Zack Silverman is currently a rising sophomore at Virginia Tech, where he is working towards a statistics degree. He scouts the Virginia Tech baseball team and its opponents in his free time, doing his own write-ups on the players he sees. As an aspiring scout, he also does extensive work with the MLB Draft. In high school, he was a captain on the 2015 Virginia 6A State Champion Madison Warhawks, where he played outfield and earned two varsity letters. He has also worked as a private hitting coach for local youth, and competed in the Diamond Dollars Case Competition at the 2016 SABR Analytics Conference in Phoenix, Arizona.
The 2016 Draft is nearly upon us, so let’s take a look at the amatuer hitters available this year. There is a lot of high ceiling talent in this year’s draft class, though the college bats have been lacking for the most part. There is no Kris Bryant or Buster Posey, but there is an intriguing set of high upside hitters as well as high floor, safe bets. Below are the top 20 hitting prospects in this year’s draft, in my opinion. 1. OF Mickey Moniak (La Costa Canyon HS, CA) I’m the high guy on Moniak. He’s not just my favorite hitter, but my favorite player in this draft. I love the quick, smooth, left handed swing, and the athleticism he brings with it. His quick bat and line drive swing should help him hit .290 or higher at the big league level. Many question his future power ability, but I am actually a believer in him developing at least average power, if not above average. When he gets power conscious, he fires his hips just before his swing, and it works. When you put his swing side to side with Bryce Harper’s swing, you’ll see that both of their hips have fired and are in fact out from under their body at contact. I’m not necessarily comparing Moniak’s future hitting ability to that of Harper, but the similarity in the mechanics is there. Additionally, I have heard good things about Moniak’s work ethic. I love this kid as a ballplayer. Moniak is committed to UCLA. 2. OF Kyle Lewis (Mercer University) Your top college bat is Kyle Lewis, an athletic, powerful outfielder out of Mercer. Coming into the season, he had a lot to prove, as he plays in a smaller conference (the Southern Conference) and his plate discipline was less than exceptional last year. This year, he has proven everything he needed to, obliterating SoCon pitching and dramatically improving his plate discipline. He still strikes out a fair amount, and here is why. He has a lot of movement in not just his hands but everywhere before his swing, which means the bat is not in a very good hitting position as the pitch comes in. When coaches alter a player’s mechanics, there is often a learning curve, but in Lewis’ case, his hands and bat are so fast through the zone that I don’t see him losing any of his power when pro coaches streamline his swing path. I think that will cut down on his strikeouts as well as improve his contact ability. 3. OF Corey Ray (University of Louisville) Ray is probably the safest bet to be a big league All Star. While he does not have the ceiling of Moniak, Lewis, or many of the players that follow him on this list, he has a relatively high floor as a big league regular. He has the cleanest, smoothest swing in the draft class, and it has enabled him to put up very good, albeit not exceptional, numbers in the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC), the second toughest conference in college baseball. Despite his short stature (5’11”, 185 pounds), he runs extremely well, and should be able to stick in center field as he moves up the pro ladder. I see him with a ceiling of 15-20 home runs and a .290 or so average, with a floor of double digit power and capable on base abilities. A product of the Jackie Robinson West Little League and White Sox ACE charity program, Ray is a feel-good story as a kid who came from the south side of Chicago, playing high school ball at the same school (Simeon Academy) as NBA stars Derrick Rose and Jabari Parker. He likely won’t fall to the Sox at number ten, but that would be pretty cool if it happened. 4. 3B Nick Senzel (University of Tennessee) Tier two begins with Nick Senzel, the slugging infielder with the tools to be the top hitter to come out of the University of Tennessee since Todd Helton. Many mock drafts have him going higher than number seven, and as a high-floor college hitter, he may very well deserve to go higher. He has hit extremely well this year in the most difficult conference in college baseball, the Southeastern Conference (SEC), with very good plate discipline, and he projects as an above average third baseman at the big league level. A strong work ethic has enabled him to improve his entire game, and he may even have a higher floor than Corey Ray. However, he is ranked this low because I believe his ceiling is limited. He has a short swing that produces line drives to all fields, though this has given him much more doubles power than home run power. He could improve his game power by turning on pitches, though this likely would hurt his contact ability. 5. SS Delvin Perez (International Baseball Academy, PR) The youngest player on this list, Perez won’t turn 18 until November 24th. That makes him more than a full year younger than many other high schoolers on this list, such as Blake Rutherford, Drew Mendoza, and Carter Kieboom. As a Puerto Rican shortstop projected to go near the top of the draft, Perez has drawn comparisons to Carlos Correa, though those are largely superficial. I think Francisco Lindor is a better comp, as both were athletic, toolsy shortstops coming out of high school with excellent defensive abilities. Lindor was a better hitter at this point in his career, but Perez is four inches taller than him and can grow into more power. As I said, He’s excellent defensively, and should have no trouble as he matures into a major league caliber shortstop with above average range and arm strength. He is also a very good runner. However, his big flaw is at the plate, where his lanky frame and long arms can cause his swing to get out of control often, with a fairly weak follow through. However, due to his age, I think he can grow into his very skinny, 6’3”, 165 pound frame, and I also think most of his swing issues can be ironed out, making him an average big league hitter. Above average speed/defense + premium position + average bat = top ten pick. Perez has no college commitment, so he should be an easy sign.
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