It was coming to an end. It was Feb. 12, 2016, and the bulk of the 2015-2016 offseason had passed, with many baseball fans excited for the start of Spring Training with pitchers and catchers reporting.
Billy Beane and company in the Athletics’ front office were not done making the final tweaks to their roster going into this season.
Fast forward six months, and here’s outfielder Khris Davis, on Aug. 14, hitting his 30th home run of the season. Looking back at it now, the move for Davis could pay dividends for the Athletics for many seasons to come.
Back on Feb. 12, the Athletics acquired outfielder Khris Davis from the Milwaukee Brewers in exchange for two minor league prospects: Jacob Nottingham and Bowdien Derby.
At the time of the trade, I wrote:
“By adding Davis, the Athletics demonstrated their willingness to aim for contention in 2016. … He boosts the middle of their order, while also deepening their outfield.”
Davis has been all that and more for the Athletics this season, hitting .255/.295/.517 with the 30 home runs and 75 runs batted in. He’s posted a 116 wRC+, and coming into Sunday, he had been worth 1.3 Wins Above Replacement (FanGraphs). He struggles on the bases and in the field, but his power is real, with a .262 isolated power this season.
I will say, however, that Davis does not come without his flaws, even offensively. He strikes out a lot and does not walk often, but in a league where right-handed power is rare, some of those flaws can be overlooked to an extent.
Even when looking at the Brewers’ return, the addition of Davis looks even more promising for the Athletics down the road.
Nottingham, a catcher, is a legit prospect. He ranks 15th on the Brewers’ Top-30 prospect list (MLB.com) but is only hitting .236/.296/.337 in 390 plate appearances down in Double-A, adding 8 homers and 31 runs batted in. His defense is decent and currently ranks as a 40 (below average) on the 20-80 scale, with his arm coming in as a 50 (average), according to MLB.com.
As for Derby, he is not ranked on the Brewers’ Top 30 list. He’s 22 and only in Class A-Advanced, where the lefty has gone 6-10 with a 5.32 ERA and a 93-41 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 111 2/3 innings pitched this year. The San Diego St. product has not shown lots of promise on the stats sheet, to say the least.
Giving up prospects isn’t exactly what a non-contending team wants to do, regardless of how prominent they are. I know I wrote that the Athletics could contend by making this move back in Feb., but that has not been the case. I still like this deal for the team, though, for multiple reasons.
First off, he’s cheap and he will be cheap for awhile. Davis isn’t arbitration eligible until next offseason, giving the Athletics plenty of time to build a lineup around him. He’s also not a free agent until after the 2019 season. Right now, Davis is making just over the league minimum at $525,000.
Secondly, the Athletics could decide to move him in another trade further down the road. Nottingham is decent, and plays a premium position, but I would be willing to bet the Athletics would be getting a better prospect package in return for Davis than they gave up.
Just look at the trade the Mets made for Jay Bruce. Bruce, a power-hitting outfielder with little defense capabilities, fetched the Reds Dilson Herrera, an infielder that is no longer a prospect but still has lots of potential, and lefty Max Wotell, who ranks No. 21 on their Top-30 prospects. Bruce came with another year of control, too, which could be an exact move the Athletics make at the 2018 trade deadline, albeit with Davis.
And, obviously, the earlier they decide to dump him (if ever), the more they’ll get in return.
To recap, Davis is an option that helps the Athletics now and in the future, and perhaps even further into the future if they decide to flip him somewhere else.
So perhaps one of the best moves of this past offseason was the Athletics’ trade of slugging outfielder Khris Davis, no matter how late in the offseason it came.
We are five weeks away from actual baseball. While Spring Training games still haven't started, it is time for my second divisional preview, this time focusing on the National League Central. (I did the NL East last Saturday, so check that out too.) This division is a competitive one, with three teams bunched closely at the top.
1. Chicago Cubs -- 2015 Record: 97-65; 2016 Projection: 100-62
The Cubs took the third-best team in baseball and made it even better this offseason. The team went 97-65 last season, and though they finished third in this very division, the team raced through the playoffs before being eliminated by the New York Mets in the National League Championship Series. The Cubs just did not have the deep rotation they needed to outlast the Mets and that showed. The Cubs were swept.
Naturally, the first thing the Cubs did this offseason was add John Lackey, an established veteran starter and at a pretty good rate too. Lackey, now 37, cannot be expected to repeat his great 2015 (2.77 ERA in 218 IP), but still should be more than capable as the third best starter in the Cubs' rotation, behind reigning NL Cy Young Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester.
The Cubs also added Jason Heyward and Ben Zobrist this offseason, as well as re-upping Dexter Fowler's contract, giving them an absolutely stacked lineup. I knew Chicago had a good lineup, but after looking at it again, I'm astonished at the actual result. It includes: Heyward, Zobrist, Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, Fowler, Miguel Montero, and Addison Russell. This team is built to steamroll everyone else.
2. St. Louis Cardinals -- 2015 Record: 100-62; Projection: 94-68
The Cardinals were the best team in baseball last season, and they became the first team to win 100 games since the 2011 Phillies won 102. Their offseason was more about subtraction than addition, and in such a competitive NL Central division, they will be a bit worse in 2016 as compared to their unstoppable 2015 squad. It's still hard to pick against a team that has made the postseason five years in a row and 12 times since 2000, so I have them taking a Wild Card spot in the National League.
This offseason, the Cardinals did add three underrated pieces: Mike Leake, Jedd Gyorko, and Seung-hwan Oh (otherwise known as "The Final Boss" in Korea). The Cards took a hit with the losses of Jason Heyward and John Lackey to their division-rival Cubs. Their pitching staff should still be one of the best, though, as Adam Wainwright will be completely healthy, and the addition of Leake makes him their No. 4 starter, flashing the amount of depth they have there. The bullpen should be anchored by Trevor Rosenthal, Oh, and others. The Cardinals' pitching staff, as always, is great.
As for their lineup, the loss of Heyward hurts. The "oomph" in the middle of the order has to be picked up by Jhonny Peralta, who posted just a 102 OPS+ in 2015. Matt Adams also becomes completely healthy in 2016, but as a whole, the lineup may have some weaknesses. They are going to need increased production from young players like Randal Grichuk (who was great last year), Kolten Wong, and Stephen Piscotty to make up for the loss of Heyward.
Overall, the Cardinals will need to win a lot of games 4-3 or 3-2 if they want to remain competitive. Knowing the Cardinals, that will probably happen, as they find themselves in a bullfight with the Pittsburgh Pirates for second in the National League Central.
3. Pittsburgh Pirates -- 2015 Record: 98-64; Projection: 93-69
The Pirates have made the playoffs in each of the last three seasons, and it almost appears that the fans in Pittsburgh have completely forgotten the two decades of terrible to mediocre (at best) Pirates teams. The National League is very top heavy, so it may be tough for the Pirates to beat out other likely Wild Card contenders, like the Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Giants, Dodgers, Mets, or Nationals. They did win 98 games last year, and most of their team is returning in 2016, so there's no reason to believe that this year will be any sort of regression for the team, even if they do miss the playoffs.
The biggest losses for the Pirates come in the likes of J.A. Happ, Aramis Ramirez, and Neil Walker. The biggest of those three is Walker, who the Pirates traded to the Mets for Jon Niese. Projected to replace him is prospect Alen Hanson until Jung-ho Kang returns from injury. As a whole, the lineup is still centered around five-time All-Star Andrew McCutchen, but needs increased production from Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco to have any chance of catching the Cubs.
The biggest question mark for the Pirates is the rotation, which is solidified with Ryan Vogelsong and the aforementioned Niese. I'd be even more worried if the Pirates did not have Ray Searage, who is probably the best at fixing up pitchers and giving the team value in ways that other teams just don't have. The rotation, led by budding ace Gerrit Cole may have the biggest upside for the team just because of Searage. In general, the Pirates will still win 90 games, but a few things have to go their way in order for them to eclipse the 95 mark like they did last season.
4. Cincinnati Reds -- 2015 Record: 64-98; Projection: 65-97
The Reds finally began to embrace a rebuild over the summer, trading Johnny Cueto to the Royals. This narrative continued over the offseason, dealing star closer Aroldis Chapman to the Yankees and third baseman Todd Frazier to the White Sox. Perhaps the only exciting part of the 2015 Reds was the return of Joey Votto's dominance. After a 2014 where he only played in 60 games, Votto had the best OPS+ of his career (min. 500 at bats), posting an even 1.000 OPS, good for a 174 OPS+. Votto finished only behind Bryce Harper and Paul Goldschmidt in the NL MVP voting.
Besides Votto, there's not much to like about the 2016 Reds. Their biggest additions this offseason were all prospects, coming in the form of Jose Peraza, Eric Jagielo, and Rookie Davis. Cincinnati's minor league system may actually be more fun for fans to watch than their Major League club. Besides those three, Tyler Stephenson, Jesse Winkler, Cody Reed, and may others give the Reds a promising future.
The Reds could end up even worse in 2016 than projected if they decide to complete their teardown, which may mean dealing outfielder Jay Bruce and catcher Devin Mesoraco. Other than that, the 2016 Reds season is all about the development of their top prospects and the possibility that they begin to make their way up to the Majors, meaning that they will suffer in the win column.
5. Milwaukee Brewers -- 2015 Record: 68-94; Projection: 64-98
Like the Reds, the Brewers are in the midst of a rebuilding phase. They are under new leadership in the front office, hiring David Stearns to be their general manager last September. Stearns took the rebuild to heart this offseason, getting rid of any players that carried legitimate value. First baseman Adam Lind, outfielder Khris Davis, closer Francisco Rodriguez, and infielder Jean Segura are all in new homes.
Again like the Reds, the Brewers still have a couple big names on their roster, in catcher Jonathan Lucroy and outfielder Ryan Braun. Lucroy in particular would net the Brewers a large return, but it appears that the team is waiting until his value is a little higher before pulling the trigger, if they decide to do at all. I liked Stearns' additions of Chris Carter, Will Middlebrooks, Garin Cecchini, and Kirk Nieuwenhuis this offseason; they are all guys that could prove valuable for future Brewers teams or could be trade deadline pieces. All of them serve a purpose, and I don't think it's just to "eat" at bats in 2016.
As for their pitching, I'm interested in Jimmy Nelson, who had a fairly solid rookie season last year, worth 2.1 fWAR. He struggled against left-handers, but with experience, may be able to turn into a fairly solid pitcher. For Brewers fans, though, this season is all about seeing prospect growth and hoping they'll be ready to contend in 2017 or 2018.
Next up: NL West.
The offseason is here. Trades will be made. It's hard to know who exactly could be moved. From experience, I know we could see just about anyone get traded during the winter. I compiled a list of four possible trade candidates this offseason, what could make them appealing, and why they may be dealt.
The Milwaukee Brewers hired David Stearns to be their next general manager.
Who is David Stearns?
Stearns is a Harvard graduate. He's worked in baseball for awhile now, having been in the game since 2008. He's 30-years-old. He's the new general manager for the Milwaukee Brewers.
David Stearns might just be the answer to the Brewers' prayers out of mediocrity. The team hasn't made the playoffs since 2011. And with the NL Central quickly becoming Major League Baseball's hardest division thanks to the Pirates, Cardinals, and Cubs, the Brewers might not be a playoff team for awhile.
And that's where Stearns comes in.
Thispast February, ESPN had a "great analytics rankings," where they rated teams based on their usage of analytics within their sport.
The Brewers were given a "One Foot In" rating, as it was noted that they used analytics in shifting, as well as seeing the hidden value in Jonathan Lucroy's pitch framing. It also prasied them for signing Carlos Gomez and Lucroy to team friendly, long-term deals before they broke out.
Stearns will put the other foot in for the Brewers. He's coming from an Astros organization that was in the "All-In" category and is thrown up there with the Oakland Athletics as the two most analytically friendly teams in the Majors (while that is necessarily true, I don't know, but it is what it is).
But he's not just about the stats. Stearns "worked well" with the Astros' scouting department as well, giving him the well-roundedness that is needed for a general manager to be successful.
The Brewers offseason will be a fun one to watch. What will Stearns do now that he has full control of the team? He probably won't be making any fancy moves; the team is probably still a few years away from contention. But what he does could still be significant in its own way.
So to answer the initial question: Will Stearns answer the Brewers' prayers? He's well-liked around the game; he's analytically friendly, though not completely reliant on data; and he's young and probably will bring a lot of innovation to the job.
Stearns is the answer.
Using Baseball Prospectus' playoff odds, you should be able to tell who has the best chance of doing just that. Teams really should take those odds to determine whether they should be buyers and sellers because more often than not, they are right.
After games being played on July 6 last year, five of the ten eventual postseason teams had a 80 percent chance of making the playoffs or better. Every team that did have an 80 percent or greater chance of making the playoffs on this date last year did.
The team with the highest percent chance to make the playoffs on July 6 that ultimately didn't was the Milwaukee Brewers, who had a 71 percent chance to punch their ticket, but collapsed down the stretch and failed to make it.
Only three (Orioles, Royals, and Pirates) had less than a 50 percent chance of making the playoffs following action on July 6. By July 31, the Orioles were up to a 71 percent chance, the Royals were at a 17 percent chance, and the Pirates were at a 46 percent chance.
Knowing this, I will use Baseball Prospectus' current postseason predictions to determine who should buy and who should sell at the 2015 Trade Deadline.
All In (85% or greater)
St. Louis Cardinals (99.3%)
There's no reason why the Cardinals, who own MLB's best record at 54-28, should consider selling. In fact, Baseball Prospectus says that they have a 99.3 percent chance of making the playoffs, leaving just a very small chance for an extreme collapse. If the Cardinals play just .500 ball the rest of the way, that would put them on pace for 94 wins, which would definitely put them in prime position to punch their ticket to the postseason. The Cardinals have no reason to do anything but buy.
Los Angeles Dodgers (92.9%)
The Dodgers have the second-highest playoff percentage in the league, and nothing suggests that this team won't buy at the trade deadline. I predicted them to go out and get Johnny Cueto, perhaps the best pitcher available not named Cole Hamels. The Dodgers are always willing to spend money and prospects to make their team better and can easily justify doing so at the deadline.
Washington Nationals (85.6%)
The Nationals have arguably not played their best baseball yet, but still have an 85.6 percent chance to make the playoffs. They could use some reinforcements in their bullpen, but most of the additions the Nationals will be getting will be players coming back from injury, such as Jayson Werth, Ryan Zimmerman, and Stephen Strasburg. They may not need to make a ton of moves in July, but if they do, they have good reason to do so.
Houston Astros (84.7%)
The Astros have already shown interest in some of the top pitchers that will be available, and Baseball Prospectus' playoff odds completely backs that up. Houston's playoff percentage, at 84.7 percent, is so close to 85 percent that I had to shove them into this category. The Astros have showed that while they are a bit of a surprise, they still can win ballgames and do it over a period of time. The Astros by no means are "pretenders," as they have been able to hold a comfortable AL West lead since late April.
Should be buyers (70-85%)
Pittsburgh Pirates (81.3%), Chicago Cubs (73.1%)
The Pirates and Cubs have a case of some serious bad luck. They are playing in the National League's toughest division and would be either leading or close to leading any other division in the league. The only reason I'm wary of either of these teams buying at the deadline is because they are not division leaders and have more of a chance to collapse and fall out of the playoff race altogether. Unless they believe they have a real shot at the Cardinals (which it appears they don't), they shouldn't completely unload their farm systems to go out and get the best guy on the market.
Kansas City Royals (75.3%)
Of the three teams in this category, I am most comfortable with the Royals buying at the trade deadline due to the fact that they lead their division by a comfortable margin and need just one or two pieces to really put the pressure on the rest of the division. All signs point to the Royals making the playoffs again this year, so I would go ahead and pencil them in as buyers at the deadline.
Los Angeles Angels (64.8%)
The Angels are in a good position right now. They are playing good baseball and have shown the need for an upgrade in left field. Of the teams listed in this section, I truly believe they are the best and most complete team, so therefore they should be buyers at the deadline. The Angels could use some rotation help as well, but if they patch up a few spots, they will get into the postseason. My verdict? They should be buyers.
AL East: New York Yankees (59.4%), Toronto Blue Jays (39.6%), Tampa Bay Rays (34.9%)
The American League East division is lumped together because the division is so muddled and close that really anyone could win it. Baseball Prospectus' simulations give the Yankees the best chance to go to the playoffs out of that division, but with some rotation help, the Blue Jays are the division's best team. The Yankees and Rays should stand pat or make small moves at the deadline, while the Blue Jays should go out and make a splash for a rotation piece.
Detroit Tigers (36.7%)
With Miguel Cabrera being sidelined with his hamstring injury, I'm going to pencil the Tigers in as should be sellers, but as this team continues to try and make a run once again, they will find themselves trying to buy. The Tigers are heading towards a Phillies-esque fall, and if they don't realize that soon, it could only get worse if they decide to buy at the trade deadline in hopes for one last run at the World Series.
Maybe/Stand Pat (20-30%)
New York Mets (28.9%)
Even if the Mets added an offensive piece, I don't think that would be enough to get them to the playoffs this season. With that said, however, I could see them dealing for a guy with more than one season of control, as their young and talented pitching staff comes into their own. The Mets couldn't justify buying for a rental player, but a guy who is at least signed through 2016 could make sense.
Baltimore Orioles (28.7%)
The Baltimore Orioles have a ton of free agents at the end of the season that they probably should move. The Orioles could be one of those teams that tries to get 25-man roster guys with more years of team control in return. The Orioles could be a team that buys and sells at the trade deadline, and I would be fine with that.
San Francisco Giants (22.9%)
It's an odd year. The Giants aren't good enough to win the NL West, and considering that they have to deal with the Cubs and Pirates for the Wild Card, it will be tough for them to really make a run into the postseason. However, they still have a good core group of guys and the team has proved me wrong before. They probably should stand pat.
Shouldn't buy (Less than 20%)
Minnesota Twins (18.2%)
The Twins just aren't that good. Sure, they had a good run earlier this season, but all the numbers suggest that they were going to fall out of first in the AL Central. The Twins should really try and go for 2016, when some of their rookies will be more polished.
Texas Rangers (15.0%)
While the Rangers shouldn't buy, they probably will, as I consider them to be in a similar boat as the Tigers are in. The Rangers could legitimately contend, but they would more than a couple of upgrades, to the point where they probably shouldn't go for it this season.
Cleveland Indians (13.5%)
The Indians were a popular postseason pick prior to this season, but Baseball Prospectus' simulations show that they would need some serious luck to actually get there. The Indians shouldn't sell any pieces other than the impending free agents because my gut says that they will be back in the postseason sooner than later.
Boston Red Sox (11.8%)
The Red Sox are in a tough position right now. It might not be time for a fire sale quite yet, but it's definitely not time to go out and try and contend this season.
Seattle Mariners (7.0%)
The Mariners have had some issues staying in the race this season, and while they shouldn't sell off their entire team, they really shouldn't be buyers either.
Oakland Athletics (6.8%)
The Athletics are already shopping their pieces and it looks like they will be sellers.
Arizona Diamondbacks (6.4%)
The Diamondbacks are a team that should stand pat. They still have pieces to contend in the near future and as their pitching improves with guys coming back from injury, they could be a legitimate contender coming 2016.
Atlanta Braves (3.8%)
The Braves, especially in the offseason, have committed to becoming a selling team. They don't have any exciting pieces, but even though they have kind of surprised, they should by no means buy.
Chicago White Sox (3.2%)
The White Sox are in a tough position. They reportedly won't have a fire sale, which makes sense considering how much money they spent in free agency, but they need to get rid of Jeff Samardzija and still be planning to try again in 2016.
San Diego Padres (2.7%)
The Padres could buy at the deadline, but in all reality, they shouldn't. They've got some important games coming up that they need to win if people start seriously seeing them as contenders. Once again, they are proving that the winners of the offseason don't necessarily win during the season.
Miami Marlins (1.6%)
The Marlins shouldn't go into a fire sale, but Mat Latos, Dan Haren, Brad Hand, and other free agents at the end of the season should be gone.
Cincinnati Reds (1.1%)
The Reds have Johnny Cueto, Mike Leake, and possibly Aroldis Chapman available, and while they won't sell until after they host the All-Star Game, I expect it to come, as it should.
Colorado Rockies (0.2%)
I'd pull the trigger and deal Troy Tulowitzki. It's time for a real change in Colorado if they want to be relevant down the road.
Milwaukee Brewers (0.2%)
The Brewers should enter into a fire sale.
Philadelphia Phillies (0.0%)
Now, these rankings and categories don't mean that each of these teams will do as I advise. Their postseason percentages could change and perhaps an addition is all they need to do that. However, Baseball Prospectus' odds are very accurate and should not be taken lightly. Teams really should use them to determine whether they could justify buying at the deadline.