Using Baseball Prospectus' playoff odds, you should be able to tell who has the best chance of doing just that. Teams really should take those odds to determine whether they should be buyers and sellers because more often than not, they are right.
After games being played on July 6 last year, five of the ten eventual postseason teams had a 80 percent chance of making the playoffs or better. Every team that did have an 80 percent or greater chance of making the playoffs on this date last year did. The team with the highest percent chance to make the playoffs on July 6 that ultimately didn't was the Milwaukee Brewers, who had a 71 percent chance to punch their ticket, but collapsed down the stretch and failed to make it. Only three (Orioles, Royals, and Pirates) had less than a 50 percent chance of making the playoffs following action on July 6. By July 31, the Orioles were up to a 71 percent chance, the Royals were at a 17 percent chance, and the Pirates were at a 46 percent chance. Knowing this, I will use Baseball Prospectus' current postseason predictions to determine who should buy and who should sell at the 2015 Trade Deadline. All In (85% or greater)
St. Louis Cardinals (99.3%)
There's no reason why the Cardinals, who own MLB's best record at 54-28, should consider selling. In fact, Baseball Prospectus says that they have a 99.3 percent chance of making the playoffs, leaving just a very small chance for an extreme collapse. If the Cardinals play just .500 ball the rest of the way, that would put them on pace for 94 wins, which would definitely put them in prime position to punch their ticket to the postseason. The Cardinals have no reason to do anything but buy. Los Angeles Dodgers (92.9%) The Dodgers have the second-highest playoff percentage in the league, and nothing suggests that this team won't buy at the trade deadline. I predicted them to go out and get Johnny Cueto, perhaps the best pitcher available not named Cole Hamels. The Dodgers are always willing to spend money and prospects to make their team better and can easily justify doing so at the deadline. Washington Nationals (85.6%) The Nationals have arguably not played their best baseball yet, but still have an 85.6 percent chance to make the playoffs. They could use some reinforcements in their bullpen, but most of the additions the Nationals will be getting will be players coming back from injury, such as Jayson Werth, Ryan Zimmerman, and Stephen Strasburg. They may not need to make a ton of moves in July, but if they do, they have good reason to do so. Houston Astros (84.7%) The Astros have already shown interest in some of the top pitchers that will be available, and Baseball Prospectus' playoff odds completely backs that up. Houston's playoff percentage, at 84.7 percent, is so close to 85 percent that I had to shove them into this category. The Astros have showed that while they are a bit of a surprise, they still can win ballgames and do it over a period of time. The Astros by no means are "pretenders," as they have been able to hold a comfortable AL West lead since late April. Should be buyers (70-85%)
Pittsburgh Pirates (81.3%), Chicago Cubs (73.1%)
The Pirates and Cubs have a case of some serious bad luck. They are playing in the National League's toughest division and would be either leading or close to leading any other division in the league. The only reason I'm wary of either of these teams buying at the deadline is because they are not division leaders and have more of a chance to collapse and fall out of the playoff race altogether. Unless they believe they have a real shot at the Cardinals (which it appears they don't), they shouldn't completely unload their farm systems to go out and get the best guy on the market. Kansas City Royals (75.3%) Of the three teams in this category, I am most comfortable with the Royals buying at the trade deadline due to the fact that they lead their division by a comfortable margin and need just one or two pieces to really put the pressure on the rest of the division. All signs point to the Royals making the playoffs again this year, so I would go ahead and pencil them in as buyers at the deadline. Justifiable (30-70%)
Los Angeles Angels (64.8%)
The Angels are in a good position right now. They are playing good baseball and have shown the need for an upgrade in left field. Of the teams listed in this section, I truly believe they are the best and most complete team, so therefore they should be buyers at the deadline. The Angels could use some rotation help as well, but if they patch up a few spots, they will get into the postseason. My verdict? They should be buyers. AL East: New York Yankees (59.4%), Toronto Blue Jays (39.6%), Tampa Bay Rays (34.9%) The American League East division is lumped together because the division is so muddled and close that really anyone could win it. Baseball Prospectus' simulations give the Yankees the best chance to go to the playoffs out of that division, but with some rotation help, the Blue Jays are the division's best team. The Yankees and Rays should stand pat or make small moves at the deadline, while the Blue Jays should go out and make a splash for a rotation piece. Detroit Tigers (36.7%) With Miguel Cabrera being sidelined with his hamstring injury, I'm going to pencil the Tigers in as should be sellers, but as this team continues to try and make a run once again, they will find themselves trying to buy. The Tigers are heading towards a Phillies-esque fall, and if they don't realize that soon, it could only get worse if they decide to buy at the trade deadline in hopes for one last run at the World Series. Maybe/Stand Pat (20-30%)
New York Mets (28.9%)
Even if the Mets added an offensive piece, I don't think that would be enough to get them to the playoffs this season. With that said, however, I could see them dealing for a guy with more than one season of control, as their young and talented pitching staff comes into their own. The Mets couldn't justify buying for a rental player, but a guy who is at least signed through 2016 could make sense. Baltimore Orioles (28.7%) The Baltimore Orioles have a ton of free agents at the end of the season that they probably should move. The Orioles could be one of those teams that tries to get 25-man roster guys with more years of team control in return. The Orioles could be a team that buys and sells at the trade deadline, and I would be fine with that. San Francisco Giants (22.9%) It's an odd year. The Giants aren't good enough to win the NL West, and considering that they have to deal with the Cubs and Pirates for the Wild Card, it will be tough for them to really make a run into the postseason. However, they still have a good core group of guys and the team has proved me wrong before. They probably should stand pat. Shouldn't buy (Less than 20%)
Minnesota Twins (18.2%)
The Twins just aren't that good. Sure, they had a good run earlier this season, but all the numbers suggest that they were going to fall out of first in the AL Central. The Twins should really try and go for 2016, when some of their rookies will be more polished. Texas Rangers (15.0%) While the Rangers shouldn't buy, they probably will, as I consider them to be in a similar boat as the Tigers are in. The Rangers could legitimately contend, but they would more than a couple of upgrades, to the point where they probably shouldn't go for it this season. Cleveland Indians (13.5%) The Indians were a popular postseason pick prior to this season, but Baseball Prospectus' simulations show that they would need some serious luck to actually get there. The Indians shouldn't sell any pieces other than the impending free agents because my gut says that they will be back in the postseason sooner than later. Boston Red Sox (11.8%) The Red Sox are in a tough position right now. It might not be time for a fire sale quite yet, but it's definitely not time to go out and try and contend this season. Seattle Mariners (7.0%) The Mariners have had some issues staying in the race this season, and while they shouldn't sell off their entire team, they really shouldn't be buyers either. Oakland Athletics (6.8%) The Athletics are already shopping their pieces and it looks like they will be sellers. Arizona Diamondbacks (6.4%) The Diamondbacks are a team that should stand pat. They still have pieces to contend in the near future and as their pitching improves with guys coming back from injury, they could be a legitimate contender coming 2016. Atlanta Braves (3.8%) The Braves, especially in the offseason, have committed to becoming a selling team. They don't have any exciting pieces, but even though they have kind of surprised, they should by no means buy. Chicago White Sox (3.2%) The White Sox are in a tough position. They reportedly won't have a fire sale, which makes sense considering how much money they spent in free agency, but they need to get rid of Jeff Samardzija and still be planning to try again in 2016. San Diego Padres (2.7%) The Padres could buy at the deadline, but in all reality, they shouldn't. They've got some important games coming up that they need to win if people start seriously seeing them as contenders. Once again, they are proving that the winners of the offseason don't necessarily win during the season. Miami Marlins (1.6%) The Marlins shouldn't go into a fire sale, but Mat Latos, Dan Haren, Brad Hand, and other free agents at the end of the season should be gone. Cincinnati Reds (1.1%) The Reds have Johnny Cueto, Mike Leake, and possibly Aroldis Chapman available, and while they won't sell until after they host the All-Star Game, I expect it to come, as it should. Colorado Rockies (0.2%) I'd pull the trigger and deal Troy Tulowitzki. It's time for a real change in Colorado if they want to be relevant down the road. Milwaukee Brewers (0.2%) The Brewers should enter into a fire sale. Philadelphia Phillies (0.0%) Sellers. Now, these rankings and categories don't mean that each of these teams will do as I advise. Their postseason percentages could change and perhaps an addition is all they need to do that. However, Baseball Prospectus' odds are very accurate and should not be taken lightly. Teams really should use them to determine whether they could justify buying at the deadline. --Devan Fink
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The Trade Deadline season has began. With the deadline just 30 days away, teams are going to be moving players and prospects at extremely fast rates, trying to either build for the future or improve their team for the stretch run.
Here are six of the most notable players that could be moved at the deadline and predictions for where they will be headed on July 31. Cole Hamels, Texas Rangers Hamels is obviously the biggest name available at the deadline with the highest chance of being moved. Considering the sad state of the Phillies, Hamels has an extremely high chance of being on another team on August 1. The Texas Rangers represent a strong fit for Cole Hamels, as they have showed interest in him. Their rotation this season has been good at run prevention, but the analytic stats show that they're not as good as advertised. They view Hamels as an elite upgrade worth getting, and they seem like the team that would pay GM Ruben Amaro Jr.'s price--or at least close to it--in order to get him. Other possible fits: Houston Astros, Los Angeles Dodgers, St. Louis Cardinals, New York Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays Jonathan Papelbon, Toronto Blue Jays Papelbon, like Hamels, will be another key part of the Phillies' trade deadline season. His contract is more of an obstacle, though, so his deal will likely take longer to progress while all the details are hammered out. The Blue Jays have had plenty of interest in acquiring Papelbon throughout the season and dating all the way back to the offseason. The contract has been the only thing keeping them from actually pulling the trigger, it seems. As the Phillies become more motivated to move their players, asking prices and the amount of contract to be picked up should become lower. The Blue Jays will get this deal done. Other possible fits: Washington Nationals, Chicago Cubs Jeff Samardzija, Houston Astros The Astros are going to make a move for a starting pitcher this deadline season, but it remains unclear as to which pitcher they will most heavily pursue. Samardzija looks like a solid fit in Houston. His run prevention numbers have not been great, but the Astros are a team that would definitely look past that, perhaps even viewing that as a way to get Samardzija on the cheap. Samardzija's analytical stats show that his ERA is about a run inflated (check this!!), due to poor luck and defense on the White Sox' part. With the Astros, Samardzija would be moved for the third time in two years, but would fit their system much better, with what is likely to be improved defense. Samardzija's the type of guy the Astros want. Other possible fits: Kansas City Royals, Minnesota Twins, Los Angeles Dodgers, Toronto Blue Jays, New York Yankees Johnny Cueto, Los Angeles Dodgers The Dodgers seemingly never have enough pitching, and the same goes for this year, as the team has lost starters Hyun-jin Ryu and Brandon McCarthy for the entire year. The Reds are likely going to sell after they host the All-Star Game, and when they do so, Johnny Cueto will be the first to go. Cueto's in the last year of his contract, so he will get an opportunity to contend throughout the rest of the season and then get a huge contact for 2016 and beyond. When the Dodgers get Ryu and McCarthy back next year (check to make sure they're under contract), Cueto will be gone, but in the short term, he's definitely a move worth making and one that they will ultimately make. Other possible fits: Houston Astros, St. Louis Cardinals, New York Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays Ben Zobrist, Chicago Cubs Zobrist has already been with Cubs' manager Joe Maddon in a clubhouse when the two were with the Tampa Bay Rays together. The Cubs may want to get an upgrade in left field, where Chris Coglan currently resides. Maddon also understands the importance of having a super utility man down the stretch, as that could go a long way if a player gets injured or needs a day off. Zobrist is pretty much a starting-caliber super utility man, which will make him in hot demand at the trade deadline. Other possible fits: Pretty much any contending team in need of an infielder or outfielder. Scott Kazmir, Toronto Blue Jays The Blue Jays and Athletics have already had their trade in past year, with the Josh Donaldson deal over the offseason. However, a second deal could be made this July, as the Blue Jays need starting pitching and the Athletics will likely unload Kazmir. While the two sides haven't been mentioned as anything more than a practical fit, as the arms start going off the board, the Blue Jays may be more likely to make a move. Another plus to Kazmir is that he has just this season left on his contract, perhaps making him a cheaper option at the deadline. Also, when Marcus Stroman comes back from injury in 2016, the Blue Jays will be able to make a quick and easy transition from Kazmir. Other possible fits: Houston Astros, Kansas City Royals, Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees --Devan Fink
Jeff Samardzija has been in this position before.
Last season at this time, Samardzija was nearing the end of his career as a member of the Chicago Cubs. He was dealt to Oakland in a multi-player deal in July. At the time of his trade, Samardzija was one of the best pitchers in the game. He went 2-7 with a 3.03 ERA with the Cubs last year, striking out 100 as opposed to 29 walks in 101 innings. This time around, Samardzija is in a bit of a different position. He is a member of a Chicago organization -- this time the White Sox -- but is not pitching nearly as well. He's 5-4 with a 4.53 ERA through 101.1 innings. Despite those "ugly" numbers, Samardzija has had some particularly bad luck, as his 3.67 FIP suggests that with some better defense his ERA would be nearly a run lower. His 84 to 17 strikeout-to-walk ratio also is an indication that things will turn around. Samardzija has been hurting from a .338 batting average on balls in play, 39 points higher than his career average. Again, with some better defense Samardzija is just as good as he was last year. When the White Sox, who were one of the bigger spenders this offseason, decide to rebuild following their 32-40 record through their first 72 games, Samardzija should be the first to go. For teams in the market for starting pitching, like the Astros, Blue Jays, Yankees, Giants, or even Dodgers, this has to be a welcome sight. Samardzija might be the most valuable addition for any club this trade deadline season. First, he's a free agent this offseason, which means that if the White Sox do decide to move him, he'll be cheaper for acquiring teams than if he had more years of team control. Second, his numbers aren't stellar. Any team could point to the fact that his 4.53 ERA should keep them from giving up very many top prospects in any deal. Third, the saber stats do show that, with better defense, Samardzija can be an ace in any staff. So, to recap, a team could be getting a free agent to-be at a discounted price due to poor performances and could end up getting an ace out of it. He may not be Cole Hamels or Johnny Cueto, but he's ready to become a key member of a new pitching staff for a contender down the stretch. His name is Jeff Samardzija and your team should go out and trade for him. --Devan Fink
Oakland Athletics' left-hander Scott Kazmir is not Cole Hamels.
Yet, at the Trade Deadline in two months, Kazmir could be the biggest bargain for any team in desperate need of some starting pitching help. Kazmir has had a solid start to this season, going 2-3 with a 3.09 ERA (3.93 FIP) and a 53 to 22 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 55.1 innings pitched. With all the need out there for an extra starting pitcher, Kazmir's stock could increase in the coming months. The Athletics' season has not started out hot, going 15-30 in their first 45 games. Knowing Billy Beane, the team is going to move some players in July. Kazmir is bound to be one of them. Oakland inked Kazmir to a two-year, $22 million deal prior to the 2014 season, and the deal has gone exactly how they hoped, with Kazmir pitching to a mid-3 ERA including an All-Star season last year. With Kazmir becoming a free agent this winter, it does not make sense for the Athletics to keep him. Possible suitors for Kazmir include the Dodgers, Blue Jays, Orioles, and even the Red Sox (if they can't get Cole Hamels). In my mind, all four of those clubs would be willing to give Beane the fair prospect price for Kazmir, which would probably be one or perhaps two intriguing lower-level prospects, similar to the Franklin Barreto addition in the Josh Donaldson deal. With every good start he makes, Kazmir becomes more valuable in a trade. His first start, against the Rangers, showed exactly what he is capable of. He threw seven innings, allowing one hit and no runs, striking out ten and walking just two. If that can't help the Blue Jays rotation with their 5.15 ERA, the Red Sox rotation with their 5.08 ERA, or the Dodgers with all the injuries to their rotation in Hyun-jin Ryu and Brandon McCarthy, I don't know what does. His name isn't Cole Hamels, but instead it's Scott Kazmir. And he's looking to help a struggling rotation today (or in July). --Devan Fink James Shields is the third of the "big three" starting pitchers (Max Scherzer, Jon Lester) to be a free agent this offseason. Shields, off of a World Series appearances with the Royals, might just be the most affordable of the big three due to his age. That doesn't mean that he won't be inexpensive by any means.
The 32-year-old Shields was drafted in the 16th round of the 2002 MLB Draft by the then-Tampa Bay Devil Rays. He worked his way through the minors nicely, breaking out especially in 2005. Shields came up to the Rays in 2006 and worked his first 152 games (151 starts) over the next five years. He was an average pitcher -- above average at best -- working his way to a 4.25 ERA in 977 2/3 innings pitched. His 2011 season changed his entire career. Shields went 16-12 with a 2.82 ERA and a 134 ERA+, also averaging 3.46 strikeouts per walk in 249 1/3 innings. He led the American League with an astounding 11 complete games and 4 shutouts. He was shipped to Kansas City in 2012 in the deal that moved Wil Myers to Tampa. Since, he's been with the Royals. This past season, Shields went 14-8 with a 3.21 ERA and a 124 ERA+, averaging 4.09 strikeouts per walk over his 227 innings pitched. He was a 3.7 fWAR player this past year. The Royals decided to offer Shields a one-year, $15.3 million qualifying offer, but he has yet to make a decision. Shields just isn't as good as Lester or Scherzer. Those are the facts. He's also older, which means that his contract won't be as extravagant, nor for as many years. Currently interested, as previously reported, in Shields are the Yankees, Red Sox, and Cubs (obvious ones), but also the Blue Jays, Orioles, and Marlins. It's hard to gauge the interest of the latter three teams right now, but I have to assume they're in due to a smaller contract size. Shields is a really good pitcher, but this postseason he didn't help his stock in pitching well down the stretch. Lester posted an ERA around 2.6 in close to his last 30 postseason innings and Scherzer has an ERA around 3.6 over his last 30 postseason innings. Shields has a 7.20 ERA over his last 30 postseason innings. This has to be taken into consideration for teams wanting to sign him, for sure. This contract is a tough one to peg for me, but I really believe that the Cubs are going all in this offseason. Whether this means they are going to sign Lester, Shields, or both, I do not know, and I probably won't be able to tell you until both of them sign. My personal opinion is that they will sign Lester, but I'm not sure about Shields. But it's really hard to peg a contract for him in general. So, I have James Shields signing with the Chicago Cubs on a five-year, $80 million contract. --Devan F. |