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Fielder for Kinsler Analysis (podcast)

11/23/2013

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Third Cover The Bases Podcast

11/19/2013

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Five things to take away from the 2013 MLB season

11/11/2013

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The 2013 MLB season is long since over, but it's never too late to reflect on the season. Let's take a look at the five things to take away from the 2013 MLB season.

5. The no-hitters, and near no-hitters.

Three pitchers threw no-hitters in 2013. Three pitchers lost no-hitters in the ninth inning in 2013.

April 2 -- Yu Darvish came one out away from a no-hitter against the Astros, but Marwin Gonzalez had other plans. A clean single ruined the bid for a no-hitter, but the gem by Darvish was only the beginning of his fantastic season. TEX 7, HOU 0

May 24 -- Anibal Sanchez had thrown 8.1 of no-hit ball, but then Joe Mauer stepped to the plate. Mauer delivered a one-out single to center, and Sanchez was left without a no-no. DET 6, MIN 0

July 2 -- Homer Bailey finally found the first no-hitter of 2013, shutting down the San Francisco Giants in Great American Ballpark. The second no-hitter of Bailey's career, and the first of 2013 was something that you should definitely go back and watch. CIN 3, SFG 0

July 13 -- Petco Park being home the only team without a no-hitter, the Padres, got it's first no-hitter on July 13, 2013. It came against the Padres, rather than for them. Tim Lincecum wanted in on the fun after being at Homer Bailey no-no. Eleven days later, Lincecum dazzled, and threw a no-hitter against the San Diego Padres. SFG 9, SDP 0

September 6 -- The Giants were looking to get their second no-hitter of the season, this time behind Yusmeiro Petit. With two outs in the ninth, Arizona's Eric Chavez delivered a single to right field. SFG 3, ARZ 0

September 29 -- Henderson Alvarez (MIA), on the last day of the season, pitched nine no-hit innings. The score, however, was tied at 0. Standing in the on deck circle, Alvarez saw his team walk-off on a wild pitch, and finish off the job well done. What an experience for the pitcher. MIA 1, DET 0

4. The Suprise Playoff Teams

Cleveland Indians -- The Indians played very consistent baseball throughout this entire season, and in September, Terry Francona took it up a notch. Going 21-6 in the month of September, the Indians great run jolted them into the AL Wild Card game. The run ended there as they got shutout to the Rays, 4-0.

Pittsburgh Pirates -- They finally did it. The Pirates, for the first time since 1992, took home the NL Wild Card. After wiping the Reds off their feet in that game, Pittbsurgh was almost not done there. They lost a 2-1 lead in the NLDS to the St. Louis Cardinals.

Los Angeles Dodgers -- This one is a little bit more of a stretch. But who thought that the Dodgers would still make the playoffs in May? They were 23-30, and were not in good position to make any runs deep into October. How about June? They then were 38-43, improving, but not much better. Who could've predicted their fantastic run?

3. Miguel Cabrera and Chris Davis

These two hitters tore up the American League throughout the summer this season. In the first half, the two combined for 58 homers and 161 RBI. Cabrera finished with 44 HR, while Davis finished with 53 shots. Just before the all star break, they were trading homers like no tomorrow. Cabrera slowed down in the second half due to injury, but they definitely were something we should take away from this season.

Cabrera: .348/.442/.636, 44 HR, 137 RBI

Davis: .286/.370/.634, 53 HR, 138 RBI

2. Young Pitching (Specifically Michael Wacha and Jose Fernandez)

Young pitchers were unbelievable in 2013, but the two most outstanding were Jose Fernandez and Michael Wacha. Fernandez, only 20, never pitched above AA coming into this season. But appearing in the majors for the first time, Fernandez pitched great. Michael Wacha, the story of the playoffs, was an x-factor for the Cardinals, pitching gem after gem. It will be fun to see them improve as they get older.

Fernandez: 12-6, 2.19 ERA, 0.97 WHIP

Wacha: 4-1, 2.78 ERA, 1.10 WHIP

1. The Red Sox win the World Series

How could this not be number one? The Red Sox took a last place team, made some adjustments, and came out on top by winning the 2013 World Series. Amazing play around the team, their run was a spectacular one to say the least. Doing the little things proves to make a large difference, and the Red Sox definitely showed that. I enjoyed watching them play this season and I am looming forward to watching them play in 2014.

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Why Dioner Navarro is the most underrated catcher in the 2013 Free Agent class

11/10/2013

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Navarro's value is much more than what he will cost. (Photo Courtesy: www.boyofspring.com)
Yesterday, on Twitter, I said that I though Dioner Navarro would be the most underrated catcher on the 2013 Free Agent market. Today, I would like to strengthen my position on that, and explain why Navarro will be the best catcher for your buck this 2013 free agent market. 

Navarro was signed as a free agent from Venezuela in 2000 at age 16 with the New York Yankees. Making the big leagues at age 20, Navarro (30 in 2014), already has been in the big leagues for 10 years, providing excellent defense at the catcher position. It took a while before the offense came, but in 2013, the Cubs catcher delivered a great year, hitting .300/.365/.492 with 13 home runs and 34 RBI in 89 games. Although Navarro was not the top catcher in the Cubs fold, he was definitely more productive. According to www.baseballplayersalaries.com, Navarro provided 8% of the Cubs on-field performance, and only was 1.99% of the teams payroll. His cost vs. performance score was a 3.9, and was more valuable to the Cubs than Jeff Samardzija. 

I compared Dioner Navarro to Jarrod Saltalamacchia on www.baseballplayersalaries.com as well to try to see who was more valuable to their team based on their salary. Although the Cubs were not as good as the Red Sox, Navarro contributed to 8% of his teams performance, and was only 1.99% of the Cubs salary, and Saltalamacchia contributed to 5.27% of his team's performance and was 2.66% of the Red Sox salary. Navarro produced more than Saltalamacchia, and costed less. Navarro could be a real diamond in the rough. He plays well, but hasn't had much experience taking the bulk of the catching work. Navarro has only played in 100+ games three times in his career, hitting .249/.301/.364 in those seasons. It could be interesting to see him get the load of the job for any team. That could be his only concern for teams. 

Defensively, Navarro is as good as anyone. He has never had below a .981 fielding percentage, made more than 14 errors, and only 71% of base runners have been able to steal on him. Navarro has zero issues defensively, and would be an upgrade for any team in need of a better defensive catcher. 

Who could acquire Navarro? I think the Philadelphia Phillies are a good match for Navarro, because if he does not prove to be an every day catcher, he could platoon with Erik Kratz, a catcher with a lot of pop. He also bats switch-handed, and the Phillies need more right handed bats in their lineup versus left handed pitchers. Navarro has a career .275 BA against lefties, much better than his .242 mark against right handers. How much does he cost? The most Navarro ever made as a major-leaguer was $2.1 million, completely underpaid for how much of the team's performance he took apart in. Imagine this, if a team has a $100 million payroll, and Navarro is producing 8% of the team's performance, he should make $8 million. Is Navarro truly $6 million underpaid? Perhaps. That's why I think he could be a really nice option for whoever signs him this offseason. 


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Top 15 free agents with predictions

11/6/2013

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The 2014 Free Agent market opens tomorrow! While we have one last chance to take a look at the market before teams can start negotiations, I will be ranking the top 15 free agents and giving them predictions for where they will go. This market is quite pitcher heavy, as teams looking for pitchers will have plenty of options to bolster their staffs. 

1. Robinson Cano -- Yankees 
It's been noted across the baseball world that the Yankees are going to prepare for life without Cano by planning to offer Omar Infante a contract. I just can't see any other team being able to swoop in and strike a deal with Cano! He was quoted wanting over $300 million and ten years on his next contract. He probably won't get that type of deal, but if he gets anything close, it's probably going to be with the Yankees.

2. Jacoby Ellsbury -- Phillies
The Phillies know they have made large mistakes with outfielders before, and I think Ruben Amaro Jr. is pretty much sitting on the hot seat. A new TV deal could be reached soon, and they could be in the elite payroll category with teams like the Dodgers and Yankees. The Phillies however, are lefty heavy, and could really use a few right-handed bats in their lineup. Ellsbury, however, really hasn't had trouble with lefty pitchers in the past, posting a .295 batting average. With or without the TV deal, I think the Phillies are going to go "all-out" for Ellsbury, but they will have to outbid other teams such as the Red Sox and Rangers. 

3. Shin-Soo Choo -- Mets
Shin-Soo Choo is quite a player, and it was noted that the Mets have had some "significant" interest in the outfielder. Choo should be able to reach a multi-year deal with the Mets, who had truly needed a leadoff hitter. They finished 29th in OPS from leadoff hitters, and Choo was a great leadoff hitter for the Mets, posting an .885 OPS, 277 points above the the Mets .608 mark. Choo could really fix the Mets problem from the leadoff spot, and could help bolster their outfield, although his defense really isn't that great. 

4. Brian McCann -- Rangers 
With A.J. Pierzynski becoming a free agent, the Rangers could be in the market for McCann, who really could solidify their catching problems with an four or five year deal. McCann, 30, has been one of the Braves best hitters over the past few years, and could really help the Rangers. A seven-time all star, McCann will be a hot catching topic on the market who can really solidify any lineup. 

5. Matt Garza -- Mariners 
While Garza has had plenty of injury concerns with his shoulder, I believe the Mariners have money to spend, and are looking for a starting pitcher. Garza had a 3.82 ERA in 24 starts this season. But, a completely heathy season for Garza can prove huge to a team on the cusp of making the playoffs. The Mariners are an improving team with a somewhat experienced pitching staff. Garza could bolster this staff, and prove to be large for the Mariners in 2014. 

6. Ervin Santana -- Royals 
I really believe the Royals will try and retain their ace from 2013. A 3.24 ERA in '13, Santana's breakout season could prove large for his next contract. But, being mostly inconsistent in the past could hurt his stock, due to the fact that he is going to cost a draft pick from any other team that signs him, except the Royals. All those reasons to me point towards a Royal homecoming for Santana. 

7. Mike Napoli -- Red Sox
With all their money, I think the Red Sox won't miss on re-signing Napoli. The 31 year old proved large for the Red Sox throughout the season and postseason, as his 23 HR and 91 RBI played a large role in helping the Red Sox through their season. Expect Napoli to continue to play first base in Boston. 

8. Ubaldo Jimenez -- Blue Jays 
Over Ubaldo's career, he went from one of the best pitchers in the Major Leagues to one of the worst. But, a rebounding season in 2013 really boosted his free agent stock, posting a 3.30 ERA over a great season in Cleveland. In the second half of the season, he posted a 1.82 ERA in 13 starts. He'll likely sit near the top of a rotation with R.A. Dickey and Mark Buehrle. The Blue Jays are still trying to make a run with that team they assembled from the 2012 Marlins, and will look to add to it to make a run in the AL East. 

9. A.J. Burnett -- Pirates 
It's been said before, Burnett is going to re-sign with the Pirates or retire. Leading a Pittsburgh staff at the age of 36, Burnett posted a 3.30 ERA in 30 starts. He proved durable, and was able to win big games for Pittsburgh. Expect him to re-sign, but do not expect him to have the top spot in the rotation, as Francisco Liriano was outstanding last season, as he finished the season at 29 years old. Expect Burnett to re-sign to a one-year deal. 

10. Carlos Beltran -- Yankees 
As MLBTR pointed out, Beltran has showed interest in the Yankees for the past decade, and he probably wants to play DH in the AL, so expect him to sign there. I agree with MLBTR, and I think he will finally go to the Yankees to play DH. They have the money there, and they have everything he wants. Maybe he can even make a couple more playoff runs while his career fades? 

11. Curtis Granderson -- Cubs
The Cubs have had a lot of questions in their outfielders, as Alfonso Soriano and David DeJesus played the most games in left and center field, respectively. To close up that center field gap, the Cubs could sign Curtis Granderson, who has played very well in his 10 years in the big leagues. He had injury concerns last year with the Yankees, but I think he can get over those and play well for Chicago in 2014. 

12. Stephen Drew -- Cardinals
The Cardinals have Pete Kozma currently at shortstop, a light-hitting player who's defense isn't the best. Drew, who's 2013 average was 36 points higher than Kozma's, and defense just as good, if not better, looks to be a very nice option for the Cardinals if they would like to make a personnel switch at the shortstop position. He will be 31 in 2014, and could have a lot of interest on the market this winter due to his fantastic season and postseason. The Red Sox probably won't retain him, and give youngster Xander Bogaerts a shot a short. 

13. Hiroki Kuroda -- Yankees 
Kuroda has few options, to either stay with the Yankees, go back to California, or go back to playing baseball in Japan. I think he stays with the Yankees on a short-term deal, and retires at the end of the 2014 season. He pitched well in 2013, but I do not think he wants to go to another team, especially since he's comfortable with New York, and he's nearing the end of his line. 

14. Joe Nathan -- Tigers
The Rangers seem to be letting their closer walk, and so do the Tigers with Joaquin Benoit. It only makes sense that they sign Nathan, right? Since becoming a closer in 2004, Nathan has been at the top of his game, posting a 2.14 ERA with 340 saves in that time. He's been reliable, but he is getting older (Nathan is 39 in 2014). Expect him to sign to a one or two year deal with the Tigers.   

15. Nelson Cruz -- Royals
Many people think Cruz should go to Philadelphia, but he reminds me of Delmon Young, a failed experiment who had little contact, some power, and was horrible defensively. Stay in the AL, Cruz, and sign with the Royals. 

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