For a lack of a better word, the relief pitching market is set to explode during the 2016-17 offseason.
It's already coming to fruition. The Cardinals got Brett Cecil on a four-year, $30.5 million deal earlier today.
Yes, in terms of baseball contracts, that's not a number that necessarily jumps off the page. However, it's truly going to set a market which is expected to be the most lucrative for relief pitchers. Ever.
Consider this: during the 2014-15 offseason (so two offseasons ago), Andrew Miller signed a four-year, $36 million deal with the New York Yankees. At the time, it was considered to be a big deal for a non-closing reliever. (Miller did not begin to close until after signing the contract.)
Miller was coming off of three strong seasons of being an effective reliever and, like Cecil, was going into his age-30 season. But, even though he wasn't the best reliever in baseball like he is now (sorry, Zach Britton), in this market, Miller would have blown past what Cecil earned. I'm sure of it.
Cecil has a very respectable 2.90 ERA and 3.68 K/BB ratio over the past four years, all of which he has been used specifically as a reliever. Miller, on the other hand, was coming off of three seasons of a 2.57 ERA and a 3.74 K/BB. So, he was slightly better, but not enough to truly warrant a huge deal.
However, when taking into consideration the contract years each of them had, one can see where Miller would earned way more than what Cecil did today.
In 2014, the season going into his free agency, Miller posted a 2.02 ERA, a 14.9 K/9 ratio and a 2.5 BB/9 ratio in 62.1 IP, cutting the amount of walks he issued in half from the previous season. Cecil, on the other hand, worked to a 3.93 ERA, a 11.0 K/9 ratio and a 2.0 BB/9 ratio in just 36.2 IP. He spent a lot of last season injured.
Now, if the Cardinals are willing to spent almost $31 million on a guy who sat out almost all of May and June, how much would they (or anyone else) have spent on a guy with Andrew Miller's numbers who stayed healthy for an entire season? I'm thinking $40 million or more.
Now, we've got two Andrew Miller-caliber relievers out on the free agent market: Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen. With baseball's stigma towards closers being more important than regular relievers (they're not, but that's a discussion for another time), they're already going to be guaranteed much more than the $30 million Cecil earned.
I didn't think it was possible, but Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen could earn $80 million or more, with the former possibly pushing $100 million. No, I'm not joking.
Teams have seen how the Cubs, Indians, Royals and other successful postseason teams have used their relievers over the past few years. And with talk that baseball could expand to 26-man rosters, bullpens are not going away anytime soon. They're only going to become more prevalent . . . and more expensive.
If you are a free agent in Major League baseball, strike a lot of guys out, and pitch and inning or two max, you're going to make a lot of money this offseason. Brett Cecil can tell you all about it.
Amidst all the fun that comes with the World Series--the storylines, triumphs, defeats--an unfortunate story was leaked on Tuesday.
New York Mets closer Jeurys Familia was arrested on Oct. 31 due to domestic violence allegations. It is awful to hear about yet another professional athlete doing something like this. It is even worse when realizing Familia had taken part in an ad campaign against domestic violence released just in the past month, where he says, in Spanish, “I am not fan of domestic violence.”
While the news is still developing and details are still becoming available to the public, I ask Rob Manfred, when the time comes, to truly consider the implications of the punishment when it is handed down to Familia.
Manfred has done well, at least I believe he has, so far when handling domestic violence cases. According to MLB policy, it is 100 percent up to Manfred’s discretion when handing down a punishment.
Manfred, thus far during his tenure as commissioner, has had to handle three higher-profile domestic violence cases. And, of course, he has handed down three distinct punishments.
Mets’ infielder Jose Reyes was arrested and charged in Hawaii last October due to a domestic violence complaint. Though, after his wife would not cooperate with authorities, charges were dropped. Manfred’s punishment was a 51-game ban.
Cubs’ reliever Aroldis Chapman was not arrested nor charged in a domestic violence incident last December. Manfred barred him 30 games, but he is pitching in the playoffs for Chicago, generating controversy within itself.
Free agent Hector Olivera was arrested and charged outside Washington D.C. last April. His trial did go through the courts system, and he was found guilty, receiving 10 days of jail time. Manfred passed down an 82-game suspension to Olivera, who looks unlikely to receive another shot at playing in the Major Leagues.
For Familia, though, I am not asking Manfred to hand out a specific punishment. I think I am (we probably all are, at the moment) not informed enough on the subject or even how to develop a suspension to just throw a number out there. That is not what this is about.
I am asking Manfred, however, to begin to develop a precedent for future cases. Sure, he has, to an extent, dealt with that with Reyes’, Chapman’s and Olivera’s issues, but even each of their cases carried different impacts.
Chapman, obviously, is the most known and best player of the three. He also was not charged nor arrested. It makes sense, then, as to why he received the least amount of punishment from that specific angle.
Reyes is still known, but he is well past his prime. The Rockies swiftly parted ways with Reyes after he returned from suspension, where they may have been more reluctant to do so had Chapman been their player. In fact, Chapman was still sought out by teams, first by the Yankees during the same offseason in which the allegations were brought against him, and then by the Cubs who needed a playoff push. It is not against any rule to pursue a player associated with domestic violence, but it is a little sad to think teams are able to overlook that in the name of winning.
And then there is Olivera, who was arrested and charged but is relatively unknown in terms of the baseball world. That, specifically, is why I cannot see him making a return to the big leagues.
With Familia, Manfred is dealing with a player that falls into the same category as Chapman in terms of stardom and will either fall into the same category as Reyes or Olivera in terms of the severity of the legal proceedings.
All I ask from Manfred is that he stays consistent. Sure, I enjoy baseball, but I am also a sports fan. And, I have seen far too much where the National Football League, in particular, has gone wrong in terms of handing out punishments. They are either lenient and then made stricter due to press coverage (look at Josh Brown’s case), causing a whole headache for the league and its fans overall.
Domestic violence is downright gross. It does not have a place in any society. But, commissioner Manfred still (unfortunately) has to deal with it. And my hopes are that he is sincere, consistent and takes all into consideration before dealing with his next challenge.
It seems like an eternity ago, but Game 5 of the 2016 NLDS ended in a dramatic fashion.
Of course, the main storyline was the fact that Clayton Kershaw came out of the bullpen to close out the Dodgers' 4-3 win. Flashing back to the 7th inning, though, is where the Nationals--and Dusty Baker--fell apart.
To open up the inning, Dodgers' center fielder Joc Pederson hit a first-pitch home run off of Max Scherzer, tying the game at one apiece. With Scherzer at 99 pitches, Baker decided that he would be done for the evening and turned to his bullpen.
Madness ensued. After Scherzer, it took five relievers to get the three outs in the inning. Four runs scored, and the Nationals' postseason hopes went down the drain as quickly as they began.
Where did Baker make his mistake? Bullpen management. If Dusty Baker's name was Terry Francona, it would not have been Marc Rzepczynski coming in to relieve Scherzer. Rather, it would have been Mark Melancon, who pitched the final four outs despite his team being down a run instead of tied.
Of course, hindsight is 20-20, and Baker could not have known that his bullpen was going to give up four runs with the bases empty and nobody out. At the very least, Melancon should have been in the game after Charlie Culberson struck out against Blake Treinen to make the first out of the inning. Two runners were on base, and it was obviously the biggest moment of the Nationals' season. Instead, 28-year-old Sammy Solis, who had just a career 62.1 regular season innings pitched, came into the game and promptly gave up the go-ahead runs.
We've seen this a lot, especially in the past few postseasons. Good bullpen management wins postseason baseball games. In the 2014 World Series, it was Madison Bumgarner who pitched five innings of relief in Game 7 to lead the Giants to the crown.
In 2015, it was the Kansas City Royals' entire bullpen to lead them to the championship. That year, it was less of Ned Yost having good bullpen management than it was the Royals' bullpen being so dominant. It just did not matter.
This year, however, it's more about the management than anything else.
Andrew Miller, the Indians' relief ace, won the ALCS MVP award, and he only technically made one "save." (And it wasn't even the traditional three out, ninth-inning-only type save.) In the series, Miller came into the game in the seventh, seventh, eighth, and sixth innings during his four appearances.
As a Yankee for the first half of this season, Miller pitched in the seventh inning once. He came into the game in the seventh more during the American League Championship Series than he did during the entire first half of the season.
And that speaks volumes about the riskiness of Indians manager Terry Francona, who, before this World Series, had never lost a single World Series game. There's a reason for that. Francona is willing to take the risks to be a successful manager that few others are. Francona pitches his best relievers in the most dire situations. That is one of the reasons why he is on the fast track to the Baseball Hall of Fame.
While Cubs manager Joe Maddon is not given the same praise for his bullpen usage as Terry Francona, he's done a nice job this postseason, too.
No, he is not using Aroldis Chapman in the fourth inning. But he does manage to use the right relievers in the right situations, including the use of--yes--Chapman in Game 6 of the NLCS for the final five outs.
The 2016 World Series is seeing two great managers go at it. And this year, perhaps more than ever, is truly changing the game and how bullpens will be viewed going forward.
No matter who wins, baseball will get something more out of it than just a long-term drought coming to an end. Baseball is going to get a change in philosophy. The best pitchers are going to finally be pitching in the situations they are needed most.
The 2016 season has come to a close, which is unfortunate in some respects. But it appears we are going to have an exciting postseason ahead of us--we always do, honestly--perhaps adding a little bit of sunshine on the overall sadness that another year has gone by.
But, with every 2,430 games that come in a single baseball season, some players (and managers), stand out above the rest. Thus, we honor them, and I’ll do my best here to provide my selections for both leagues’ top awards. Without further ado, my MVP picks and choices for the rest of the major awards. . .
National League Most Valuable Player: Kris Bryant, Chicago Cubs (8.4 fWAR)
It’s still hard to think that Bryant was a rookie just last year, but the former No. 2 overall pick has proven why he was one of the most hyped prospects since Bryce Harper and Mike Trout. Bryant, this season, hit for a .292/.385/.554 slash, popping 39 home runs and driving in 102 RBI. He’s been by far the best player on by far the best team in baseball, making the MVP award almost a lock for him.
Worth nothing: The Cubs as a whole have four of the top-15 players in OBP this season, and they’re all right near each other, at Nos. 11, 13, and two tied for 14 (Bryant is here). Bryant, even with the fourth-best isolated power in the NL, still manages to be a top-15 player at getting on-base. That’s a lethal combination right there.
Runner Up: Daniel Murphy, Washington Nationals (5.5 fWAR)
American League Most Valuable Player: Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels (9.4 fWAR)
I’ve ranted a lot on Twitter about Trout being the American League MVP, including the usage of the #TeamTrout hashtag, which may or may not actually exist elsewhere. But, the debate about whether we should name an MVP based on whether a player is playing a pennant race is appalling. Sure, “valuable” and “best” are definitely different words, and I think most (if not all) would agree that Trout is the best player in the American League. But even still, as Dave Cameron of FanGraphs said it best, by naming an MVP on a contending team, we’re basically rewarding a player for having good teammates.
Maybe if the race was closer, I’d consider looking elsewhere. It’s harder to play better under the stress of a pennant race, so guys like Mookie Betts, Josh Donaldson and Manny Machado should get some credit, but they are so far behind Trout it really isn’t fair to the Millville Meteor, as he is often called. This season, Trout hit for a .315/.441/.550 slash and sat on 29 home runs, 100 RBI and 30 steals, all while playing solid defense in center.
Runner Up: Mookie Betts, Boston Red Sox (7.7 fWAR)
National League Cy Young: Jose Fernandez, Miami Marlins (6.2 fWAR)
What happened to Fernandez is obviously upsetting to everyone in the baseball community, and it’s hard to say that I did not take that into account when making this selection. The National League featured lots of good pitchers this season, but no one pitcher really took the spotlight this year, as Clayton Kershaw often does. This, then, leads me to Fernandez, who definitely comes with his array qualifications to get the nod, tragedy aside. But honestly, there’s not a better way to honor Fernandez then by giving him an award he was likely to get at some point during his career.
Looking at the conventional stats, Fernandez posted a 2.86 ERA this season, ranking 7th in the National League. His 16 wins tie him for fifth. But his 182 ⅓ innings put him down at 19th, and if there’s a reason as to why he won’t win the award, this is likely it. But Fernandez really shines in the advanced metrics, with only one pitcher, Noah Syndergaard, having a better FIP and no pitcher having a better xFIP. Fernandez also struck out batters at the highest rate in the NL, with his K-BB% also ranking first. In a wide-open field, Fernandez could capture the NL Cy Young award this year.
Runner Up: Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals (5.6 fWAR)
American League Cy Young: Chris Sale, Chicago White Sox (5.2 fWAR)
Asking me to pick an American League Cy Young is like asking me to choose between a glazed or a sprinkled doughnut. Yes, I like doughnuts. But if Boston Creme isn’t an option, I could take it or leave it. The American League Cy Young race lacks a Boston Creme, and it’s filled with glazed and sprinkled (with maybe a jelly-filled in there somewhere). Due to the lack of a true “Cy qualified” candidate, many writers have found themselves choosing Zach Britton, something I cannot get myself behind, purely due to his lack of innings pitched. So, this leads me to the White Sox’ Sale.
Sale tied Rick Porcello and Justin Verlander on the fWAR leaderboard, with 5.2 wins above replacement, but Porcello got over six-and-a-half runs per game in run support (ranking first in the Majors), obviously making his job much easier. Sale received 4.47 runs of support per game, ranking 32nd of 74 qualified starters. Sale didn’t rank 1st in the AL in FIP (3nd) or xFIP (7th), but sometimes it’s a combination of results and dominance, which is where Sale finds himself. His K-BB% is the 2nd highest in the league, and his overall 17-9 record with a 3.21 ERA isn’t shabby either. Sale has the chocolate sprinkles in this race, which are obviously better than rainbow.
Runner Up: Rick Porcello, Boston Red Sox (5.2 fWAR)
National League Rookie of the Year: Corey Seager, Los Angeles Dodgers (7.5 fWAR)
Seager is not just a Rookie of the Year candidate. He’s also an MVP candidate and should easily finish in the top 5 of the voting. The 22-year-old hit like a big league veteran this season, slashing .308/.365/.512 with 26 home runs and 72 RBI, providing stellar defense at the game’s hardest position, shortstop. In terms of fAWR, Seager more than doubles second-place Trea Turner, who may have made this a closer race had he played more than 73 games.
Seager’s dominance in this race does not need much more backing, perhaps outside of the fact that he was the second-most valuable player (fWAR) in the NL this season, period.
Runner Up: Trea Turner, Washington Nationals (3.2 fWAR)
American League Rookie of the Year: Gary Sanchez, New York Yankees (3.1 fWAR)
In the AL, you’ve got a ridiculously close race between two well-worthy candidates: Gary Sanchez, Yankees’ catcher; and Michael Fulmer, Tigers’ starting pitcher. Both, believe it or not, were worth almost exactly the same amount of fWAR, but I’m going with Sanchez here.
My reasoning for this pick is quite simple, actually: Sanchez made history, whereas Fulmer was good. Good usually wins this award, but when you have history, I think you have to side with that. Sanchez hit 20 home runs this season while playing just 53 games. It may be hard to give a player who played just two months of the season this award, but Fulmer himself only made 26 starts, raising the question of who truly had a larger impact. Sanchez plays a premium position defensively, and he’s pretty good at it, catching 11 of 30 runners stealing among other things. He also slashed .299/.376/.657 this year, which speaks by itself.
Runner Up: Michael Fulmer, Detroit Tigers (3.0 fWAR)
National League Manager of the Year: Dusty Baker, Washington Nationals
The Nationals effectively ended their 2015 season with Bryce Harper being choked by Jonathan Papelbon in a dugout skirmish that ex-manager Matt Williams apparently did not see. Somehow, Baker managed Papelbon and Harper together (more just Papelbon by himself), and it appeared that no problems arose. The Nationals moved quite smoothly up until Papelbon was released (more due to performance than anything else) and continued to steamroll right along through the rest of the season.
If I told you at the beginning of the season that Harper was going to hit .243 this season with “just” an .814 OPS, and asked you to predict the Nationals’ record, many of you would have likely predicted them to win about 85 games, or perhaps even less. The Nationals went on to win 95 games this year and run away with the NL East. It’s true, not all of the credit should be attributed to Baker; Wilson Ramos had a phenomenal year behind the plate, Trea Turner provided a spark plug during the second half of the season; and the back-end of the rotation more than picked up the slack for the loss of Stephen Strasburg for extended amounts of time. Baker did a very nice job in his first season as Nationals’ manager, and thus, he’s my pick for NL Manager of the Year.
Runner Up: Joe Maddon, Chicago Cubs
American League Manager of the Year: Terry Francona, Cleveland Indians
Francona has been a phenomenal manager throughout his entire career, leading both the Red Sox and the Indians to success (though his tenure with the Phillies from 1997 to 2000 is often forgotten, for obvious reasons).
In 2016, Francona showed excellent bullpen management especially. What really stood out to me in particular was his willingness to use Andrew Miller in roles outside of the 9th inning, taking the advice to use your best pitcher in the most important situations to heart. Miller made at least one appearance in the sixth, seventh, eighth and ninth innings with Cleveland. It’s also important to note that the Indians ran away with the AL Central and finished with the second-best record in the league.
Runner Up: Jeff Banister, Texas Rangers
The Yankees haven't sold at the trade deadline since 1989.
Frankly, it's because they haven't had to.
New York's last season finishing under .500 came in 1992. That's 24 years ago. In those 24 years, the Yankees have made the playoffs all but five times, winning five World Series.
The 2016 Yankees are historic. They're 53-52 and in jeopardy of breaking this ridiculous streak of great Yankees teams.
And now, at the trade deadline, the Yankees also did something historic. They sold. And, boy, did they sell big.
Looking at it as a whole, the Yankees made five trades involving Major League players.
They traded away Aroldis Chapman, Andrew Miller, Ivan Nova, Carlos Beltran and Vicente Campos.
They received Gleyber Torres, Adam Warren, Billy McKinney, Rashad Crawford, Clint Frazier, Justus Sheffield, Ben Heller, J.P. Feyereisen, Tyler Clippard, Dillon Tate, Erik Swanson, Nick Green and two players to be named later.
At the trade deadline, the Yankees pretty much added an entire 25-man roster. (Okay, in reality, they really added 14 new guys, but you get the gist.)
Prior to this season, the Yankees had a decent farm system. They ranked 16th in the Majors on Baseball Prospectus' farm system rankings, moving up five slots from 2015. But these trades really made their future team so much better.
The team added baseball's No. 22 prospect, No. 24 prospect and No. 93 prospect, almost doubling the number of Top 100 prospects in their system. Of their Top 30 prospects, five have come over via these July/August trades.
Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner did something that goes 100 percent against his business model: giving in. Hal and the Yankees have proven that they want to be winners season-in and season-out. They're willing to go big or go home on free agents and take on huge payrolls. But the Yankees have never done something like they just did this past month.
And honestly, that just shows where baseball is at these days.
When the Yankees know the importance of prospects, a rebuild and the future, the parity of baseball shines through. The Indians are going for the American League championship this year, the Cubs are going for the National League championship and the Yankees are content with building for the future.
Brian Cashman did a great job at this trade deadline. He understands that, in order to build the next great Yankees dynasty, they needed to get rid of their current one. In a seller's market like this one, Cashman and company could not have chosen a better time to move their big trade chips and start planning for the future.
So my biggest winner at the 2016 trade deadline? The New York Yankees, who have given up for the first time since George H.W. Bush was in office.