Just a few days ago, the Diamondbacks stole home. There are a couple caveats that I must mention, though: a) it wasn’t a straight steal of home and b) it was against the reeling Mets, who did not make a great defensive play on the ball.
It’s still impressive, nonetheless, especially when you consider the player that made the play: Paul Goldschmidt. This wasn’t some herculean effort on Goldschmidt’s part either. In fact, he’s one of the best baserunners in the league and has been for quite some time. Goldschmidt ranks sixth in the league in stolen bases this year, with 10. He has more than noted speedsters Jose Altuve, Trea Turner and Jonathan Villar. And, in terms of baserunning runs above average, Goldschmidt ranks 3rd, with a +3.5. Only Jarrod Dyson (+4.3) and Billy Hamilton (+5.2) have more. Click here to read on Beyond The Box Score.
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Stop me if you’ve heard this before: with an improved pitch, a pitcher has significantly upped his performance. In my last two pieces, I wrote about Bud Norris’s and Mike Leake’s cutters, both of which have pushed them to another level. Today, I turn back to the American League, with a discussion of the Kansas City Royals’ surprising top starting pitcher: Jason Vargas.
Vargas isn’t getting any younger. He’s 34. Vargas is not throwing any harder. His fastball is averaging 86.1 mph; only four pitchers throw a four-seamer that is slower. Despite this, Vargas has a 1.01 ERA in 44 2⁄3 innings pitched this season, with FIP (2.16) and xFIP (3.70) numbers that would be career-bests over a full season. And, it wouldn’t even be close. Click here to read more on Beyond The Box Score. Over the past couple of weeks, I have wanted to take a look at pitchers who have seemingly stepped up their performance into the 2017 season. I stumbled upon two — Mike Leake and Bud Norris — completely unaware of the connections they have with one another, not just in their improvements, but exactly how they have improved.
If you’re a regular reader of mine, first, thank you. Second, this means that you probably read my article about Norris from Tuesday, in which I discussed his newfound dominance coming via just one pitch. Leake has done exactly the same thing, all the way down to the pitch he has improved with. This year, he’s made six starts for the Cardinals, allowing eight earned runs over 40 1⁄3 innings pitched for a 1.79 ERA. Perhaps even more encouraging are his peripherals; his 12.7 percent strikeout-minus-walk rate is the highest of his career. And while Leake has never been known as a power pitcher, his 17.2 percent strikeout rate is his second-highest season mark to date. Click here to read more on Beyond The Box Score. The last time you heard that Bud Norris was dominating was... likely never. At his best, he was a good-but-not-great starter with Houston who slowly slipped into irrelevancy as he aged.
The end of his career as an effective starter was seemingly epitomized in one 2016 start, while he was with the Braves—an April 27 outing against the Red Sox. Posting a Game Score of just 5, Norris lasted just 13 hitters before receiving the hook, allowing six runs on seven hits, walking one and striking out none. Oddly enough, Atlanta shipped him to the Dodgers midway through last year, and Norris had something of a revolution, at least by his standards. In his first start, he pitched six innings of shutout baseball with eight strikeouts. Where did this Bud Norris come from? we all wondered. But, in true Norris fashion, he regressed, ending up with a 6.54 ERA in his 42 2⁄3 innings with Los Angeles. Norris signed on with the other Los Angeles team over the offseason, inking a minors pact with the Angels of Anaheim. A strong Spring Training earned him a spot as the long reliever. But, by April 22, he was closing. Click here to read more on Beyond The Box Score. An infield fly ball is almost as bad as a strikeout. Think about it: Almost every single ball that’s hit in the air and stays inside the infield is caught. While a rare few do fall for hits, an infield fly balls will probably be caught 95-97 times out of every 100. The only outcome that produces more outs than an infield fly balls? Strikeouts.
The indirect data backs it up. Hitters hit .083 on “soft” fly balls in 2016, according to data from FanGraphs. Even still, only 52.8 percent of those soft fly balls stayed in the infield, suggesting that the batting average of infield fly balls was even lower. Despite the fact that the split itself does not exist, we can assume hitters reach on an infield fly ball around 4 to 5 percent of the time (or even less). On the flip side, pitchers who generate lots of infield fly balls tend to be more successful. Kyle Hendricks and Clayton Kershaw both are excellent on forcing hitters to hit the weak infield popup while keeping the ball down and out of the outfield. Kershaw and Hendricks aside, I wonder: Does limiting infield fly balls provide a significant benefit to hitters? And, if so, how much are hitters who limit them helped? Click here to read more on Beyond The Box Score. |