Coming into this offseason, the Padres' largest free agent signing ever (in total) was that of Joaquin Benoit on a two-year, $15.5 million, signed in December 2013.
Times have changed in San Diego, and at 6:30 pm eastern, the signing of James Shields to a four-year, $75 million deal became official. Shields' signing almost surely wraps up what appears to be the Padres' greatest offseason ever, after they acquired a brand-new outfield in Justin Upton, Matt Kemp, and Wil Myers from the Braves, Dodgers, and Rays, respectively, while also adding a catcher and a third baseman in Derek Norris and Will Middlebrooks. I have heard and seen people, Padres fans and non-Padres fans, call the team "World Series contenders." Hold on a second there. Let's take a step back, shall we? I'm not sure the Padres are even division contenders, playoff contenders, or even 90 win contenders in 2015. FanGraphs projects the team to finish 80-82. While that may be a bit on the conservative side, I would not be surprised if they finished between 80 and 89 wins in the new campaign. A lot of questions remain in San Diego, even after adding Shields, Upton, Kemp, Myers, Norris, and Middlebrooks. First is outfield defense. The Padres are planning on playing Upton in left, Myers in center, and Kemp in right. That outfield as a whole might just be the worst defensive outfield in baseball. The three outfielders are projected to post a combined -18.9 Fielding Rating (Fielding and Positional Adjustment Above Average) in 2015. That would have put them in the bottom 10 in baseball last year. I'm also not convinced that Myers will hit. After posting a 131 OPS+ in 373 plate appearances in 2013 while winning the Rookie of the Year award, Myers has been almost exactly as far below average as a hitter in 2014 as he was above average in 2013. He posted a 77 OPS+ in 361 plate appearances last year. Myers' on-base percentage dropped 60 points from 2013 to 2014, while his average dropped over 70 and his slugging percentage dropped almost 160. Myers' production, or lack thereof, could be attributed to a wrist fracture suffered in May. However, even when he came back in August, he was worse. From August 20 through the end of the season, Myers hit .213/.263/.268/.530 in 137 plate appearances. That's why I'm not convinced he is a big league hitter. It will take a full, healthy season to really see which Wil Myers he is, the emerging star or prospect bust. I'm also worried about the chemistry of this team. The best baseball clubs are the ones that came through the minors together, that worked together, and that would do anything for each other. The 2013 World Series Champion Red Sox had great players in the clubhouse, ones that would worry about benefitting the team ahead of themselves. The 2008 World Series Champion Phillies, behind a core of Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Shane Victorino, and Cole Hamels, had great chemistry. The Padres are a team full of players from different teams. In their starting lineup, only three players, Alexi Amarista, Jedd Gyorko, and Yonder Alonso, were with the team last year. What type of chemistry will this bunch form? It's hard to know, but history tells us that they won't mesh. The 2012 Miami Marlins and 2013 Toronto Blue Jays, both considered to be the "winner" of their respective offseason, went a combined 143-181 (.441) in those two years. If the Padres post a .441 winning percentage this season, they would go 71-91, a complete failure. While it's nice to have James Shields, Justin Upton, Matt Kemp, Wil Myers, Derek Norris, and Will Middlebrooks join a team in an offseason, does it really mean contention? And for the Padres, I'm not so sure. They will have their chance to prove it to me in the coming months. --Devan Fink
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The Padres' offseason can be described in one word. "Wow." Their baseball operations, along with GM A.J. Preller, have been so busy these past two days, acquiring Matt Kemp, Wil Myers, Justin Upton, Derek Norris, and Will Middlebrooks.
Winning the offseason by no means winning in the regular season. Kemp, Myers, and Upton might be great offensively, but their defense is absolutely horrific. According to FanGraphs' defensive rating, the defensive combination of Kemp, Myers, and Upton posted a -37.2 rating in 2014. That's an average of a -12.4 rating per player, which would be, as one player, the 10th-worst rating in the majors. Padres' pitchers should watch out if they plan on giving up fly balls. On the contrary, Kemp, Myers, and Upton are some of the better right-handed power hitters in the major leagues. They posted 140, 78 (Myers was injured), and 133 wRC+s last season, respectively. However, the conditions out at Petco Park are brutal for power hitters, as Petco has ranked in the bottom five of the major leagues in home runs from right-handed hitters two of the past three years. So the question becomes, are the additions of three power hitters that cannot play good defense worthwhile for the Padres? We have seen two teams, the 2012 Marlins and the 2013 Blue Jays, making unnecessary signings and trades, as the world thought that they were the "winners" of the offseason. They did not perform, or perform well rather, on the field. I am just not sure what this Padres team turns out to be. But it will be interesting to see nonetheless. One reason that will make me believe that they are different than the Marlins or the Jays is that they are acquiring younger guys than Toronto or Miami in their respective seasons. When Jose Reyes signed with the Marlins in 2012, he was 29. Then he was moved to Toronto as a 30-year-old, where he still is today, and likely will still be through the 2017 season. As for the Padres acquisitions, Wil Myers is 24. He was drafted just five years ago. Justin Upton is 27. Kemp is the outlier of this group, at age 30. But the main difference between these guys and the ones that the Blue Jays and Marlins acquired was that these pieces are still young and evidently very talented. Add in 26-year-old Will Middlebrooks, who was baseball's 55th-best prospect (via Baseball America) prior to the 2012 season, and 25-year-old Derek Norris, who isn't arbitration-eligible until next season. Middlebrooks, who still has talent, was acquired for a backup catcher. And four years of Derek Norris were acquired for two young pitchers, while still keeping the Padres' rotation intact. A.J. Preller is taking youth and upside over proven veterans. Sure, he's got two proven veterans in Matt Kemp and Justin Upton, but when you step back and see what he's doing, he's getting young talent, and buying most of it on the low (Myers, Middlebrooks). If the Padres don't win in 2015, it isn't the end of the world. All these acquisitions will translate into jersey sales, season tickets, TV contracts, and more. The small market San Diego team might be taking a different approach to winning. Preller is doing something amazing. Regardless of the performance on the field, A.J. Preller has shown that he will do anything it takes to make the Padres win on the field. And that makes them the real winners. --Devan Fink Free agent third baseman Pablo Sandoval appears to be closing in on signing with his next team. He reportedly will be making a decision next week. It's been an interesting ride thus far for Sandoval as three teams have emerged as the favorites in the bidding. The Giants, Red Sox, and Padres are the three main teams interested in Sandoval's services. They each have made their bids. The Red Sox reportedly had the highest bid coming into today, offering Sandoval a five-year, $95 million contract. The Padres made their offer to the third baseman today and reportedly made the "high bid" for Sandoval. The Giants' contract offer details haven't been reported, but they are still making a push for Sandoval as well, leading to what looks to be an interesting coming week. Contract negotiations for Sandoval are likely to reach over $100 million, especially if the Padres topped the Red Sox five-year, $95 million deal today. Sandoval was only a 3.0 fWAR player in 2014, and at age 28 with his weight, he may start declining within the next couple of years or so. Sandoval hit 16 homers in 2014, which was his most since 2011. I don't know if Sandoval is worth $19-$20 million per season. At the end of last offseason, Dave Cameron of FanGraphs wrote an interesting article on how much money was invested per win. He found that the average player was given about $7 million per win, while the median player was given $5.9 million per win. Based on the Red Sox' offer to Sandoval, he'd be paid about $6.3 million per win, which could be considered a steal based on the average. But Sandoval won't be improving over the next five seasons. I'm not sure if a $100 million commitment to a 28-year-old, 245 pound third baseman is the right thing to do for any of these three teams. I think that when we look back at this deal, we will see that the negatives outweigh the positives. Don't get me wrong; Sandoval is a good player. But does a "good" player deserve $20 million a year, a deal usually reserved for an absolute stud? In 2014, twenty-two players were paid $20 million or more. Cole Hamels, Zack Greinke, and Felix Hernandez were absolute studs. They all made over $20 million. Vernon Wells, Ryan Howard, and Prince Fielder also made over $20 million. Wells wasn't on a team, Fielder was injured for most of the year, and Howard was, well, Howard. When we look back at the Sandoval deal five years down the road, will we see a Jayson Werth deal or an Albert Pujols deal? I don't think either is a guarantee. When Werth signed his seven-year, $126 million deal with the Nationals, he was older than Sandoval (31), but had posted a 4.9 fWAR the season before. His contract with Washington guaranteed him an average of $18 million a year, and since signing, Werth has posted fWARs of 2.3, 0.6, 4.6, and 4.8, respectively. He is still guaranteed to be in a Nationals uniform for three more years, but he has been very good. Sandoval is in a different situation than Werth. He's three years older, but didn't produce as well in his contract year. Sandoval might be projected to regress faster than Werth, who still has shown the ability to get on base, hit, and hit for power. I am mixed on the rumored deal for Sandoval. I really think it comes down to how much a team is willing to spend over how many years. I think a five-year deal is right on the money for him, but a contract could be over $100 million, which would make him amongst the richest in the major leagues. I don't know if he is worth it. We will find out soon enough. Or in five years. Whichever comes first. --Devan F. The 2014 MLB Draft starts on June 5. Over 2,000 young men will become professional baseball players, as teams hope to find their future starts. I'll be covering the draft on Twitter, so make sure you are following and check it out as the draft goes on. Here are my predictions for how the first round plays out: 1. Houston Astros -- Brady Aiken, LHP, Cathedral Catholic High School (CA) Aiken has the perfect pitcher frame; he's 6 foot, 3 inches, and weighs 210 pounds. The 18-year-old throws a fastball into the low 90s, many project it could reach the 92-94 range; has a solid curve that has a good break, it could become a plus offering; and has great deception on his change-up, which could also be a plus offering into the future. 2. Miami Marlins -- Carlos Rodon, LHP, North Carolina State Carlos Rodon has a shot to go to the Astros at number one, but I think he'll fall to the Marlins at two. Rondon has a fastball that can touch 97 mph and can overpower hitters late in the count with a fantastic slider. He's working on a change-up that could be an average pitch into the future. He's got the durability and frame to become a number one starter when it is all set and done. 3. Chicago White Sox -- Tyler Kolek, RHP, Shepard High School (TX) The Chicago White Sox haven't selected a pitcher in the first round since they picked Chris Sale in 2010. They won't pick another position player here. Simply put, Tyler Kolek has the best fastball of the entire draft class. He can hit 97-99 mph routinely and can touch 100 on the gun. His command isn't top notch, but if it comes, watch out. Kolek has been compared to Nolan Ryan in the past. 4. Chicago Cubs -- Aaron Nola, RHP, LSU The Cubs have plenty of bats in their system, but pitching comes more at a premium. Aaron Nola, the righty coming from Louisiana State, can balance their organization. He hit the low to mid 90s with his fastball with some sink, a fantastic curveball, that, when he's on, can make anyone swing and miss, and a decent change that sometimes flashes plus. He's got good command and hits his spots. Of the 2014 draft prospects, Nola has the best chance to reach his ceiling and make the big leagues first. 5. Minnesota Twins -- Nick Gordon, SS, Olympia High School (FL) The Twins have been connected to Gordon, and he will be drafted here. While passing up Alex Jackson, perhaps the best offensive player in the draft, they are getting a speedy shortstop with a fantastic glove. The brother of Dee, Nick Gordon has a nice line drive stroke with some pop, making him the best shortstop in the 2014 class. The Twins have a lot of pitching in their system, but are lacking some position players. Gordon will add to that. 6. Seattle Mariners -- Alex Jackson, C/OF, Rancho Bernardo High School (CA) This pick will enrage the Phillies, who need another bat in their system. Jackson could, and just might, be a top five pick, but I predict he falls to the Mariners at number six. While the Mariners have hitting in their system, they cannot pass up on Jackson, who's bat could post a .280 average with 25-35 homers in the big leagues. While he has a good arm behind the plate, many expect him to move to the outfield to maximize his bat. 7. Philadelphia Phillies -- Kyle Freeland, LHP, Evansville The Phillies farm system improved via their last draft, so I expect them to continue to boost their stock with the seventh overall selection. They take the best available player on the boards, picking Kyle Freeland of Evansville. Freeland can touch 94 with the fastball, while many expect that to rise as his big frame could bring that into the mid-90s. He's got a good slider and a good changeup, which could be an above average and a plus pitch, respectively. 8. Colorado Rockies -- Sean Newcomb, LHP, Hartford The University of Hartford has only had one player drafted before the tenth round (Jeff Bagwell, 4th Round) ever. Sean Newcomb will change that. He'll likely be a top ten pick, and I believe he'll go to the Rockies at number eight. He has a fastball that can reach 97 miles per hour, a slider with some bite, a change up, and a curveball. Although his command is not top quality, few can match his velocity. 9. Toronto Blue Jays -- Trea Turner, SS, North Carolina State The Blue Jays get two selections in the top fifteen, at numbers nine and eleven. They select shortstop Trea Turner at number nine from North Carolina State. Turner has excellent speed and will be a threat to run whenever he is on the basepaths, is a decent fielder, and will likely bat at the top of the order. While his swing still needs improvement to get more line drives, Turner's speed will likely have him land at nine. 10. New York Mets -- Michael Confronto, OF, Oregon State The Mets have some great pitching prospects. A college outfielder would definitely be a great compliment to that. Michael Confronto from Oregon State is Baseball America's highest rated outfielder (except for Alex Jackson who is a C/OF) and for could reason. Confronto has the opportunity to hit 25 or more home runs in the majors due to his size and uppercut he has in his swing. He swings and misses a lot, so his average shouldn't be great, but his average defense and above average power should be enough to land him at number 10. 11. Toronto Blue Jays -- Touki Toussaint, RHP, Coral Springs High School (FL) The Blue Jays have a very strong connection with Toussaint, so there is no reason why he shouldn't be drafted by them. Toussaint's fastball operates in the 91-93 range, but has hit 97; his curveball has so much downward action that catchers can barely catch it; and his changeup needs work, as he throws it too hard into the mid-80s. Toussaint, however, does have good promise, and the Blue Jays should be willing to take a chance on him here at number 11. 12. Milwaukee Brewers -- Max Pentecost, C, Kennessaw State The Brewers could go with a number of players here, but they are particularly weak at catcher in their organization. Pentecost has a good line drive swing and is smart in the batter's box. He also can post minimal power numbers, you might be able to get around 15 home runs in the majors. He's a decent backstop, as his arm is very good, but it needs work on accuracy. Many expect that Pentecost will be able to remain at the catcher position, so the Brewers will nab him here at number 12. 13. San Diego Padres -- Brandon Finnegan, LHP, Texas Christian If anyone has the best chance ten years down the road to be considered a "steal" in this draft, Finnegan is it. He has a commanding fastball that can reach up to 98 on the gun, a good feel for a change up that could be above average, and a swing and miss "slurve-like" pitch. He's got decent command that keeps runners off of base via the walk and hit by pitch, and repeats his motion very nicely. Let me tell you again: Finnegan will be dominating hitters in the majors in just a few years. 14. San Francisco Giants -- Grant Holmes, RHP, Conway High School (SC) The Giants have been connected to Holmes, so it's very likely they select him. Holmes can really throw the heater, touching triple digits at times. He has a ridiculous curveball that is harder than normal, but has great spin and depth. His changeup is still developing, something that will need to happen in order for Holmes to make it big at the next level. The Giants are good at developing some talent, so I think Holmes will be put into a good situation in San Francisco. 15. Los Angeles Angels -- Kyle Schwarber, C/1B, Indiana The Angles will likely be looking for an advanced college bat to help them in the near future. Schwarber perfectly fits that mold as he has some very good power, while also working counts in his favor. People view him as a 30+ homer player if he can remain healthy and play everyday, which is why he could be making the move to first base in the near future. Besides C.J Cron, the Angels really don't have very powerful first baseman or catchers in their organization. Schwarber will change that. 16. Arizona Diamondbacks -- Bradley Zimmer, OF, San Francisco Zimmer has a fantastic swing that keeps him in the first round of this draft. He hits line drives to all fields and could provide some power if he adds loft to his swing. Regardless, he's a very solid choice. Zimmer has good instincts on the base paths and has decent speed as well. He could play center field, but his arm definitely has the makings of a corner outfielder. 17. Kansas City Royals -- Tyler Beede, RHP, Vanderbilt The Royals like their pitching, and Beede is no exception. He can pitch. Beede throws quite a heater; sitting around 92-94 and topping out a 97. He has a sharp curveball and good changeup, both looking like above average pitches into the future. He was selected in the first round of the 2011 MLB Draft by the Blue Jays, but decided to attend Vanderbilt. He was dominant and set a school-record 14 victories last spring. Beede could go higher, but his command has some issues. 18. Washington Nationals -- Derek Hill, OF, Elk Grove High School (CA) Hill's dad, Orsino, is a scout for the Los Angeles Dodgers, but likely won't get his shot at his son at pick 22, as Derek will likely be a top-20 selection. I have him going here to the Nationals, and even though they like college bats, Hill has the chance to be something special. He flies on the basepaths, is a fantastic defender, and offers a very good line drive swing with a nice approach. Hill has the chance to add some power as he gets older, something to perhaps make him more valuable. 19. Cincinnati Reds -- Monte Harrison, OF, Lee's Summit West High School (MO) The Reds like Harrison because of his athletic ability, and while this may be a bit of a reach at 19, he's definitely worth a look late in the first round. Harrison has a ton of raw talent, as he has committed to Nebraska to play both football and baseball. Harrison's bat needs some improvement, but if he solely focuses on baseball, it should definitely speed that up. His arm is his best asset; he was clocked throwing 97 mph from center field during the Perfect Game National in June. 20. Tampa Bay Rays -- Casey Gallipse, 1B, Wichita State Gallipse has awesome power. One scout said that Gallipse was the best switch-hitter he has seen in years and gave him a chance to be Mark Teixeira or Lance Berkman. His power is fantastic -- he led the Cape Cod League with eight homers in 43 games. He shows a great approach and is able to hit for a decent average. The Rays need to add to their diminishing farm system, and a college bat like Gallipse should do exactly that. 21. Cleveland Indians -- Derek Fisher, OF, Virginia The Indians want a college bat, like many of the teams in front of them, so they go with a proven prospect in Derek Fisher. He was drafted by the Rangers in 2011, and turned down a substantial offer to head to Virginia. Well here he is again, and better than ever. Fisher had some issues in his first two years in college, but had a strong showing in the Cape Cod League, posting a .453 on-base percentage. Fisher has raw hitting abilities and power and he could be a plus player into the future. 22. Los Angeles Dodgers -- Erick Feede, RHP, Nevada-Las Vegas The Dodgers would love Feede here. While they really don't need any older pitchers, Feede's upside is great, even though he did just have Tommy John surgery. When healthy, Feede can throw as high as 95 mph, sporting flashes of an above-average slider and a good changeup. His size isn't the biggest, so it is possible that Feede could end up projecting into a really good pitcher. And we know all too well that the Dodgers really like really good pitchers. 23. Detroit Tigers -- Nick Howard, RHP, Virginia Howard is used as the Cavaliers' closer, due to the fact that he can throw into the high 90s, touching 98 at times. He has a really good slider at times, but it can lose its bite. The Tigers might be able to convert Howard back into a starter, which may be the reason for taking him at 23 overall. But I don't have any issues with Howard sticking as a closer, something he might be able to excel at in the majors. 24. Pittsburgh Pirates -- Jacob Gatewood, SS, Clovis High School (CA) This might be a bit low for Gatewood, but it's hard to project him going any higher. The Dodgers, who like players that add value, could nab Gatewood, but I have them going with Feede. Gatewood is a very powerful shortstop and is also a great athlete that has good arm strength. People were concerned about his bat in general, which has hurt his stock over the past few weeks. With a better bat, he could be a top 10 pick, which is why the Pirates could be getting a very nice steal at 24. 25. Oakland Athletics -- Ti'quan Forbes, SS, Columbia High School (MS) Rumor has it that the Athletics like Forbes, so that is who I'm having them go with here. Forbes may be a bit of a reach, but Billy Beane knows young talent better than anyone. He's good across the boards, showing promise fielding, especially with his arm, which could end up moving him to third base. At 6-foot-4, Forbes' bat could improve into being a solid hitter. The Athletics like taking young bats under their wings and improving them. 26. Boston Red Sox -- Micheal Chavis, SS, Sprayberry High School (GA) Chavis is very solid across the boards, but does not have one aspect of his game that wows scouts. He has a good line-drive swing and could hit 18-20 homers in the big leagues. His arm, one of his strengths, could move him to anywhere in the infield. The Red Sox will have many options if/when he comes up to the big leagues. He will likely end up at third base, where many think the Red Sox will draft this year. 27. St. Louis Cardinals -- Luis Ortiz, RHP, Sanger High School (CA) The Cardinals are known for developing young pitching, so it's hard to project them picking anything but a pitcher. Luis Ortiz of Sanger High School has tremendous upside, topping out at 97 mph. He has a slider that can make hitters swing-and-miss, while also having a decent changeup. Ortiz is working on a curveball as well to add to his repertoire as well. There are some injury issues in his forearm, but the Cardinals should be willing to take a chance on him down at number 27. 30. Chicago Cubs (16-27)*
Pitcher Jeff Samardzija is second in the National League in ERA, but has yet to earn a win, going 0-4 in his nine starts. Since 1914, only Whitey Ford and he have gone nine starts, each allowing three or less runs, without getting a win. That goes to show how hard it is for the Cubs to score some runs and win ballgames consistently. 29. Houston Astros (17-29)* Offseason acquisition Dexter Fowler has been the main cog in the offensive attack for the Astros, leading the team in OPS+, on base percentage, and runs scored. Overall, the Astros rank second-to-last in the American League in batting average, last in runs scored, and fourth-to-last in OPS. It's been a tough season all the way around for Houston. 28. Pittsburgh Pirates (18-26)* The Pittsburgh Pirates cannot find that same spark that took them all the way to the postseason last year. Part of the reason could be the play from outfielder Starling Marte, who's OPS+ took a big hit, from 121 to 108. There is reason for hope in Pittsburgh. Their team batting average has gone up 22 points since the beginning of May, but their pitching staff has brought it's ERA up too. Losing five of their last seven does not help, either. 27. Philadelphia Phillies (20-22)* The Phillies are seeing on-and-off play from third baseman Cody Asche so far this season. He has 16 hits and a .333 batting average in the month of May, but seven of those 16 hits have come in the last three games. Without those at bats and hits, Asche would be batting just .250. The Phillies offense has been just like Asche, inconsistent. The Phillies have been shut out five times in May, but have averaged 3.8 runs a game, higher than their April mark of 3.7. 26. Tampa Bay Rays (19-27)* I am not really sure what has gone wrong with the Rays to begin this season. They have scored an adequate amount of runs, have an average American League ERA of 4.20, but are sitting at the bottom of the American League East at 19-26. Injuries seem to be the main issue. Matt Moore is going to miss the entire season, Ben Zobrist has a dislocated thumb, and Jeremy Hellickson recently had right elbow surgery. It does not get much worse than that. 25. Chicago White Sox (23-24)* Jose Abreu is now on the disabled list. He leads the American League in home runs, RBI, slugging percentage, and total bases. He has been the heart and sole of the White Sox. Without him, it looks like they could be falling down this list, and fast. But for now, they are holding their own at number 25, despite losing six of their last eight games. 24. San Diego Padres (21-25)* I expected more from the San Diego Padres going into this season. They really have not been meeting expectations, and injuries have slowed them more than ever. Like the Rays, many of their stars are currently hurt and on the disabled list, including Andrew Cashner and Josh Johnson. In order for the Padres to make a move, their offense has to pick up the pace. They rank second-to-last in the National League in runs scored, but rank second in ERA. 23. Arizona Diamondbacks (18-29)* The Arizona Diamondbacks made a fantastic hire in Tony LaRussa to lead their baseball operations. They have been able to string some wins together in May, going 9-6 thus far, scoring 0.6 more runs per game this month than they have all season. The light is finally starting to be seen at the end of this long dark tunnel. Their pitching is starting to figure it out as well, posting a 3.81 ERA in the month. 22. Cleveland Indians (21-25)* Lonnie Chisenhall has been the Indians best producer this season, posting a .912 OPS, 162 OPS+, and a .364 batting average, all leading the team. Chisenhall has played in only three games against a left-handed pitcher, compared to 31 against righties, causing much uproar across the web. Over his career, Chisenhall has just a .205 batting average against lefties. 21. Texas Rangers (21-24)* Prince Fielder has a herniated disk in his neck, which is just even more great news for Rangers fans. They have 13 players on the disabled list to begin the season, and even Fielder, who had played in 547 straight games, is now going to be on the sidelines, adding yet another player to the lengthy list of names of Rangers that are injured (although Fielder will not be going on the disabled list). |