Oakland Athletics' left-hander Scott Kazmir is not Cole Hamels.
Yet, at the Trade Deadline in two months, Kazmir could be the biggest bargain for any team in desperate need of some starting pitching help. Kazmir has had a solid start to this season, going 2-3 with a 3.09 ERA (3.93 FIP) and a 53 to 22 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 55.1 innings pitched. With all the need out there for an extra starting pitcher, Kazmir's stock could increase in the coming months. The Athletics' season has not started out hot, going 15-30 in their first 45 games. Knowing Billy Beane, the team is going to move some players in July. Kazmir is bound to be one of them. Oakland inked Kazmir to a two-year, $22 million deal prior to the 2014 season, and the deal has gone exactly how they hoped, with Kazmir pitching to a mid-3 ERA including an All-Star season last year. With Kazmir becoming a free agent this winter, it does not make sense for the Athletics to keep him. Possible suitors for Kazmir include the Dodgers, Blue Jays, Orioles, and even the Red Sox (if they can't get Cole Hamels). In my mind, all four of those clubs would be willing to give Beane the fair prospect price for Kazmir, which would probably be one or perhaps two intriguing lower-level prospects, similar to the Franklin Barreto addition in the Josh Donaldson deal. With every good start he makes, Kazmir becomes more valuable in a trade. His first start, against the Rangers, showed exactly what he is capable of. He threw seven innings, allowing one hit and no runs, striking out ten and walking just two. If that can't help the Blue Jays rotation with their 5.15 ERA, the Red Sox rotation with their 5.08 ERA, or the Dodgers with all the injuries to their rotation in Hyun-jin Ryu and Brandon McCarthy, I don't know what does. His name isn't Cole Hamels, but instead it's Scott Kazmir. And he's looking to help a struggling rotation today (or in July). --Devan Fink
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A first in Major League Baseball will occur on Wednesday.
The Orioles and the White Sox will play at 2:05 P.M. Eastern tomorrow in Baltimore at Camden Yards. The catch? There won't be a single soul in the crowd. The attendance will be zero. The Orioles announced on Tuesday some schedule changes after prolonged protests in the city have caused havoc and are a threat to public safety. The first schedule change? It was that the Orioles and White Sox game will be closed to the public tomorrow. There is no official word as to whether the game will be televised. According to John Thorn, the official historian for Major League Baseball, this will be the first Major League game with no attendance. The previous low came in 1882, with six fans coming to the September 28 game between the host Worchester Ruby Legs and the Troy Trojans. A minor league team known as the Charleston Riverdogs kept fans outside the stadium for five innings in 2002 to try to set the record. In 2011, during Hurricane Irene, an unofficial headcount showed 347 fans in the crowd in the first game of a doubleheader between the Marlins and Reds in Miami, but the announced attendance was 22,505 as a combination for both games. Other low attendance games include an April 17, 1979 Athletics-Brewers game with only 653 fans in attendance. That is considered one of the smallest games in baseball's common era. The Orioles and White Sox will be playing in an historic game on Wednesday. I'm exited to see what happens. --Devan Fink When Jon Lester was closing in on signing, the speculation was astounding. Some were believing that the Red Sox and Cubs were finalists, others were saying Cubs and Giants, with some even saying Dodgers and Red Sox. The Lester ordeal was a real eye-opener, showing how much social media has changed the way we get and distribute baseball news. Without further ado, here are the winners and losers from the Winter Meetings.
Chicago Cubs - Winner When Lester signed with the Cubs, we knew that they had achieved their ultimate goal of the offseason. And now, they are among the best in the National League, with a chance to make the playoffs for the first time since the 2008 postseason. Jon Lester is that type of player. He is the guy you want in a Game 7, a postseason clincher, or any other big game. No, I'm not talking about James Shields, I'm talking about Lester, who has a 2.57 ERA in the playoffs, as a two-time World Series champion. But it isn't just Lester that makes the Cubs the winners of this Winter Meetings. They made one other move, much more strategic and a lot less prevalent, acquiring Miguel Montero from the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Cubs have needed catching, finishing second in the Russell Martin bidding, and the acquisition of Montero fits the bill. He's under team control for three more years and posted a 1.2 fWAR in 2014. The Cubs can surround Montero and Lester with their prospects and have a shot at the postseason. Chicago White Sox - Winner Move to the south side of Chicago, where we find our other Winter Meetings winner. The Chicago White Sox played both the free agent and trade markets well. They acquired Jeff Samardzija from the Athletics in a six-player deal and now they boast a rotation of Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, Samardzija, and Jon Danks. Samardzija makes the White Sox rotation look like a contender's rotation, and now their team looks like it could be a contender. The White Sox also added David Robertson to their relief corps that were highly inexperienced last season. Him and Zach Duke represent their transactions of relief pitchers this offseason, which helps to evolve a White Sox bullpen that previously didn't have anyone over the age of 27 in it. Duke and Roberston add experience and talent to a now-interesting Chicago team. Los Angeles Dodgers - Winner Dee Gordon, Howie Kendrick, Matt Kemp, Yasmani Grandal, Andrew Heaney, Enrique Hernandez, Brandon McCarthy, and Jimmy Rollins. What do all those names have in common? They were all involved in either a trade or a signing with the Dodgers. President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman kempt (sorry, bad pun) himself busy during these meetings, wheeling and dealing with the Phillies, Marlins, Angels, and Padres. I'm not even sure who is on their roster anymore. What makes the Dodgers a winner, you ask? They were able to unload one of their big-time outfielders (Kemp), while getting a young, promising catcher, something they needed, in return. They traded Dee Gordon, who posted a poor .648 OPS in the second half for Andrew Heaney, Chris Hatcher, and Austin Barnes. Heaney's career with the Dodgers didn't even last 12 hours, as they filled their hole at second base with an even better option than Gordon in Howie Kendrick, who, at 31, is among one of the better all-around second baseman in baseball. Oh yeah, they also signed Brandon McCarthy and traded for Jimmy Rollins, too. The Dodgers upgraded their outfield, catcher, shortstop, and rotation all in the matter of 24 hours. Miami Marlins - Winner Once the Miami Marlins signed Giancarlo Stanton to that big $325 million extension, I really wasn't sure if the Marlins thought they could be contenders, or if they just wanted to keep that gem they had in Stanton on their roster. After these Winter Meetings, I can definitely see that the former is true. They acquired Dee Gordon and Mat Latos at the Meetings, and while someone could argue that they gave up a lot, they are finally showing that they want to go all-in in 2015. Or at least have a shot at contending. The Marlins starting eight looks like this: Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna, Giancarlo Stanton, Casey McGehee, Adieny Hechavarria, Dee Gordon, Garrett Jones, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Their rotation? Jose Fernandez, Henderson Alvarez, Mat Latos, Nathan Evoldi, and Jarred Cosart. Now you tell me, do you think the Marlins are contenders? I would say definitely. By acquiring both Gordon and Latos at the Meetings, Miami ownership proved to the baseball world that they want and are wiling to play meaningful baseball for the first time since 2003. San Francisco Giants - Loser I'm still confused as to what the Giants really want to accomplish in 2015. The best move for San Francisco at the Winter Meetings was getting Madison Bumgarner on the cover of Sports Illustrated after winning the Sportsman of the Year award. In all seriousness, I think you have to attribute some of the Giants' offseason success, or lack there of, to just plain old bad luck. They finished third for Lester, second for Yasmany Tomas and Pablo Sandoval. But any good Giants fan would tell you that they finished first in the most important category. I'm still trying to understand where the Giants plan on spending the money that they were planning to give Lester, Tomas, or Sandoval. Could they go after a guy like James Shields? That would be interesting. Whatever the case, the Giants did not get better at the Winter Meetings. I guess that means San Francisco fans should just start watching the team again in 2016, the next even year. Baltimore Orioles - Loser The Orioles have lost Nelson Cruz, Nick Markakis, Andrew Miller, and now perhaps their general manager, Dan Duquette. It was rumored last weekend that Duquette might soon be on the move to Toronto to become the Blue Jays' CEO, but it was later reported that the Blue Jays would reconsider until after the 2015 season. Regardless, Duquette has to deal with a mess in Baltimore. Three months after winning the AL East, they lose Cruz and Markakis, two of their top performers from the season. The Orioles usually stay relatively quiet until later into the offseason anyway, so they might be able to salvage a good piece of what they lost with mid-tier free agents. But for now, their Winter Meetings weren't good, and they need to find a plan to get back to the top of the American League East, a division where the Blue Jays and Red Sox have already gotten better this offseason. --Devan Fink James Shields is the third of the "big three" starting pitchers (Max Scherzer, Jon Lester) to be a free agent this offseason. Shields, off of a World Series appearances with the Royals, might just be the most affordable of the big three due to his age. That doesn't mean that he won't be inexpensive by any means.
The 32-year-old Shields was drafted in the 16th round of the 2002 MLB Draft by the then-Tampa Bay Devil Rays. He worked his way through the minors nicely, breaking out especially in 2005. Shields came up to the Rays in 2006 and worked his first 152 games (151 starts) over the next five years. He was an average pitcher -- above average at best -- working his way to a 4.25 ERA in 977 2/3 innings pitched. His 2011 season changed his entire career. Shields went 16-12 with a 2.82 ERA and a 134 ERA+, also averaging 3.46 strikeouts per walk in 249 1/3 innings. He led the American League with an astounding 11 complete games and 4 shutouts. He was shipped to Kansas City in 2012 in the deal that moved Wil Myers to Tampa. Since, he's been with the Royals. This past season, Shields went 14-8 with a 3.21 ERA and a 124 ERA+, averaging 4.09 strikeouts per walk over his 227 innings pitched. He was a 3.7 fWAR player this past year. The Royals decided to offer Shields a one-year, $15.3 million qualifying offer, but he has yet to make a decision. Shields just isn't as good as Lester or Scherzer. Those are the facts. He's also older, which means that his contract won't be as extravagant, nor for as many years. Currently interested, as previously reported, in Shields are the Yankees, Red Sox, and Cubs (obvious ones), but also the Blue Jays, Orioles, and Marlins. It's hard to gauge the interest of the latter three teams right now, but I have to assume they're in due to a smaller contract size. Shields is a really good pitcher, but this postseason he didn't help his stock in pitching well down the stretch. Lester posted an ERA around 2.6 in close to his last 30 postseason innings and Scherzer has an ERA around 3.6 over his last 30 postseason innings. Shields has a 7.20 ERA over his last 30 postseason innings. This has to be taken into consideration for teams wanting to sign him, for sure. This contract is a tough one to peg for me, but I really believe that the Cubs are going all in this offseason. Whether this means they are going to sign Lester, Shields, or both, I do not know, and I probably won't be able to tell you until both of them sign. My personal opinion is that they will sign Lester, but I'm not sure about Shields. But it's really hard to peg a contract for him in general. So, I have James Shields signing with the Chicago Cubs on a five-year, $80 million contract. --Devan F. The Baltimore Orioles are in position to make the playoffs for the first time since 2012 and win their division for the first time since 1997. The O's hold a seven game lead over the second place New York Yankees, as their 75-55 record is third best in the American League, behind the two AL West powerhouses in the Los Angeles Angels and Oakland Athletics. Could Baltimore perhaps make a postseason run that takes them to the World Series for the first time since winning it in 1983? Let's take a look at the Orioles as a team. Their pitching staff has been among the worst in the Major Leagues, as the rotation has contributed the seventh-worst fWAR (6.9) among all the rotations in baseball. The staff has the second-worst xFIP (4.23) to the Texas Rangers, but their ERA (3.86) is middle of the pack, suggesting that they have been susceptible to some very good luck. Back on July 31st, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reported that the Orioles inquired on Mets pitcher Bartolo Colon. Colon has since cleared revocable trade waivers, allowing him to be dealt to any team. The Orioles should make a run for Colon, as his ERA, FIP, and xFIP are all very solid this season. He could definitely add to their rotation that currently includes the likes of Chris Tillman, Wei-Yin Chen, Bud Norris, Miguel Gonzalez, Ubaldo Jimenez, and Kevin Gausman. The Orioles pitching staff looks like it could be an issue during the playoffs. Acquiring Colon would add more certainty to the rotation, but would Baltimore really be interested in paying him $11 million next season at 42-years-old? It might be the only way to go deep into the playoffs. If you take a look at some of the rotations of competing teams, you see that the Orioles are at a real liability. The Tigers, Angels, Athletics, Mariners, and Royals all have better rotation ERAs than Baltimore. Those are the teams that have the best chance of keeping the Orioles from going deep into the postseason, let alone making the World Series. As we have seen in many other cases, pitching is very important to a team, but having a balance may be even more important. On the offensive side, the Angels, Tigers, and Athletics all have a better weighted runs created plus (wRC+) than the Orioles. This stat measures how many runs created a player, or in this case a team, is better above league-average, with each point above 100 equaling a percent. The Orioles have a 102 wRC+ as a team, meaning that they create about two percent more runs than the "league-average" team. The Orioles offense has been the main cog of their success, but seeing how it stacks up against other teams just makes them look like even more of a long shot in the postseason. They rely on the home run more than any other American League team, and as often as a clutch home run comes, another clutch home run does not happen. Unlike the other teams that are looking to get far, the Orioles are placing their chips on something that is a lot harder to predict. Some days may be your lucky days in terms of home runs, while others just may not. Even if the Orioles do get to October, cool air is not good for home runs. It keeps the ball down and inside the ballpark, which helps pitchers, not their counterparts. FanGraphs.com gives the Orioles the fourth-best chance (of American League teams) to make the World Series, believing that they have a 17.3% chance of winning the American League Championship Series. FanGraphs says that the Angels (22%), Athletics (21%), and Tigers (20.1%) have a better chance than the Orioles to appear in the World Series. That seems very spot on. The Orioles seem like a team that is taking too many risks this season. It is hard to see them in the World Series, as their depth, pitching staff, and the fact that they rely on home runs are all issues that other teams just do not have. Baltimore is a very good team and while they do have good chances this year, I just do not believe that they have what it takes to win the American League. |