It's January 14 and I'm sitting here at my desk enjoying a snow day for 0.3" of snow. While that's beside the point, baseball is not too far away, and while children around my area are still getting snow days, pitchers and catchers will report in just over a month. Two of the three best free agents, Max Scherzer and James Shields, are still unsigned. Shields' market seems to be picking up ever so slightly. Perhaps an end to the sweepstakes is near. That brings me to my point. The Boston Red Sox need to sign James Shields. He is the answer to their prayers for contention, shown earlier in the offseason with the signings of Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez to multi-million dollar deals. The Sox' rotation was in shambles at that point. After signing both Sandoval and Ramirez, the Red Sox had three "viable" starting pitchers: Joe Kelly, Clay Buchholz, and Brandon Workman. After losing to the Cubs in the race for Jon Lester, the Red Sox went out and made a few moves to try to fix up their rotation issues, agreeing to terms with Justin Masterson on a one-year, $2 million deal, and acquiring Wade Miley and Rick Porcello from the Diamondbacks and Tigers, respectively. Boston's rotation does not have a true No. 1 starter in it, but it looks pretty solid across the board. Buchholz is a two-time All-Star, Porcello is coming off a career year, Kelly posted a 2.69 ERA in 2013, Masterson is another All-Star, and Miley finished second in the NL Rookie of the Year voting in 2012. However, the Red Sox' rotation can also be looked at this way: Buchholz is coming off a season with an ERA over five, Porcello was a below-average starter from 2009 to 2013, Kelly only pitched 96 average big league innings last season, Masterson was horrendous, and Miley has been only average in about 400 innings since the great rookie campaign. That's where James Shields comes in. Shields can solidify any issues that could arise with the Red Sox' rotation, and would likely push Joe Kelly to the bullpen, where he has posted better career numbers anyway. Shields would also give the Red Sox an estimated extra three wins (per fWAR), which could be the difference between 84-87 wins and 87-90 wins. According to FanGraphs, the Red Sox are projected to win the AL East, but by a slim margin, with every team, except the Orioles, projected to win 80 games. Yes, projections are just that, projections. However, they do make a point. That is, the AL East has no clear favorite. Shields could be the difference between winning the division or getting a Wild Card spot for Boston. If the Red Sox are truly set on contending next year, signing James Shields should be a no-brainer for them. Red Sox owner John Henry was quoted as saying that the Red Sox would be willing to "blow through" the luxury tax for one year to sign Jon Lester, so why not do the same with Shields? In terms of payroll, the Red Sox, with arbitration and pre-arbitration projections by MLBTradeRumors.com, currently have a payroll around $176.8 million. In terms of guaranteed contracts only, the Red Sox have $86.6 million guaranteed for 2016, $78.4 million for 2017, and $70.1 million for 2018. Adding on Shields at about an average of $20 million a year would put them over the luxury tax this year, but they could stay under for the years to come. As the snow continues to fall (not really), the Red Sox' front office better be heating up. One way they could they could heat up is by signing James Shields. --Devan Fink
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Free agent third baseman Pablo Sandoval appears to be closing in on signing with his next team. He reportedly will be making a decision next week. It's been an interesting ride thus far for Sandoval as three teams have emerged as the favorites in the bidding. The Giants, Red Sox, and Padres are the three main teams interested in Sandoval's services. They each have made their bids. The Red Sox reportedly had the highest bid coming into today, offering Sandoval a five-year, $95 million contract. The Padres made their offer to the third baseman today and reportedly made the "high bid" for Sandoval. The Giants' contract offer details haven't been reported, but they are still making a push for Sandoval as well, leading to what looks to be an interesting coming week. Contract negotiations for Sandoval are likely to reach over $100 million, especially if the Padres topped the Red Sox five-year, $95 million deal today. Sandoval was only a 3.0 fWAR player in 2014, and at age 28 with his weight, he may start declining within the next couple of years or so. Sandoval hit 16 homers in 2014, which was his most since 2011. I don't know if Sandoval is worth $19-$20 million per season. At the end of last offseason, Dave Cameron of FanGraphs wrote an interesting article on how much money was invested per win. He found that the average player was given about $7 million per win, while the median player was given $5.9 million per win. Based on the Red Sox' offer to Sandoval, he'd be paid about $6.3 million per win, which could be considered a steal based on the average. But Sandoval won't be improving over the next five seasons. I'm not sure if a $100 million commitment to a 28-year-old, 245 pound third baseman is the right thing to do for any of these three teams. I think that when we look back at this deal, we will see that the negatives outweigh the positives. Don't get me wrong; Sandoval is a good player. But does a "good" player deserve $20 million a year, a deal usually reserved for an absolute stud? In 2014, twenty-two players were paid $20 million or more. Cole Hamels, Zack Greinke, and Felix Hernandez were absolute studs. They all made over $20 million. Vernon Wells, Ryan Howard, and Prince Fielder also made over $20 million. Wells wasn't on a team, Fielder was injured for most of the year, and Howard was, well, Howard. When we look back at the Sandoval deal five years down the road, will we see a Jayson Werth deal or an Albert Pujols deal? I don't think either is a guarantee. When Werth signed his seven-year, $126 million deal with the Nationals, he was older than Sandoval (31), but had posted a 4.9 fWAR the season before. His contract with Washington guaranteed him an average of $18 million a year, and since signing, Werth has posted fWARs of 2.3, 0.6, 4.6, and 4.8, respectively. He is still guaranteed to be in a Nationals uniform for three more years, but he has been very good. Sandoval is in a different situation than Werth. He's three years older, but didn't produce as well in his contract year. Sandoval might be projected to regress faster than Werth, who still has shown the ability to get on base, hit, and hit for power. I am mixed on the rumored deal for Sandoval. I really think it comes down to how much a team is willing to spend over how many years. I think a five-year deal is right on the money for him, but a contract could be over $100 million, which would make him amongst the richest in the major leagues. I don't know if he is worth it. We will find out soon enough. Or in five years. Whichever comes first. --Devan F. James Shields is the third of the "big three" starting pitchers (Max Scherzer, Jon Lester) to be a free agent this offseason. Shields, off of a World Series appearances with the Royals, might just be the most affordable of the big three due to his age. That doesn't mean that he won't be inexpensive by any means.
The 32-year-old Shields was drafted in the 16th round of the 2002 MLB Draft by the then-Tampa Bay Devil Rays. He worked his way through the minors nicely, breaking out especially in 2005. Shields came up to the Rays in 2006 and worked his first 152 games (151 starts) over the next five years. He was an average pitcher -- above average at best -- working his way to a 4.25 ERA in 977 2/3 innings pitched. His 2011 season changed his entire career. Shields went 16-12 with a 2.82 ERA and a 134 ERA+, also averaging 3.46 strikeouts per walk in 249 1/3 innings. He led the American League with an astounding 11 complete games and 4 shutouts. He was shipped to Kansas City in 2012 in the deal that moved Wil Myers to Tampa. Since, he's been with the Royals. This past season, Shields went 14-8 with a 3.21 ERA and a 124 ERA+, averaging 4.09 strikeouts per walk over his 227 innings pitched. He was a 3.7 fWAR player this past year. The Royals decided to offer Shields a one-year, $15.3 million qualifying offer, but he has yet to make a decision. Shields just isn't as good as Lester or Scherzer. Those are the facts. He's also older, which means that his contract won't be as extravagant, nor for as many years. Currently interested, as previously reported, in Shields are the Yankees, Red Sox, and Cubs (obvious ones), but also the Blue Jays, Orioles, and Marlins. It's hard to gauge the interest of the latter three teams right now, but I have to assume they're in due to a smaller contract size. Shields is a really good pitcher, but this postseason he didn't help his stock in pitching well down the stretch. Lester posted an ERA around 2.6 in close to his last 30 postseason innings and Scherzer has an ERA around 3.6 over his last 30 postseason innings. Shields has a 7.20 ERA over his last 30 postseason innings. This has to be taken into consideration for teams wanting to sign him, for sure. This contract is a tough one to peg for me, but I really believe that the Cubs are going all in this offseason. Whether this means they are going to sign Lester, Shields, or both, I do not know, and I probably won't be able to tell you until both of them sign. My personal opinion is that they will sign Lester, but I'm not sure about Shields. But it's really hard to peg a contract for him in general. So, I have James Shields signing with the Chicago Cubs on a five-year, $80 million contract. --Devan F. Oakland Athletics starter Jon Lester is a free agent this offseason. He was not eligible for a qualifying offer, due to the fact that he pitched for both the Athletics and Red Sox this season. Players who spent time with more than one team are not eligible for a qualifying offer.
The 30-year-old Lester has never hit the open market over his career, as the Red Sox bought out some of his free agent years with a six-year, $42.75 million extension that covered from 2009 to 2014. He has pitched with them since the beginning of his career and now will take the next step. Lester, a Tacoma, Washington, native was drafted by the Red Sox in the 2nd round of the 2002 MLB Draft. He worked quickly through the minor leagues, even netting him as the 22nd best prospect prior to the 2006 season as ranked by Baseball America. Lester came up to the bigs that year and has never looked back, appearing in the major leagues every year since. The three-time All-Star Lester has a ton of big game experience. Lester was a part of two World Series runs, in 2007 and 2013, and played an instrumental part in the Red Sox last title, posting a 1.56 ERA in 34 2/3 innings pitched during the postseason (not quite Bumgarner numbers, but Bumgarner isn't human). Over his career, Lester has logged 1596 innings and posted a 3.58 ERA. Lester spent his first time outside Boston this past season, being traded to the Athletics midseason for Yoenis Cespedes and others. He made 32 starts with the two clubs, going 16-11 with a 2.46 ERA and a 2.80 FIP. He was a 6.1 fWAR player, the second-highest mark of his career. Lester still has a lot left in the tank. He's been one of baseball's best starters since breaking on to the scene in 2008. He logged over 200 innings his first three seasons beginning in 2008, then worked 191 2/3 in 2011, and has worked over 200 every year since. But he is still only 30. Lester is the true workhorse in this free agent class, which will net him a big contract over many seasons. I'm not sure the Athletics can afford to bring Lester back, but I know the Red Sox would love a reunion. After being dealt, Lester felt "no hard feelings" towards Boston, and would be interested in coming back in the offseason. I'm not buying it now though. The Red Sox have $90.3 million committed to eight players already in 2015 and have $22.5 million committed to two in 2016. I'm not sure they can take on another $20 million per year by bringing back Lester. I do think the Cubs are going to busy this offseason. Chicago is this close to contention next year and has a lot of payroll flexibility to get them there. They have $24 million guaranteed to four players next season. That's it. With that in my mind, and the fact that they are reportedly going all out for pitching this offseason, I have them signing Lester to a five-year, $120 million contract. --Devan F. The best player on this year's free agent market is Max Scherzer from the Detroit Tigers. Scherzer was offered a qualifying offer earlier today, but should still have a very strong market considering his accolades and performance on the field.
The 30-year-old Scherzer will be hitting free agency for the first time in his career, as he just wrapped up the arbitration process this past offseason, netting a one-year, $15.53 million deal from Detroit. Considering that the qualifying offer would actually be a decrease in pay for Scherzer, there is an extremely low chance he takes it. Where could he go and what contract could he get? Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported that Scherzer could net a seven-year, $175 million contract from his new team. Scherzer declined an extension from the Tigers that was worth $144 million over six years back prior to this season. He posted another very good season this year and should expect to make more than $144 million. The St. Louis native Scherzer was selected with the 11th overall pick in the 2006 MLB Draft by the Arizona Diamondbacks, out of the University of Missouri Columbia (Columbia, MO). He came up to the big leagues with Arizona for a brief period, but was traded in the three-team trade that sent Curtis Granderson to the Yankees, and Ian Kennedy and Edwin Jackson to the Diamondbacks. Since, Scherzer has improved every year. He completely broke out in 2013, going 21-3 with a 2.90 ERA in 214 1/3 innings pitched, which netted him the 2013 Cy Young award. This past year, Scherzer went 18-5 with a 3.15 ERA in 33 starts coming off his Cy Young season. He struck out 252 hitters and walked just 63 over his 220 1/3 innings of work. Scherzer may have resulted from some poor defense, as his 2.85 FIP suggests that his ERA was 0.30 inflated. It will be hard to pinpoint an exact location for Scherzer now, but I have a strong feeling he ends up in Boston to pitch for the Red Sox. The Chicago Cubs are in for one, or more, top tier starting pitchers, but I cannot see Theo Epstein giving up a second round pick to go get him. The Yankees could be in on him, but a recent report said they weren't going after top starting pitching. The Red Sox want to make another run at the AL East title in 2015. They acquired Yoenis Cespedes and Allen Craig at the trade deadline from the Athletics and Cardinals, respectively, to bolster their lineup and outfield. They still have a strong lineup that has some young talent, but did post a .684 OPS last year, which ranked 22nd in the majors. The Red Sox might need to really retool in order to contend once again. Other suitors for Scherzer are pretty obvious, the Yankees and Cubs. I'm not fully convinced that the Yankees will stay out of the top bidding this season, and the Cubs are going to go after some top pitching. But one, other potential suitor, the St. Louis Cardinals, might be a dark horse for Scherzer. Scherzer discussed the idea of pitching in St. Louis in March. "It would be too cool," Scherzer told the St. Louis Post-Dispatch's Rick Hummel. "I grew up there. When you’re a little kid, you picture yourself putting on the (Cardinals) uniform." No free agent starting pitcher has made over $150 million since CC Sabathia signed with the Yankees prior to the 2009 season. We'll see how the market plays out for Scherzer, but I have the Red Sox signing him to a six-year, $150 million contract, similar to the deal Zack Greinke got from the Dodgers prior to the 2013 season. No matter how you slice it, Scherzer will get paid. --Devan F. |