Daniel Murphy has "made himself millions" with his postseason performance, said one scout to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.
Murphy has been the Mets' unsung hero this October, homering for his fifth time tonight in the playoffs. Already a hot topic is whether the Mets should extend Murphy a qualifying offer, a one-year, $15.8 million deal. If he declines the offer, then the Mets get a first round draft pick if he signs elsewhere. My thought is that if he accepts the offer (still no player has), the Mets could handle the salary on their payroll for just one season, even if Murphy is $2-4 million overpaid. Murphy, traditionally the Mets' second baseman, also provides a plus with his versatility, also being able to play third and first base if needed. That should also help his value, mostly due to the fact that that could bring more teams into play for his services. Using MLB Trade Rumors' transaction tracker, I have determined what I believe could be considered a good, comparable contract to what Murphy could get this offseason. Nick Swisher: Four-years, $56 million ($14 million AAV) Chase Headley: Four-years, $52 million ($13 million AAV) Aramis Ramirez: Three-years, $36 million ($12 million AAV) Omar Infante: Four-years, $30.25 million ($7.56 million AAV) It's really hard for me to imagine Murphy getting Infante-type money, especially considering the lack of depth of second basemen on the free agent market. Generally speaking, Murphy is a guy who could fit in the $10-15 million AAV range, depending on how well teams value his power. One scout told Joel Sherman of the New York Post that Murphy “has been on everything, pulled for power more than I can ever remember and made me start to think if you put him in the right stadium would some of all those doubles he hits every year turn into 20-plus homers annually?” Murphy, statistically-speaking, has already been an above-average player regardless of his home run totals. According to FanGraphs, Murphy has posted Wins Above Replacement totals of 3.1, 2.5, and 2.5 over the past three years, respectively. If a team believed that they could be buying into Murphy at a minimum of 5-6 Wins Above Replacement over the next three to four seasons and a maximum (depending on his power totals) of a 9-11 Wins Above Replacement, we could possibly see Murphy's free agent contract balloon above Headley's and Swisher's. With everything lining up the way it has been, coupled with the fact that Murphy has been consistently solid over the past three seasons, he could be in for a fairly large payday at the end of this season. My prediction is that Murphy signs a four-year, $60 million contract as a first-time free agent this offseason. So what does this all have to do with the Mets? I personally think this means they should extend Murphy a qualifying offer this offseason. If he re-signs the deal, they could be paying a tad bit more than he would be getting as a free agent for his production totals. However, it's just a one-year deal. If he declines (which is still way more likelier), the Mets can guarantee themselves another first round pick in next year's draft. Decisions like these can make or break front offices. We will have to see how it all plays out, but the winner of these playoffs might not be the Mets, but it will surely be Daniel Murphy. --Devan Fink
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Chase Utley's slide in the seventh inning was probably not the cleanest.
He slid hard into Ruben Tejada behind second base at Dodgers' Stadium to break up a double play, injuring the Mets' shortstop. The game-tying run scored.
Neither Utley nor Tejada touched the bag at second base, however. But after a delay and a review, Utley was ruled safe. The umpires determined that because Utley was ruled out initially, he never was required to touch second base. So by overturning the umpire's call there, Utley was safe. The "neighborhood play" was also not in effect there. A shortstop or second baseman does not have to touch the base in an instance of staying out of the runners' way. If a neighborhood play occurs, and the middle infielder gets close enough to the base so that the umpire thinks the runner is out, he will be called out. These types of plays are not reviewable. In this instance, however, Major League Baseball determined that because the throw was off the bag to begin with, and Tejada having to make that spin, that was a force play and not a neighborhood play, making it a force play, which is reviewable. And because Utley never touched second base, he was called safe. Regardless, the slide was dirty. It doesn't look like Utley even tried to slide into the bag, and stuck his hand out to make it appear like he wanted to get into the base. But by taking out Tejada, especially with a possibly playoff-changing injury in a broken right fibula, Utley's slide, or tackle as some like to refer it, was not clean. MLB Rule 6.01(6) states as follows: If, in the judgment of the umpire, a base runner willfully and deliberately interferes with a batted ball or a fielder in the act of fielding a batted ball with the obvious intent to break up a double play, the ball is dead. The umpire shall call the runner out for interference and also call out the batter-runner because of the action of his teammate. In no event may bases be run or runs scored because of such action by a runner. If MLB enforced that rule, Utley should have been out by interference and no run would have scored. However, it isn't enforced like it should be. Joe Torre, MLB's Chief Baseball Officer, noted that these types of plays will be under consideration for a rule change. Additionally, MLB will try and experiment with them in the Arizona Fall League. "...in the Fall League we're having the players work on sliding directly into the bag, just to see how that works and stuff," Torre said in a press conference. The Dodgers went on to win the game 5-2 and the Mets' regular shortstop Tejada is out for the rest of the postseason. This NLDS series took a huge swing just because of a slide into second base. --Devan Fink
The 2015 regular season has come to an end. Twenty teams went home packing for the offseason today, ending what has been a long road of just over six months of baseball. With the Cover Those Bases season awards, I am selecting who best made the 2015 season a great one. Without further ado, here are my selections.
The Mets, Matt Harvey, and his agent Scott Boras are in a bit of a kerfuffle.
In short: Boras believes that Dr. James Andrews, Harvey's surgeon for his Tommy John surgery, gave Harvey a strict 180 innings pitched limit this season. The Mets, however, say that Andrews did not give them a specific number. And Harvey himself says he'll be shut down at 180. The reason this is important: Harvey is at 166 1/3 innings pitched, meaning, if in fact he will be shut down at 180 innings, he only has 13 2/3 innings left this season, or about two starts. With the Mets making a serious playoff push, this could mean they could be without one of their top pitchers during the final stretch and possibly into the postseason. Whew. That was a lot, wasn't it? There are many ways to look at this. But I'm going to say this: evaluating Matt Harvey based only upon innings pitched is not the way to go in this day and age, especially with all the PITCHf/x data we have at our fingertips. Instead, Harvey should be looked upon by pitches thrown, types of pitches thrown and how many of each, and the leverages he's been pitching in. Not all innings are alike. Some innings could be an eight or ten pitch inning; others can be a twenty or more pitch inning. So, looking at Harvey through pitches thrown instead of innings pitched. So, without further ado, let's do just that. Harvey, this season, has thrown 2,459 pitches. Over his 166 1/3 innings, this means that Harvey is averaging just 14.78 pitches per inning, which ranks 74th-fewest among starting pitchers in the Major Leagues, according to teamrankings.com. In the rankings, Harvey is around some of the best pitchers in the league. Zack Grienke ranks just behind him at 75th. Dallas Keuchel is behind Grienke at 76. And Max Scherzer, Corey Kluber, and Max Scherzer come in at Nos. 77, 78, and 79, respectively. Felix Hernandez, Madison Bumgarner, Johnny Cueto, and Carlos Carrasco are the pitchers above him. Basically, he's right around the best of the best. The explanation for this is simple. The more economical a pitcher is, the further they will be able to pitch into games and effectively do so. Before his surgery in 2013, Harvey again was throwing among the fewest pitches in the big leagues (70th fewest out of 82 qualified starters). So what was the real reason for his UCL tearing and how can the Mets keep him from further damaging their prized righty? It's really hard to know. It could be due to the volume of off-speed pitches he's throwing. It could be due to leverage and the amount of stress he's pitching through (i.e. a bases loaded situation is more stressful than a bases empty). It could really be anything, luck included, and that's what makes keeping arms healthy a truly imperfect science. There's one thing that the Mets cannot do. And that's shutting Harvey down through innings pitched. What they should do is monitor him on a start-to-start basis, making sure his fastball velocity is still where it should be, that he's getting the right movement on his pitches, and that he's still being effective. That's the best advice I can give. --Devan Fink
Using Baseball Prospectus' playoff odds, you should be able to tell who has the best chance of doing just that. Teams really should take those odds to determine whether they should be buyers and sellers because more often than not, they are right.
After games being played on July 6 last year, five of the ten eventual postseason teams had a 80 percent chance of making the playoffs or better. Every team that did have an 80 percent or greater chance of making the playoffs on this date last year did. The team with the highest percent chance to make the playoffs on July 6 that ultimately didn't was the Milwaukee Brewers, who had a 71 percent chance to punch their ticket, but collapsed down the stretch and failed to make it. Only three (Orioles, Royals, and Pirates) had less than a 50 percent chance of making the playoffs following action on July 6. By July 31, the Orioles were up to a 71 percent chance, the Royals were at a 17 percent chance, and the Pirates were at a 46 percent chance. Knowing this, I will use Baseball Prospectus' current postseason predictions to determine who should buy and who should sell at the 2015 Trade Deadline. All In (85% or greater)
St. Louis Cardinals (99.3%)
There's no reason why the Cardinals, who own MLB's best record at 54-28, should consider selling. In fact, Baseball Prospectus says that they have a 99.3 percent chance of making the playoffs, leaving just a very small chance for an extreme collapse. If the Cardinals play just .500 ball the rest of the way, that would put them on pace for 94 wins, which would definitely put them in prime position to punch their ticket to the postseason. The Cardinals have no reason to do anything but buy. Los Angeles Dodgers (92.9%) The Dodgers have the second-highest playoff percentage in the league, and nothing suggests that this team won't buy at the trade deadline. I predicted them to go out and get Johnny Cueto, perhaps the best pitcher available not named Cole Hamels. The Dodgers are always willing to spend money and prospects to make their team better and can easily justify doing so at the deadline. Washington Nationals (85.6%) The Nationals have arguably not played their best baseball yet, but still have an 85.6 percent chance to make the playoffs. They could use some reinforcements in their bullpen, but most of the additions the Nationals will be getting will be players coming back from injury, such as Jayson Werth, Ryan Zimmerman, and Stephen Strasburg. They may not need to make a ton of moves in July, but if they do, they have good reason to do so. Houston Astros (84.7%) The Astros have already shown interest in some of the top pitchers that will be available, and Baseball Prospectus' playoff odds completely backs that up. Houston's playoff percentage, at 84.7 percent, is so close to 85 percent that I had to shove them into this category. The Astros have showed that while they are a bit of a surprise, they still can win ballgames and do it over a period of time. The Astros by no means are "pretenders," as they have been able to hold a comfortable AL West lead since late April. Should be buyers (70-85%)
Pittsburgh Pirates (81.3%), Chicago Cubs (73.1%)
The Pirates and Cubs have a case of some serious bad luck. They are playing in the National League's toughest division and would be either leading or close to leading any other division in the league. The only reason I'm wary of either of these teams buying at the deadline is because they are not division leaders and have more of a chance to collapse and fall out of the playoff race altogether. Unless they believe they have a real shot at the Cardinals (which it appears they don't), they shouldn't completely unload their farm systems to go out and get the best guy on the market. Kansas City Royals (75.3%) Of the three teams in this category, I am most comfortable with the Royals buying at the trade deadline due to the fact that they lead their division by a comfortable margin and need just one or two pieces to really put the pressure on the rest of the division. All signs point to the Royals making the playoffs again this year, so I would go ahead and pencil them in as buyers at the deadline. Justifiable (30-70%)
Los Angeles Angels (64.8%)
The Angels are in a good position right now. They are playing good baseball and have shown the need for an upgrade in left field. Of the teams listed in this section, I truly believe they are the best and most complete team, so therefore they should be buyers at the deadline. The Angels could use some rotation help as well, but if they patch up a few spots, they will get into the postseason. My verdict? They should be buyers. AL East: New York Yankees (59.4%), Toronto Blue Jays (39.6%), Tampa Bay Rays (34.9%) The American League East division is lumped together because the division is so muddled and close that really anyone could win it. Baseball Prospectus' simulations give the Yankees the best chance to go to the playoffs out of that division, but with some rotation help, the Blue Jays are the division's best team. The Yankees and Rays should stand pat or make small moves at the deadline, while the Blue Jays should go out and make a splash for a rotation piece. Detroit Tigers (36.7%) With Miguel Cabrera being sidelined with his hamstring injury, I'm going to pencil the Tigers in as should be sellers, but as this team continues to try and make a run once again, they will find themselves trying to buy. The Tigers are heading towards a Phillies-esque fall, and if they don't realize that soon, it could only get worse if they decide to buy at the trade deadline in hopes for one last run at the World Series. Maybe/Stand Pat (20-30%)
New York Mets (28.9%)
Even if the Mets added an offensive piece, I don't think that would be enough to get them to the playoffs this season. With that said, however, I could see them dealing for a guy with more than one season of control, as their young and talented pitching staff comes into their own. The Mets couldn't justify buying for a rental player, but a guy who is at least signed through 2016 could make sense. Baltimore Orioles (28.7%) The Baltimore Orioles have a ton of free agents at the end of the season that they probably should move. The Orioles could be one of those teams that tries to get 25-man roster guys with more years of team control in return. The Orioles could be a team that buys and sells at the trade deadline, and I would be fine with that. San Francisco Giants (22.9%) It's an odd year. The Giants aren't good enough to win the NL West, and considering that they have to deal with the Cubs and Pirates for the Wild Card, it will be tough for them to really make a run into the postseason. However, they still have a good core group of guys and the team has proved me wrong before. They probably should stand pat. Shouldn't buy (Less than 20%)
Minnesota Twins (18.2%)
The Twins just aren't that good. Sure, they had a good run earlier this season, but all the numbers suggest that they were going to fall out of first in the AL Central. The Twins should really try and go for 2016, when some of their rookies will be more polished. Texas Rangers (15.0%) While the Rangers shouldn't buy, they probably will, as I consider them to be in a similar boat as the Tigers are in. The Rangers could legitimately contend, but they would more than a couple of upgrades, to the point where they probably shouldn't go for it this season. Cleveland Indians (13.5%) The Indians were a popular postseason pick prior to this season, but Baseball Prospectus' simulations show that they would need some serious luck to actually get there. The Indians shouldn't sell any pieces other than the impending free agents because my gut says that they will be back in the postseason sooner than later. Boston Red Sox (11.8%) The Red Sox are in a tough position right now. It might not be time for a fire sale quite yet, but it's definitely not time to go out and try and contend this season. Seattle Mariners (7.0%) The Mariners have had some issues staying in the race this season, and while they shouldn't sell off their entire team, they really shouldn't be buyers either. Oakland Athletics (6.8%) The Athletics are already shopping their pieces and it looks like they will be sellers. Arizona Diamondbacks (6.4%) The Diamondbacks are a team that should stand pat. They still have pieces to contend in the near future and as their pitching improves with guys coming back from injury, they could be a legitimate contender coming 2016. Atlanta Braves (3.8%) The Braves, especially in the offseason, have committed to becoming a selling team. They don't have any exciting pieces, but even though they have kind of surprised, they should by no means buy. Chicago White Sox (3.2%) The White Sox are in a tough position. They reportedly won't have a fire sale, which makes sense considering how much money they spent in free agency, but they need to get rid of Jeff Samardzija and still be planning to try again in 2016. San Diego Padres (2.7%) The Padres could buy at the deadline, but in all reality, they shouldn't. They've got some important games coming up that they need to win if people start seriously seeing them as contenders. Once again, they are proving that the winners of the offseason don't necessarily win during the season. Miami Marlins (1.6%) The Marlins shouldn't go into a fire sale, but Mat Latos, Dan Haren, Brad Hand, and other free agents at the end of the season should be gone. Cincinnati Reds (1.1%) The Reds have Johnny Cueto, Mike Leake, and possibly Aroldis Chapman available, and while they won't sell until after they host the All-Star Game, I expect it to come, as it should. Colorado Rockies (0.2%) I'd pull the trigger and deal Troy Tulowitzki. It's time for a real change in Colorado if they want to be relevant down the road. Milwaukee Brewers (0.2%) The Brewers should enter into a fire sale. Philadelphia Phillies (0.0%) Sellers. Now, these rankings and categories don't mean that each of these teams will do as I advise. Their postseason percentages could change and perhaps an addition is all they need to do that. However, Baseball Prospectus' odds are very accurate and should not be taken lightly. Teams really should use them to determine whether they could justify buying at the deadline. --Devan Fink |