A stellar rotation or a stellar bullpen. Choose one and you'll likely find the key to postseason success.
The ability to shorten games is how teams win in the postseason. Just take a look at our two World Series-bound teams. The Royals have long been known as a team with a great bullpen, thanks to Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis, Greg Holland (until he got injured), and Ryan Madson. The trio of Herrera, Davis, and Madson did not post an ERA above 2.71 this season. The Mets, on the other hand, might not have as strong of a bullpen as Kansas City, but they more than make up for it in their rotation. The Mets rode Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz and Bartolo Colon to where they are today. What's the common theme between these two teams? The ability to shorten games. The Royals get that ability at the end of games, where they only need six or seven solid innings from their starter in order to win. Kansas City has gone 157-4 when leading after seven innings, including postseason, according to STATS LLC. Being able to have the confidence in a bullpen to completely shut down the opposing team when the game is at its highest leverage has allowed the Royals to get back to the World Series in back-to-back years. For the Mets, it's almost the complete opposite. They were able to use their scary starting rotation to limit the amount of innings they needed from their bullpen. This meant that they could get closer to their closer and by far best reliever, Jeurys Familia faster. In Games 1-3 in the NLCS against the Cubs combined, the Mets only used four relief pitchers that were not named Jeurys. In Game 1, they used this strategy to almost perfect execution, getting 7 2/3 masterful innings from Matt Harvey. They then immediately turned it over to Familia, who shut the door on the Cubs for a four-out save. In Game 3, something similar happened. Jacob deGrom went seven strong. Following three outs from Tyler Clippard, the Mets turned the ball back to Familia, who recorded the save once again. So, you don't need to have an amazing bullpen from top to bottom to win playoff series. What you need to have, however, is a way to shut the door on teams, whether that be early in the game or late in the game. That's what is going to make this 2015 World Series so fun. See you on Tuesday. --Devan Fink
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Using Baseball Prospectus' playoff odds, you should be able to tell who has the best chance of doing just that. Teams really should take those odds to determine whether they should be buyers and sellers because more often than not, they are right.
After games being played on July 6 last year, five of the ten eventual postseason teams had a 80 percent chance of making the playoffs or better. Every team that did have an 80 percent or greater chance of making the playoffs on this date last year did. The team with the highest percent chance to make the playoffs on July 6 that ultimately didn't was the Milwaukee Brewers, who had a 71 percent chance to punch their ticket, but collapsed down the stretch and failed to make it. Only three (Orioles, Royals, and Pirates) had less than a 50 percent chance of making the playoffs following action on July 6. By July 31, the Orioles were up to a 71 percent chance, the Royals were at a 17 percent chance, and the Pirates were at a 46 percent chance. Knowing this, I will use Baseball Prospectus' current postseason predictions to determine who should buy and who should sell at the 2015 Trade Deadline. All In (85% or greater)
St. Louis Cardinals (99.3%)
There's no reason why the Cardinals, who own MLB's best record at 54-28, should consider selling. In fact, Baseball Prospectus says that they have a 99.3 percent chance of making the playoffs, leaving just a very small chance for an extreme collapse. If the Cardinals play just .500 ball the rest of the way, that would put them on pace for 94 wins, which would definitely put them in prime position to punch their ticket to the postseason. The Cardinals have no reason to do anything but buy. Los Angeles Dodgers (92.9%) The Dodgers have the second-highest playoff percentage in the league, and nothing suggests that this team won't buy at the trade deadline. I predicted them to go out and get Johnny Cueto, perhaps the best pitcher available not named Cole Hamels. The Dodgers are always willing to spend money and prospects to make their team better and can easily justify doing so at the deadline. Washington Nationals (85.6%) The Nationals have arguably not played their best baseball yet, but still have an 85.6 percent chance to make the playoffs. They could use some reinforcements in their bullpen, but most of the additions the Nationals will be getting will be players coming back from injury, such as Jayson Werth, Ryan Zimmerman, and Stephen Strasburg. They may not need to make a ton of moves in July, but if they do, they have good reason to do so. Houston Astros (84.7%) The Astros have already shown interest in some of the top pitchers that will be available, and Baseball Prospectus' playoff odds completely backs that up. Houston's playoff percentage, at 84.7 percent, is so close to 85 percent that I had to shove them into this category. The Astros have showed that while they are a bit of a surprise, they still can win ballgames and do it over a period of time. The Astros by no means are "pretenders," as they have been able to hold a comfortable AL West lead since late April. Should be buyers (70-85%)
Pittsburgh Pirates (81.3%), Chicago Cubs (73.1%)
The Pirates and Cubs have a case of some serious bad luck. They are playing in the National League's toughest division and would be either leading or close to leading any other division in the league. The only reason I'm wary of either of these teams buying at the deadline is because they are not division leaders and have more of a chance to collapse and fall out of the playoff race altogether. Unless they believe they have a real shot at the Cardinals (which it appears they don't), they shouldn't completely unload their farm systems to go out and get the best guy on the market. Kansas City Royals (75.3%) Of the three teams in this category, I am most comfortable with the Royals buying at the trade deadline due to the fact that they lead their division by a comfortable margin and need just one or two pieces to really put the pressure on the rest of the division. All signs point to the Royals making the playoffs again this year, so I would go ahead and pencil them in as buyers at the deadline. Justifiable (30-70%)
Los Angeles Angels (64.8%)
The Angels are in a good position right now. They are playing good baseball and have shown the need for an upgrade in left field. Of the teams listed in this section, I truly believe they are the best and most complete team, so therefore they should be buyers at the deadline. The Angels could use some rotation help as well, but if they patch up a few spots, they will get into the postseason. My verdict? They should be buyers. AL East: New York Yankees (59.4%), Toronto Blue Jays (39.6%), Tampa Bay Rays (34.9%) The American League East division is lumped together because the division is so muddled and close that really anyone could win it. Baseball Prospectus' simulations give the Yankees the best chance to go to the playoffs out of that division, but with some rotation help, the Blue Jays are the division's best team. The Yankees and Rays should stand pat or make small moves at the deadline, while the Blue Jays should go out and make a splash for a rotation piece. Detroit Tigers (36.7%) With Miguel Cabrera being sidelined with his hamstring injury, I'm going to pencil the Tigers in as should be sellers, but as this team continues to try and make a run once again, they will find themselves trying to buy. The Tigers are heading towards a Phillies-esque fall, and if they don't realize that soon, it could only get worse if they decide to buy at the trade deadline in hopes for one last run at the World Series. Maybe/Stand Pat (20-30%)
New York Mets (28.9%)
Even if the Mets added an offensive piece, I don't think that would be enough to get them to the playoffs this season. With that said, however, I could see them dealing for a guy with more than one season of control, as their young and talented pitching staff comes into their own. The Mets couldn't justify buying for a rental player, but a guy who is at least signed through 2016 could make sense. Baltimore Orioles (28.7%) The Baltimore Orioles have a ton of free agents at the end of the season that they probably should move. The Orioles could be one of those teams that tries to get 25-man roster guys with more years of team control in return. The Orioles could be a team that buys and sells at the trade deadline, and I would be fine with that. San Francisco Giants (22.9%) It's an odd year. The Giants aren't good enough to win the NL West, and considering that they have to deal with the Cubs and Pirates for the Wild Card, it will be tough for them to really make a run into the postseason. However, they still have a good core group of guys and the team has proved me wrong before. They probably should stand pat. Shouldn't buy (Less than 20%)
Minnesota Twins (18.2%)
The Twins just aren't that good. Sure, they had a good run earlier this season, but all the numbers suggest that they were going to fall out of first in the AL Central. The Twins should really try and go for 2016, when some of their rookies will be more polished. Texas Rangers (15.0%) While the Rangers shouldn't buy, they probably will, as I consider them to be in a similar boat as the Tigers are in. The Rangers could legitimately contend, but they would more than a couple of upgrades, to the point where they probably shouldn't go for it this season. Cleveland Indians (13.5%) The Indians were a popular postseason pick prior to this season, but Baseball Prospectus' simulations show that they would need some serious luck to actually get there. The Indians shouldn't sell any pieces other than the impending free agents because my gut says that they will be back in the postseason sooner than later. Boston Red Sox (11.8%) The Red Sox are in a tough position right now. It might not be time for a fire sale quite yet, but it's definitely not time to go out and try and contend this season. Seattle Mariners (7.0%) The Mariners have had some issues staying in the race this season, and while they shouldn't sell off their entire team, they really shouldn't be buyers either. Oakland Athletics (6.8%) The Athletics are already shopping their pieces and it looks like they will be sellers. Arizona Diamondbacks (6.4%) The Diamondbacks are a team that should stand pat. They still have pieces to contend in the near future and as their pitching improves with guys coming back from injury, they could be a legitimate contender coming 2016. Atlanta Braves (3.8%) The Braves, especially in the offseason, have committed to becoming a selling team. They don't have any exciting pieces, but even though they have kind of surprised, they should by no means buy. Chicago White Sox (3.2%) The White Sox are in a tough position. They reportedly won't have a fire sale, which makes sense considering how much money they spent in free agency, but they need to get rid of Jeff Samardzija and still be planning to try again in 2016. San Diego Padres (2.7%) The Padres could buy at the deadline, but in all reality, they shouldn't. They've got some important games coming up that they need to win if people start seriously seeing them as contenders. Once again, they are proving that the winners of the offseason don't necessarily win during the season. Miami Marlins (1.6%) The Marlins shouldn't go into a fire sale, but Mat Latos, Dan Haren, Brad Hand, and other free agents at the end of the season should be gone. Cincinnati Reds (1.1%) The Reds have Johnny Cueto, Mike Leake, and possibly Aroldis Chapman available, and while they won't sell until after they host the All-Star Game, I expect it to come, as it should. Colorado Rockies (0.2%) I'd pull the trigger and deal Troy Tulowitzki. It's time for a real change in Colorado if they want to be relevant down the road. Milwaukee Brewers (0.2%) The Brewers should enter into a fire sale. Philadelphia Phillies (0.0%) Sellers. Now, these rankings and categories don't mean that each of these teams will do as I advise. Their postseason percentages could change and perhaps an addition is all they need to do that. However, Baseball Prospectus' odds are very accurate and should not be taken lightly. Teams really should use them to determine whether they could justify buying at the deadline. --Devan Fink Over the past five days or so, many teams have been focused on locking up their players with little service time, in hopes that they would buy out their pre-arbitration and arbitration seasons, while also gaining control of some of their free agent years.
Rick Porcello, Josh Harrison, Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, and Yordano Ventura were recently extended by their respective teams. Here are my thoughts on each deal. The Red Sox overpaid Rick Porcello Since 2007, there have been 52 years of contract extensions given out to 14 starting pitchers between five and six years of MLB service time, worth $826.1 million. That's an average of a 3.7 year deal for $15.89 million per year, which would buy out two free agent years. Porcello got a four-year, $82.5 million deal from the Red Sox, which would come out to a $20.625 million annual average value. Porcello is not worth $20.625 million per season. If he made that figure this year, he would be the 23rd-highest paid player in the Majors, ahead of Adam Wainwright, Jon Lester, David Price, and Max Scherzer. I rest my case. Josh Harrison still hasn't proved himself...though that doesn't mean that deal with Pirates is spoiled The Pirates signed Harrison to a four-year, $27.3 million deal. Harrison still hasn't proved to me that he can be a viable option in the lineup at the same level as he did in 2014. Regardless, this doesn't mean that he signed a bad deal. If and only if Harrison hits well again does this deal become a real steal for Pittsburgh. Harrison makes at most $10.25 million before becoming a free agent barring options. If he continued to play at the same level he did last season, he would easily make more than that as a third-year arbitration player. It all depends on how he continues to play. Corey Kluber's deal is fantastic for both sides Corey Kluber had pitched in 15 career big league games coming into the 2013 season, boasting a 5.35 ERA. Coming into that 2013 season, Kluber was a 27-year-old, practically career minor leaguer, pitcher with not many expectations. Since, he has captured an AL Cy Young award and has established himself amongst the best in the business. I personally like Kluber's deal for both sides, due to the fact that it is only guaranteed $38.5 million, but with escalators can go to $77 million. It's great security for him, especially since he's only had a good couple of years (even though he appears here to stay dominant), but could also be a very good deal compensation-wise, especially if the escalators are met. This deal is good for Cleveland as well; they're locking up one of the best pitchers in baseball for years to come. The Indians took a calculated risk with Carlos Carrasco Like his rotation counterpart, Carrasco is a late-bloomer, not really taking shape as a solid pitcher until the last 10 starts of last season. Granted, he went 5-3 with a 1.30 ERA and a 78 to 11 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 69 2/3 innings. Carrasco's career has had a ton of ups and downs, including a designation for assignment in 2013. With a four-year, $22 million pact, obviously the Indians hope that Carrasco is the one that looked brilliant at the end of last year. If he does continue his successes, this deal will be considered a huge win for them. If he doesn't, the Indians will just have to eat the cash, which never exceeds $8 million per season. Carrasco's deal only buys out his arbitration years with options to control his free agent years. It's a good sum for a pitcher who had a career 5.29 ERA coming into 2015, but could also be a good deal for a team looking to stay in contention for many years to come. Yordano Ventura's deal is an absolute steal for the Royals The Kansas City Royals locked up one of the best young pitchers in baseball for all of his pre-arbitration and arbitration years, none for an overly extravagant price. With his new five-year, $23 million pact, Ventura makes just $9.95 million as a projected third-year arbitration player, when he could continue to make much more than that if he continues to improve. Ventura will make a guaranteed figure just over what Carlos Carrasco made. I'm sure most of you would agree; I'd rather have Ventura on my squad than Carrasco. (If I could only have one, of course.) Sure, Ventura gets some security if 2014 somehow is a fluke, but overall this looks like a huge win for Kansas City. --Devan Fink If everything goes right, we could see the Miami Marlins in the 2015 MLB Playoffs.
That's right. The Miami Marlins. In the playoffs. For the first time since winning the World Series in 2003. Folks, it could and very well might happen. The Marlins might just have one of the deepest, and most well-rounded, rosters in the National League. In the outfield you are looking at Giancarlo Stanton, masher of baseballs (NL leading 37 homers in 2014); Christian Yelich, a Gold Glover with a .362 on-base percentage (14th in NL); and Marcell Ozuna, who had a not too shabby .772 OPS last season. That is arguably the best outfield in baseball. In the infield, the Marlins don't have any flashy players, but they have a lot of depth. Jarrod Saltalamacchia handles the catching. Around the horn, Mike Morse is out at first, Dee Gordon is at second, Martin Prado plays third, and Adeiny Hechavarria mans shortstop. The Marlins have an underrated lineup that if it produces could be dangerous against anyone. The Marlins' rotation is solid too. They have a great top two starters in Jose Fernandez and Mat Latos. Henderson Alvarez, Jarred Cosart, and Dan Haren round out a rotation that has some young guns (Fernandez, Alvarez, and Cosart) with some veteran presence (Haren and Latos). The Marlins rotation is a good one all the way across the board and could be much better than most people think. The 2014 Royals surprised us all by making the postseason for the first time since 1983. How did they do it? With balance all around the roster. They did not have many flashy players in the infield (Salvador Perez, Eric Hosmer, Omar Infante, Mike Moustakas, and Alcides Escobar) and had one star in the outfield (Alex Gordon), along with two other solid outfielders (Lorenzo Cain and Nori Aoki). I see a real similarity between the two teams, considering that they are balanced all across the board. On the staff, the Royals boasted James Shields, Jeremy Guthrie, Jason Vargas, Yordano Ventura, and Danny Duffy. Just like the Marlins, they had a good mix of veterans and young guns. The resemblances between the two teams, at least to me, are very scary. FanGraphs projects that the Marlins will go 81-81 in 2015, posting a -4 run differential. I could see that being a modest projection for a team that could win in the 87-90 games range. The Marlins do have the best team in baseball in their division, which could cost them a few games. However, this team is built on balance and depth, and with some good performance, they could be a real surprise this upcoming season. The Marlins in the playoffs? Start believing it. --Devan Fink James Shields is the third of the "big three" starting pitchers (Max Scherzer, Jon Lester) to be a free agent this offseason. Shields, off of a World Series appearances with the Royals, might just be the most affordable of the big three due to his age. That doesn't mean that he won't be inexpensive by any means.
The 32-year-old Shields was drafted in the 16th round of the 2002 MLB Draft by the then-Tampa Bay Devil Rays. He worked his way through the minors nicely, breaking out especially in 2005. Shields came up to the Rays in 2006 and worked his first 152 games (151 starts) over the next five years. He was an average pitcher -- above average at best -- working his way to a 4.25 ERA in 977 2/3 innings pitched. His 2011 season changed his entire career. Shields went 16-12 with a 2.82 ERA and a 134 ERA+, also averaging 3.46 strikeouts per walk in 249 1/3 innings. He led the American League with an astounding 11 complete games and 4 shutouts. He was shipped to Kansas City in 2012 in the deal that moved Wil Myers to Tampa. Since, he's been with the Royals. This past season, Shields went 14-8 with a 3.21 ERA and a 124 ERA+, averaging 4.09 strikeouts per walk over his 227 innings pitched. He was a 3.7 fWAR player this past year. The Royals decided to offer Shields a one-year, $15.3 million qualifying offer, but he has yet to make a decision. Shields just isn't as good as Lester or Scherzer. Those are the facts. He's also older, which means that his contract won't be as extravagant, nor for as many years. Currently interested, as previously reported, in Shields are the Yankees, Red Sox, and Cubs (obvious ones), but also the Blue Jays, Orioles, and Marlins. It's hard to gauge the interest of the latter three teams right now, but I have to assume they're in due to a smaller contract size. Shields is a really good pitcher, but this postseason he didn't help his stock in pitching well down the stretch. Lester posted an ERA around 2.6 in close to his last 30 postseason innings and Scherzer has an ERA around 3.6 over his last 30 postseason innings. Shields has a 7.20 ERA over his last 30 postseason innings. This has to be taken into consideration for teams wanting to sign him, for sure. This contract is a tough one to peg for me, but I really believe that the Cubs are going all in this offseason. Whether this means they are going to sign Lester, Shields, or both, I do not know, and I probably won't be able to tell you until both of them sign. My personal opinion is that they will sign Lester, but I'm not sure about Shields. But it's really hard to peg a contract for him in general. So, I have James Shields signing with the Chicago Cubs on a five-year, $80 million contract. --Devan F. |