Jose Fernandez steps out on to the mound to begin the fifth inning. It hadn't been the best start for him, as he pitched four innings, allowing two runs, striking out four. But that fifth inning changed everything for Fernandez and was the inning that swung his career in dramatic fashion. Fernandez had been a fan favorite in the Major Leagues. He is just 21 years old, had been to the 2013 All Star Game, won the Rookie of the Year award, and finished third in the National League Cy Young award voting. He went 12-6 with a 2.19 ERA in 28 starts in 2013. On May 9, however, Fernandez's career had taken a turn for the worse. During his start, Fernandez's fourseam fastball reached an even 98.46 miles per hour in the fourth inning. Then, in the fifth inning, his fourseam fastball fell nearly 10 miles per hour, to just 89.85 miles per hour. Fernandez retired the side in order, but based on the freak fall in velocity, Fernandez definitely injured his arm in the fifth inning. Although his velocity made a minimal rebound in the sixth inning, he allowed two singles, walked Yasmani Grandal, and gave up a grand slam to Jedd Gyorko before being replaced by Brad Hand. Fernandez tore his ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) in his throwing elbow. He needed season-ending surgery. Tommy John had the first UCL surgery back in 1974. Since that time, the procedure, known as "Tommy John surgery," has become more common in the Major Leagues. Prior to Fernandez's injury, 17 major league pitchers had to have the surgery this season, including big-time names such as Matt Moore, Jarrod Parker, and Patrick Corbin. The similarity between all of them? They all had velocity drops like Jose Fernandez did on May 9. The question becomes: How can pitchers avoid Tommy John surgery into the future? Due to the epidemic this season, many have asked the question, and given a wide range of answers. But, they don't know where it really starts. It starts when these pitchers are young; when their arms of developing. And being 13, I have firsthand experience of what goes on with our pitchers and their throwing regimens. The human arm is not built to throw a ball 95 miles per hour. But, many pitchers have found a way to get their fastballs into the 90s and even into the triple-digits. It's the only way to make the major leagues. For instance, JB Bukauskas, a 17-year-old pitcher from Stone Bridge High School in Virginia, can pitch into the mid to high 90s, and has touched 100. Will he need Tommy John surgery eventually? I don't know. But I do know it's not healthy for pitchers to be doing this. In the 20th century, baseball was a spring sport only, and pitchers would use the rest of the year to rest their arms for, well, the spring. Now, in most of the United States, baseball can be played in three, and in some places, all four of the seasons. Pitchers can use the off season to take indoor classes, working on their mechanics and bringing their velocity up. They are throwing pitch after pitch, day after day, and even though they are not being injured immediately, the long-term effects can be staggering. Yes, there are pitch counts. But they can only go so far. If you play on two baseball teams, and the pitch limit is 70 pitches with five days of rest, you can throw 70 pitches one day and come back the next day throwing 70 more pitches. How is this possible? If you are playing on two teams, in different leagues, one team "doesn't know about" the pitches you threw the day before for your other team, thus they can pitch you. And if you're not feeling any pain, why turn down the opportunity to pitch? You wouldn't. My answer to the "Tommy John question" is plain and simple: people are putting too much stress on their arms when they are young, basically ruining their elbows at a young age. And if/when they make the major leagues, their arms cannot handle what is given to them, causing a tear in their UCL, and leading to what has been a horror for many lately, Tommy John surgery.
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30. Chicago Cubs (16-27)*
Pitcher Jeff Samardzija is second in the National League in ERA, but has yet to earn a win, going 0-4 in his nine starts. Since 1914, only Whitey Ford and he have gone nine starts, each allowing three or less runs, without getting a win. That goes to show how hard it is for the Cubs to score some runs and win ballgames consistently. 29. Houston Astros (17-29)* Offseason acquisition Dexter Fowler has been the main cog in the offensive attack for the Astros, leading the team in OPS+, on base percentage, and runs scored. Overall, the Astros rank second-to-last in the American League in batting average, last in runs scored, and fourth-to-last in OPS. It's been a tough season all the way around for Houston. 28. Pittsburgh Pirates (18-26)* The Pittsburgh Pirates cannot find that same spark that took them all the way to the postseason last year. Part of the reason could be the play from outfielder Starling Marte, who's OPS+ took a big hit, from 121 to 108. There is reason for hope in Pittsburgh. Their team batting average has gone up 22 points since the beginning of May, but their pitching staff has brought it's ERA up too. Losing five of their last seven does not help, either. 27. Philadelphia Phillies (20-22)* The Phillies are seeing on-and-off play from third baseman Cody Asche so far this season. He has 16 hits and a .333 batting average in the month of May, but seven of those 16 hits have come in the last three games. Without those at bats and hits, Asche would be batting just .250. The Phillies offense has been just like Asche, inconsistent. The Phillies have been shut out five times in May, but have averaged 3.8 runs a game, higher than their April mark of 3.7. 26. Tampa Bay Rays (19-27)* I am not really sure what has gone wrong with the Rays to begin this season. They have scored an adequate amount of runs, have an average American League ERA of 4.20, but are sitting at the bottom of the American League East at 19-26. Injuries seem to be the main issue. Matt Moore is going to miss the entire season, Ben Zobrist has a dislocated thumb, and Jeremy Hellickson recently had right elbow surgery. It does not get much worse than that. 25. Chicago White Sox (23-24)* Jose Abreu is now on the disabled list. He leads the American League in home runs, RBI, slugging percentage, and total bases. He has been the heart and sole of the White Sox. Without him, it looks like they could be falling down this list, and fast. But for now, they are holding their own at number 25, despite losing six of their last eight games. 24. San Diego Padres (21-25)* I expected more from the San Diego Padres going into this season. They really have not been meeting expectations, and injuries have slowed them more than ever. Like the Rays, many of their stars are currently hurt and on the disabled list, including Andrew Cashner and Josh Johnson. In order for the Padres to make a move, their offense has to pick up the pace. They rank second-to-last in the National League in runs scored, but rank second in ERA. 23. Arizona Diamondbacks (18-29)* The Arizona Diamondbacks made a fantastic hire in Tony LaRussa to lead their baseball operations. They have been able to string some wins together in May, going 9-6 thus far, scoring 0.6 more runs per game this month than they have all season. The light is finally starting to be seen at the end of this long dark tunnel. Their pitching is starting to figure it out as well, posting a 3.81 ERA in the month. 22. Cleveland Indians (21-25)* Lonnie Chisenhall has been the Indians best producer this season, posting a .912 OPS, 162 OPS+, and a .364 batting average, all leading the team. Chisenhall has played in only three games against a left-handed pitcher, compared to 31 against righties, causing much uproar across the web. Over his career, Chisenhall has just a .205 batting average against lefties. 21. Texas Rangers (21-24)* Prince Fielder has a herniated disk in his neck, which is just even more great news for Rangers fans. They have 13 players on the disabled list to begin the season, and even Fielder, who had played in 547 straight games, is now going to be on the sidelines, adding yet another player to the lengthy list of names of Rangers that are injured (although Fielder will not be going on the disabled list). The MLB season is just minutes away from kicking off, and I have come with the predictions that you have all been waiting for, my postseason and award picks! After giving a short preview for each team in my division rankings (they are linked in the post), here are my postseason picks! National League East -- Washington Nationals (3) Central -- St. Louis Cardinals (1) West -- Los Angels Dodgers (2) Wild Card -- Philadelphia Phillies (4) Wild Card -- Arizona Diamondbacks (5)
Rookie of the Year: Billy Hamilton, Cincinnati Reds Cy Young: Jose Fernandez, Miami Marlins MVP: Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals Breakout Team: Milwaukee Brewers National League Champion: Washington Nationals American League East -- New York Yankees (2) Central -- Detroit Tigers (1) West -- Los Angeles Angels (3) Wild Card -- Oakland Athletics (4) Wild Card -- Tampa Bay Rays (5)
Rookie of the Year: Masahiro Tanaka, New York Yankees Cy Young: Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers MVP: Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels Breakout Team: Kansas City Royals American League Champion: Detroit Tigers 2014 World Series Prediction Washington Nationals in seven games. The Nationals have the best roster in all of baseball, and after a tough season last year, they will be playing with a chip on their shoulder. With a rotation that includes Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Doug Fister, and Jordan Zimmermann, the Nationals may not have the best regular season record, but can cruise through the postseason. Bryce Harper, my MVP pick, is going to hit 40 or more home runs. Jayson Werth will post a really good average, and Ian Desmond will the fantastic shortstop he is. The Nationals are built to win this World Series, and after having a good off season, there is no doubt in my mind that they do not win it.
The case for the Tigers: The Detroit Tigers offense might just be a little bit better then the Nationals', and they could easily defeat the team with their pitching as well. They have way more postseason experience after having played in the last three consecutive, and they are also built to win a championship as well. Their rotation is just as good as the Nationals', and they've got more star power in their lineup to perhaps beat them. The countdown to Opening Day is getting smaller. The Opening Series is well over, and there are only two days to Opening Day. Every day, from now to the beginning of the season, I will be previewing at least one division, leading up to my postseason picks on Opening Night. After doing all three NL divisions (E C W), we will continue with the American League, starting with the East division today. 1. New York Yankees -- 2013 Record: 85-77; Projected Record: 93-69 The New York Yankees have a lot to play for this upcoming season. First, Derek Jeter will not be returning to the club next year, as he has announced his retirement from the game of baseball earlier this spring. Second, the Yankees went all out this off season with free agents, perhaps proving to the American League that they are a force to be reckoned with. And third, they just want to win. Last season, they missed the playoffs for the first time since 2008, something that is considered unacceptable. They want to be back, and fast. This off season, the Yankees went all out. They signed Jacoby Ellsbury, Carlos Beltran, Brian McCann, and Masahiro Tanaka. Their 2014 team will look much different from the one in 2013. By signing Ellsbury, Beltran, and McCann, the Yankees will add to an offense where two hitters, Robinson Cano and Brett Gardner posted an OPS+ above 100. Yes, Cano is gone, but all three of their offensive signees did post an OPS+ above 100. The Yankees also added Masahiro Tanaka, a 27 year old Japanese pitcher whom posted a perfect record in the NPB. He has a 2.14 ERA this Spring Training. The outlook on the Yankees season looks pretty good, with their new additions likely helping them out and getting them back to the postseason. In a division that is historically tough, the Yankees pushed themselves to the top with a great off season, and one last season from Derek Jeter. It seems like a storybook ending for "The Captain's" career. 2. Tampa Bay Rays -- 2013 Record: 92-71; Projected Record: 90-72 The Tampa Bay Rays always seem to be one of the most sneaky teams down the stretch into September. I always feel like I am the one that thinks that the Rays cannot do it another year. They always find a way to do it. So, this year, I am predicting them to finish second in the AL East and take a Wild Card spot. The Rays have a good balance between hitting and pitching, and boast one of the best saber-metric inclined front offices, something that has taken them to contention four of the six years since they changed their name to the Rays (they were originally the Devil Rays). This off season, the Rays re-signed James Loney, signed Grant Balfour, and traded for Ryan Hanigan. None of these moves are considered blockbusters, but Loney played a huge role for the Rays last season, Balfour was a lights-out closer for Oakland, and Ryan Hanigan has been a very good backup catcher and will get the starting nod in Tampa Bay. The Rays front office knows what they're doing, and these moves will help fix some of the holes the Rays had coming into the season. The Rays are a great fundamental team, which has been one of the biggest keys to success in the Major Leagues over the past five years. The Rays might be able to capture the American League East, but a tough division will likely say otherwise. A first or second Wild Card spot seems to fit the 2014 Rays description. 3. Boston Red Sox -- 2013 Record: 97-65; Projected Record: 89-75 The Red Sox fall off the table very quickly this season. Going from the World Series champions to a third place finisher just does not seem right, but they had some significant losses this off season, cupped with very few additions. The Red Sox were supposed to be bad last season, and it looks like they will start to settle to their "true position" this season. They will be relying more on younger, inexperienced talent, and will be missing Jacoby Ellsbury (Yankees), Stephen Drew (Free Agent), and Jarrod Saltalamacchia (Marlins) from their lineup in 2014. The Red Sox filled the Saltalamacchia void this off season by signing catcher A.J. Pierzynski. A lifetime .283 hitter, Pierzynski is a good hitter, but will be entering his age 37 season, something that may be a warning flag, especially for a full-time catcher. The voids of Stephen Drew and Jacoby Ellsbury will be filled by rookies Xander Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley Jr., respectively. They both are fantastic prospects, but their first full season may not be where the Red Sox want them. This season's outlook looks like it could go in many different directions for the Red Sox. Nothing really seems set in stone, so do not be surprised if the Red Sox win the division again. However, that would surprise me, following the loss of three really good hitters from their lineup. The Red Sox season looks disappointing, as they fall to third in their division. 4. Baltimore Orioles -- 2013 Record: 85-77; Projected Record: 88-74 The Orioles are going all in this season, signing both Ubaldo Jimenez and Nelson Cruz late into the off season. Other than that, they still have a similar team to last season's. They have a great offense with Chris Davis, Adam Jones, Manny Machado, Matt Wieters, and now Nelson Cruz. But their rotation does not look as good. Behind Jimenez (who is not the best pitcher ALL the time), the Orioles have Chris Tillman, Wei-Yin Chen, Bud Norris, and Miguel Gonzalez. That's not good enough to contend in the AL East. This off season, the Orioles' two big moves were Ubaldo Jimenez and Nelson Cruz. They signed both within a short time of one another, after remaining relatively silent earlier in the winter. They have had a good off season, but they just are not good enough to be in contention with the rest of the East. They have the Yankees, Rays, and Red Sox above them, and just do not look quite as good as the rest of the teams. The Orioles could be a playoff team. They could win one of the two Wild Cards, which would not surprise me. However, they face some tough foes in not only the American League East, but the American League in general. In order to win a playoff spot, their pitching has to improve itself from what it is shaping up to be. It just does not look like it will, and I am not sure if it can. 5. Toronto Blue Jays -- 2013 Record: 74-88; Projected Record: 78-84 The Blue Jays are still trying to make the most of a 2012 trade with the Miami Marlins, when they acquired Jose Reyes, Mark Buerhle, and Josh Johnson all in one trade. They also acquired R.A. Dickey, coming off of a Cy Young. In theory, the Blue Jays had a fantastic off season. But after a dismal year, it looks like those moves just did not work out, and they have not done much to add to them. It looks like another bad year for the Toronto Blue Jays in 2014. This off season, the biggest move the Blue Jays made was the signing of catcher Dioner Navarro. I applaud them for doing that, as he is one of the most underrated catchers in all of the Major Leagues. He is good offensively (as of last season), can call a good game, and can be a force behind home plate. He was a fantastic move for the Jays, who have needed a catcher following a terrible season from J.P. Arencibia (59 OPS+ in 497 plate appearances). In general, I would be very surprised if the Toronto Blue Jays make any noise in the bottom of the American League East division. As I've repeated numerous times, the division is a tough one, and a team without great depth nor a great pitching staff can't survive in a division as tough as the American League East. It looks like it will be a few years before the Blue Jays become dominant again. |