BTBS: Ervin Santana and the RA9-WAR vs. fWAR debate

Ervin Santana winds up, a 1-2 pitch ready to be delivered to Giants catcher Buster Posey. He steps and releases. At 87 mph, it’s an off-speed pitch, and Jason Castro presents it perfectly. Posey is rung up. Santana steps to the left of the mound, taps his cherry red glove twice and looks up to the sky, presumably thanking God. Then, he get a bro-hug from Castro. The Twinshave won, 4-0, and Santana has thrown a shutout in his league-leading third complete game of the season.

To some, Santana is having a career year at age-34. He’s pitched 95 innings to a 2.56 ERA, good for 5th in the Major Leagues. He’s 8-4. The Twins win when he’s pitching. To others, though, Santana’s performances have been “fool’s gold.” Sure, his ERA is elite, but even still, Santana’s strikeout-to-walk ratio is below his career average. He’s bound to regress.

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