If demand is high and supply is low, especially "good" supply, then the teams with those players in demand are going to get an excellent deal.
That is exactly what is going to happen with the Atlanta Braves and Julio Teheran.
After James Shields was dealt earlier this month, the starting pitching trade market has come down to one player: Teheran. Sure, other pitchers could be moved, but at this moment in time, it appears that Teheran is going to be the hot item at the non waiver trade deadline on Aug. 1.
Teams, most notably the Boston Red Sox, are already scouting Teheran's starts, trying to get an early jump on the young right-hander. Other teams are expected to jump into the sweepstakes in the coming weeks.
The only problem is that the Braves are not interested in trading Teheran at this time.
General manager John Coppolella took to Twitter on Friday to discuss his team's plans with the fans.
Coppolella said that he does not "see us trading Teheran right now."
That is not the right mindset, especially considering the starting pitching market, or lack thereof, at this moment in time and Teheran's contract status. Both these factors give the Braves a reason to at least listen to deals on Teheran and not just rule out a trade outright.
Teheran's value could not be higher. He's having a career year, having pitched to a 2.46 ERA in 16 starts this season. While these are phenomenal results, pitching metrics such as FIP (3.68) and xFIP (4.00) suggest that Teheran is due for some regression and is more of a league-average pitcher.
In 2015, Teheran was more of that type of pitcher. His ERA of 4.04 was more in line with his FIP (4.40) and xFIP (4.19). If that's the pitcher he truly is, the Braves should want to dump him now, knowing that they could get way more than what he is actually worth in return.
Part of the reason for Teheran's success is that hitters have just a .209 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) against him. This shows that he's been extremely lucky with the defense behind him, something that surely cannot be sustained going forward. Teheran's career BABIP against is .270.
An argument for keeping Teheran is his contract status.
Teheran, who is just 25, is signed through 2019 and owed just $25.3 million in future commitments. He also has an option for 2020 at $12 million with $1 million buyout.
With the Braves hoping to contend in 2017 or 2018, Teheran will still likely be there with them if Atlanta decides not to move him. However, it is unlikely he still will be pitching like an ace, the way he is now.
His contract could be looked in the other way too. Teheran has more teams salivating for him due to his long-term contract status.
This is like what happened with Cole Hamels' trade market last year. The Rangers acquired Hamels from the Phillies not to contend in 2015, but to contend in 2016 and beyond because of his long-term contract status. (Though, the Rangers did end up going on a tear in the second half of the season and made the playoffs anyway.)
By Teheran not being a rental, his market is opened up to really any team in Major League Baseball.
With his value as high as it is, and the supply of starting pitching being as low as it is, the Braves need to strongly consider shopping Julio Teheran during the trade deadline season over the next month.