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Cover Those Bases

Why There's Reason to Be Skeptical About Yoan Moncada

4/17/2020

6 Comments

 
Is Yoan Moncada actually good? 

What a loaded question. On the surface, the former No. 1 overall prospect finally broke out in a big way last year at the age of 24. He slashed .315/.367/.548 with 25 home runs and a 141 wRC+ over 559 plate appearances. He was worth 5.7 WAR, making him the league's 16th-most valuable position player. There's no doubt about it -- Yoan Moncada had a good year. 

But is he actually good? There's certainly a distinction here. Over the offseason, I've seen some try to make the argument that he's better than Kris Bryant. And I've seen others try to put him in a similar class as Mike Trout, Cody Bellinger, and Francisco Lindor. Yes, Moncada's 2019 gave him that much helium, though perhaps that's really only been among White Sox fans. ​And while I'm all for defending your favorite team, I'm not sold on Moncada specifically.

​The short explanation is BABIP. Moncada's .406 mark in 2019 was the highest single-season BABIP since Rod Carew's .408 in 1977. That should scream "He got really lucky!" to you. Because Moncada, indeed, got really lucky. 

But how lucky? That's a more difficult question, especially because Moncada was a high BABIP guy to begin with. Over his first 901 plate appearances in the majors, from 2016 through 2018, Moncada's .343 BABIP put him in the top eight percent of players in the league. That indicates that Moncada is the type of player who can sustain a BABIP well above the league-average, which hovers around .300 every year. 

The argument that Moncada can sustain a higher BABIP than most has legs, but I caution those in using this as the sole reason why we can expect him to hit just as well in the future. That's why it's important to understand where Moncada's .400 BABIP came from and use that to develop a realistic expectation for upcoming performance. Baseball analysis is never as simple as one number. 

Normally, when a player breaks out, most analysts can point to two numbers as the jumping-off point (no pun intended): launch angle and groundball rate. Players who increase their average launch angle, decreasing their groundball rate in the process, tend to do well. Moncada, though, decreased his launch angle and increased his groundball rate, both indicators of regression, not improvement. Moncada's average launch angle fell from 15.1 degrees in 2018 to 12.0 in 2019, and his groundball rate increased from 37% to 42%. That's not what you want. 

But Moncada was the one case where that didn't matter. Almost inexplicably, he hit .382/.382/.421 on groundballs last year, good for a 118 wRC+. That wRC+ was nearly 100 points better than the league's (26). Moncada was the only player in baseball to post a 100 wRC+ on grounders. 

Spoiler: that's not sustainable. While some may argue that his high exit velocity on groundballs could've been the reason for that success, there's almost no correlation between average groundball exit velocity and groundball results. The purple dot is Moncada:
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So the argument that because Moncada hits the ball hard, leading to sustainable success, probably isn't a good one. Hitting the ball hard overall is good, but hitting the ball hard on the ground doesn't make a huge difference. Major league infielders are good at defense. 

​Others may make the argument that Moncada's speed does create a sustainable BABIP. I do concede that it is true that speed influences BABIP, but perhaps by not as much as you might think. Here's a plot of players with at least 300 plate appearances in 2019, evaluating the relationship between sprint speed and BABIP:
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There's a relationship, but it's not strong.

​Of course, it is also important to consider where Moncada fits into this. While he may have the perception of being fast, his 27.8 feet per second sprint speed only put him in the 66th percentile among players with at least 10 opportunities. Moncada may be faster than I'll ever be, but he's certainly no burner by major league standards. 

​Lastly, while I glossed over launch angle earlier in this article, it's important to understand where exactly Moncada's batted balls are coming from. Average launch angle is one metric to evaluate, but a distribution is better. Why? Think about it this way: If a player put two batted balls into play, one at 60 degrees and one at 0 degrees, his average launch angle is 30 degrees. That is not an average that is representative of the data, though of course, it does even out with larger batted ball samples. Even still, there can be bimodal distributions or skewed distributions all the like. I wrote a little bit about this over at FanGraphs when discussing Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and I think a deeper dive into Moncada's batted ball distribution will be helpful as well. 

First, let's think about successful outcomes as a function of launch angle:
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Batted balls between 0 and 30 degrees are pretty clearly the sweet spot, though more context is always helpful. 

The MLB-average wOBA in 2019 was .320. A hitter can be expected to produce at least the MLB-average wOBA when putting the ball in play between -2 and 36 degrees. (There are some exceptions here, like below -75 degrees, but that mostly comes in the form of bunt singles.) Moncada was in that range on 58% of his batted balls last season, which, again, means nothing to you without more context. That's pretty significantly above league-average (52%) and only a touch below Mike Trout (60%). In fact, among the 281 players with at least 100 batted balls, Moncada's decent-launch-angle rate put him in the 89th percentile. 

That certainly works in Moncada's favor, but working against his sustainability is the production he had outside of that range. Going back to my earlier point about his success on groundballs, Moncada posted a .232 wOBA on batted balls hits with a launch angle of -2 degrees or below, the fifth-highest mark in baseball. And though one could attempt to make the argument that he hit the ball harder or got out of the box faster than his peers, leading to this success, I don't think that holds up. 

Moncada also benefitted from potential good luck on batted balls hit above 36 degrees. His .124 wOBA on those events ranked 39th out of 175 hitters with 300 batted ball events, and his 24-point difference between his wOBA and xwOBA on those outcomes ranked 49th.

Moncada got lucky everywhere, and he somehow managed to avoid intra-season regression, which led to his inflated perception during the offseason. When the luck inevitably runs out, I worry about how far his production may fall.

It's always fun to bring in Mike Trout as the gold standard, so let's use him as a case study for Moncada. Trout, who maintained a .358 BABIP from 2012 through 2018, saw some of the worst batted ball luck of his career last year, putting up a .298 mark. But he managed to post a 180 wRC+ if only due to his outstanding plate discipline and increase in power. As a player, you're isolated from batted ball luck if you're constantly putting the ball over the fence, and Trout homered 45 times last season despite only registering 600 plate appearances. He also walked 18% of the time and struck out just 20%. Ultimately, while his .291 batting average seemed uncharacteristic, he set a career-high in slugging and actually posted an OBP above his career-average to that point.

Moncada would need to overhaul his 2019 game in order to see similar results. Unlike Trout, who gets on base nearly one-in-five times without having to swing the bat, Moncada is extremely dependent on batted ball luck because he puts the ball in play quite often. He walked in just 7% of plate appearances last year, striking out in nearly 28%. While putting the ball in play often can work as a successful strategy for offensive production (Yuli Gurriel is a great example), it won't work if you're striking out as often as Moncada. 

To demonstrate this, I exported each player-season of at least 300 plate appearances since 2010. There was a correlation between BABIP and wOBA, with an r-squared of .26. But for the 31 players who I deemed similar to Moncada -- a walk rate between 6.2% and 8.2% and a strikeout-plus-walk-rate between 34.7% and 36.7% -- that r-squared jumped to .40. Players like Moncada are 54% more dependent on batted ball luck than the population on total production, precisely because of a poor walk-to-strikeout ratio.

When you take all of this into account, it's easy to see why I'm not convinced about Moncada going forward. He had a great season in 2019. But is he a great player? The jury is still out.
6 Comments
baseballfan
4/17/2020 07:11:08 pm

You don't think the fact that he had one of the highest exit velo averages, combined with squaring up the ball and placing it well had something to do with his high BABIP? Doesnt BABIP technically treat a weak groundball single the same as a double off the wall, for example? He had a slugging percentage higher than the league average. He improved in K%, improved dramatically at hitting off speed pitches and had a way better approach at the plate. Watch his highlights from last season, and you'll see that he placed the ball really well. His spray charts are telling, but watching him last season, I think he's here to stay. Will he hit .315 again, probably not. But there's reason to think he can hit around .300 and maintain his slugging percentage. Not to mention, any regression he may have at the plate could be offset by his continued improvements at 3B. Overall, your analysis is flawed in that it relies on BABIP too heavily. Theres

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Devan Fink
4/17/2020 09:13:10 pm

I think I addressed most of this in the article, and I really don't think "placing the ball" is a skill that hitters have. I also think the drop-off could be much more significant than just 15 points of batting average.

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Baseballfan
4/17/2020 11:33:39 pm

I disagree. Some players have a tendency to pull the ball, others can use the whole field. Timing obviously affects this, as does where you put the ball on the bat. It's not necessarily a skill, because I think it's a hard thing to learn. But there's drills to practice and some people just have this natural ability and can use it really effectively. Bad defensive 1b, try to pull the ball by swinging quicker. These guys absolutely take these things into consideration. When I played, I was never good at trying to purposely get on top of a ball or under a ball, or hit it early enough, but my teammates were. I think Moncada has that skill. He has pretty consistently used the whole field from both sides of the plate, that's going to lead to success. EV comes into play here. If you hit it in a decent spot and its traveling fast enough, a player isn't going to be able to easily run over and make the play.

Moncada wasnt too good at hitting off speed pitches, and there's still room for improvement. When you have a heater coming at you 100mph, sure its hard to be strategic in where you put the bat on the ball. But when you see offspeed pitches better, you can be more strategic. If you can hit a good off speed pitch low in the zone and place it well, you're going to have success.

In general, i think you're too hard on a well-placed ground ball. Look at Dee Gordon. He's has a low launch angle, but gets on base enough. Why? Well placed ground balls. He's obviously much faster than Moncada, but looking at his spray chart from last year it's not like he legged out a ton of grounders. If you can hit a hard enough grounder up the middle, you're gonna get a single. That's significant. Moncadas shifts and stats from both sides of the plate and corresponding wOBA are really interesting too.

Looking at more of Moncada's charts, his highest EV came at pitches low in the zone. His highest launch angle came at pitches high in the zone. He's clearly making good contact on low pitches. He's clearly not producing weak ground balls. Here's where it gets interesting. His highest expected average is a ball low and over middle of the plate. That's also where his highest EV is. His average EV is 98.9MPH there. Ask anyone who's played baseball if they'd rather field a 80mph grounder up the middle, or a 99mph grounder. Don't think that's a coincidence.

I think the drop in launch angle could've helped him actually. Before I was seeing him hit a lot of bloopers. Last season he hit a lot of sharp liners with what seemed to have a lower hang time. You fail to point out that his line drive percentage improved. In addition, the mechanics of his swing remarkably improved. He's keeping his hip stable, shoulder low, and hitting the shit out of the ball. With his approach at the plate, I think this is something we could see him continuing to improve on.

Sure his success in hitting ground balls contributes to a higher BABIP. But that's not the only reason it increased. When he hit the ball in the air, it goes far and fast. Those are hard to field. As i mentioned, his LD improved, and it was above league average. His pop up percentage decreased quite a bit, also well below leauge average. His mechanics and approach at the plate contributed to this. About 20% of his fly balls were HR. If he can improve on hitting more FB, he'll be an unbelievable slugger. Any improvements here are going to offset any ground ball outs he may have.

You rely too heavily on BABIP without considering everything else. I am a Twins fan, so I watched a lot of him when the Twins played him, and followed him because I think he's a really fun (and scary) player. I don't think it's luck that led to his success. I think it's skill. For these reasons and more, i dont think there will be much more than a 15 point drop off in BA. I do hope you're right that there will be some regression, being a twins fan, but I dont think so. Your analysis is good but too focused, thereby making your conclusion flawed. If you analyze his mechanics and swing profile, you'd reach a different conclusion. He might drop off in some places, but everything about him tells me he's going to improve overall.

Devan Fink
4/18/2020 12:13:33 am

I appreciate the depth of your comments, but I still have to agree to disagree with you. Specifically, I disagree with your comment that I am "too hard on a well-placed ground ball." There are no such things as well-placed groundballs anymore. Check out this article that talks about groundballs up the middle. As you said yourself, "If you can hit a hard enough grounder up the middle, you're gonna get a single." The data would suggest that's not really the case anymore, either: https://sportsinfosolutionsblog.com/2019/07/22/poor-alex-bregman/. Simply, groundballs are bad, and Moncada is going to regress. Hard.

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baseballfan
4/19/2020 05:19:34 pm

I agree with and this article generally, but it's hard to reconcile with in Moncada's case. Look at his numbers in response to shifts, and when there's no shifts. He's consistent on both sides of the plate. Look at his charts and data showing where he hits it when a shift is on or not. The Bregman article doesn't say much about Moncada. Just to distinguish bregman and moncada more, moncada hits the ball way harder than bregman. His avg exit velo on balls low in the zone was much less than Moncadas. I know exit velo doesnt mean success on GB if you don't hit it to the right place, but if you hit it in an opening hard enough, a defender won't be quick enough to get there, or he might get an error. This, along with Moncada's data on shifts, doesn't convince me.

The biggest issue I take with your analysis is the failure to point out his improvements and how that's amounted to success for him. Specifically increasing line drive %, which is most productive type of hit.

Also, a 100mph ground ball up the middle is going to be easier to field than a fly ball. Ask any competitive ball player. In general, if he's getting pitches at the knees and smoking those balls, he'll have more success than someone who gets a pitch at the knees and hits a chopper to 2nd. If he does this and continues taking advantage of pitches in the upper part of the zone, he's going to continue having success at the plate. Most guys are striking out or hitting weak ground balls on the pitches that he's smoking up the middle. While he's hitting more grounders, they're on pitches most guys would get on top of or strike out on.

In short, he's doing what he can with the pitches he gets. And he's having success, using the entire field, hitting the ball hard and in the sweet spot, etc.

Stats dont tell the entire story of his game. I just dont think you can make the kind of conclusion you make,
at least without analyzing the whole story. This is especially true when you fail to point out other stats and take a narrow minded approach. BABIP is not everything. I'd love to see a more in depth analysis of Moncadas 2019 season from you though, I think you'd reach a different conclusion.

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Adam
4/18/2020 06:59:30 pm

You’re a moron.

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