend throughout the rest of the season and then get a huge contact for 2016 and beyond. When the Dodgers get Ryu and McCarthy back next year (check to make sure they're under contract), Cueto will be gone, but in the short term, he's definitely a move worth making and one that they will ultimately make. Other possible fits: Houston Astros, St. Louis Cardinals, New York Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays Ben Zobrist, Chicago Cubs Zobrist has already been with Cubs' manager Joe Maddon in a clubhouse when the two were with the Tampa Bay Rays together. The Cubs may want to get an upgrade in left field, where Chris Coglan currently resides. Maddon also understands the importance of having a super utility man down the stretch, as that could go a long way if a player gets injured or needs a day off. Zobrist is pretty much a starting-caliber super utility man, which will make him in hot demand at the trade deadline. Other possible fits: Pretty much any contending team in need of an infielder or outfielder. Scott Kazmir, Toronto Blue Jays The Blue Jays and Athletics have already had their trade in past year, with the Josh Donaldson deal over the offseason. However, a second deal could be made this July, as the Blue Jays need starting pitching and the Athletics will likely unload Kazmir. While the two sides haven't been mentioned as anything more than a practical fit, as the arms start going off the board, the Blue Jays may be more likely to make a move. Another plus to Kazmir is that he has just this season left on his contract, perhaps making him a cheaper option at the deadline. Also, when Marcus Stroman comes back from injury in 2016, the Blue Jays will be able to make a quick and easy transition from Kazmir. Other possible fits: Houston Astros, Kansas City Royals, Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees --Devan Fink Major League Baseball has recently been investigating an interesting case, one that includes the Cubs possibly tampering with a manager who was still technically under contract in the Rays' Joe Maddon. The Cubs hired Maddon at the beginning of last offseason after he used a special opt-out clause in his deal with Tampa. The opt-out became active when former general manager Andrew Friedman left to become the Dodgers' president of baseball operations. Maddon was quickly hired by the Cubs after opting-out on October 23 on a five-year, $25 million deal. MLB rules state that a team can not have contract discussions with team personal, whether it would be a player, coach, or front office person, while they are under contract with another team. Commissioner Rob Manfred said yesterday that a verdict on the case should come "fairly quickly," according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. The whole situation in Chicago was a bit uneasy. The Cubs had to fire manager Rick Renteria, who signed a three-year deal, after just one year, even though the Cubs showed signs of improvement in wins and competitiveness. If the Cubs are found guilty, they may have to provide some compensation to the Rays, which may include cash or a player. I can't make a fair judgement on whether the Cubs truly "tampered" with Maddon, but at the time of his opt-out, just the Twins had a managerial opening. Maddon or his agent Alan Nero likely had some knowledge that the Cubs would show interest in hiring him, but will there be enough evidence to prove that? Maddon did say publicly that he was happy in his position with the Rays and wanted to stay there longterm. Then how did something just spur within him that he would quickly want to opt-out, especially without someone telling him he should have? The business side of this deal may not be the cleanest, and when Major League Baseball makes its decision soon, the Cubs may have to pay the price. It definitely looks like they could have tampered, but without concrete evidence, I really don't know either way. All I know, however, is that Maddon is looking to take the Cubs back to the World Series for the first time since 1908. --Devan Fink When Jon Lester was closing in on signing, the speculation was astounding. Some were believing that the Red Sox and Cubs were finalists, others were saying Cubs and Giants, with some even saying Dodgers and Red Sox. The Lester ordeal was a real eye-opener, showing how much social media has changed the way we get and distribute baseball news. Without further ado, here are the winners and losers from the Winter Meetings.
Chicago Cubs - Winner When Lester signed with the Cubs, we knew that they had achieved their ultimate goal of the offseason. And now, they are among the best in the National League, with a chance to make the playoffs for the first time since the 2008 postseason. Jon Lester is that type of player. He is the guy you want in a Game 7, a postseason clincher, or any other big game. No, I'm not talking about James Shields, I'm talking about Lester, who has a 2.57 ERA in the playoffs, as a two-time World Series champion. But it isn't just Lester that makes the Cubs the winners of this Winter Meetings. They made one other move, much more strategic and a lot less prevalent, acquiring Miguel Montero from the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Cubs have needed catching, finishing second in the Russell Martin bidding, and the acquisition of Montero fits the bill. He's under team control for three more years and posted a 1.2 fWAR in 2014. The Cubs can surround Montero and Lester with their prospects and have a shot at the postseason. Chicago White Sox - Winner Move to the south side of Chicago, where we find our other Winter Meetings winner. The Chicago White Sox played both the free agent and trade markets well. They acquired Jeff Samardzija from the Athletics in a six-player deal and now they boast a rotation of Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, Samardzija, and Jon Danks. Samardzija makes the White Sox rotation look like a contender's rotation, and now their team looks like it could be a contender. The White Sox also added David Robertson to their relief corps that were highly inexperienced last season. Him and Zach Duke represent their transactions of relief pitchers this offseason, which helps to evolve a White Sox bullpen that previously didn't have anyone over the age of 27 in it. Duke and Roberston add experience and talent to a now-interesting Chicago team. Los Angeles Dodgers - Winner Dee Gordon, Howie Kendrick, Matt Kemp, Yasmani Grandal, Andrew Heaney, Enrique Hernandez, Brandon McCarthy, and Jimmy Rollins. What do all those names have in common? They were all involved in either a trade or a signing with the Dodgers. President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman kempt (sorry, bad pun) himself busy during these meetings, wheeling and dealing with the Phillies, Marlins, Angels, and Padres. I'm not even sure who is on their roster anymore. What makes the Dodgers a winner, you ask? They were able to unload one of their big-time outfielders (Kemp), while getting a young, promising catcher, something they needed, in return. They traded Dee Gordon, who posted a poor .648 OPS in the second half for Andrew Heaney, Chris Hatcher, and Austin Barnes. Heaney's career with the Dodgers didn't even last 12 hours, as they filled their hole at second base with an even better option than Gordon in Howie Kendrick, who, at 31, is among one of the better all-around second baseman in baseball. Oh yeah, they also signed Brandon McCarthy and traded for Jimmy Rollins, too. The Dodgers upgraded their outfield, catcher, shortstop, and rotation all in the matter of 24 hours. Miami Marlins - Winner Once the Miami Marlins signed Giancarlo Stanton to that big $325 million extension, I really wasn't sure if the Marlins thought they could be contenders, or if they just wanted to keep that gem they had in Stanton on their roster. After these Winter Meetings, I can definitely see that the former is true. They acquired Dee Gordon and Mat Latos at the Meetings, and while someone could argue that they gave up a lot, they are finally showing that they want to go all-in in 2015. Or at least have a shot at contending. The Marlins starting eight looks like this: Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna, Giancarlo Stanton, Casey McGehee, Adieny Hechavarria, Dee Gordon, Garrett Jones, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Their rotation? Jose Fernandez, Henderson Alvarez, Mat Latos, Nathan Evoldi, and Jarred Cosart. Now you tell me, do you think the Marlins are contenders? I would say definitely. By acquiring both Gordon and Latos at the Meetings, Miami ownership proved to the baseball world that they want and are wiling to play meaningful baseball for the first time since 2003. San Francisco Giants - Loser I'm still confused as to what the Giants really want to accomplish in 2015. The best move for San Francisco at the Winter Meetings was getting Madison Bumgarner on the cover of Sports Illustrated after winning the Sportsman of the Year award. In all seriousness, I think you have to attribute some of the Giants' offseason success, or lack there of, to just plain old bad luck. They finished third for Lester, second for Yasmany Tomas and Pablo Sandoval. But any good Giants fan would tell you that they finished first in the most important category. I'm still trying to understand where the Giants plan on spending the money that they were planning to give Lester, Tomas, or Sandoval. Could they go after a guy like James Shields? That would be interesting. Whatever the case, the Giants did not get better at the Winter Meetings. I guess that means San Francisco fans should just start watching the team again in 2016, the next even year. Baltimore Orioles - Loser The Orioles have lost Nelson Cruz, Nick Markakis, Andrew Miller, and now perhaps their general manager, Dan Duquette. It was rumored last weekend that Duquette might soon be on the move to Toronto to become the Blue Jays' CEO, but it was later reported that the Blue Jays would reconsider until after the 2015 season. Regardless, Duquette has to deal with a mess in Baltimore. Three months after winning the AL East, they lose Cruz and Markakis, two of their top performers from the season. The Orioles usually stay relatively quiet until later into the offseason anyway, so they might be able to salvage a good piece of what they lost with mid-tier free agents. But for now, their Winter Meetings weren't good, and they need to find a plan to get back to the top of the American League East, a division where the Blue Jays and Red Sox have already gotten better this offseason. --Devan Fink |