"We want to be relevant in August and September, with a chance to play in October," Houston Astros GM Jeff Luhnow said.
The Astros are leading the American League with 20 victories. No, that is not a typo. This is the same franchise that was considered a Major League laughingstock not too long ago, winning 56, 55, 51, and 70 games over the past four seasons, respectively. The Astros hot start has many wondering whether they can actually make something of it. Something meaning a postseason birth, or better yet, a division crown. I, for one, am putting my stock into this 2015 Astros team and am also saying that the best is yet to come for the club. The Astros' offensive unit is amongst the best in baseball, ranking eighth in weighted runs created plus (wRC+)* with 101. They're second in the big leagues with 45 home runs, and have the third highest walk rate, despite striking out the second most. The Astros also have the second-most stolen bases in baseball. The Astros' offensive unit has posted 5.2 wins above replacement, seventh in baseball. The really scary thing about those numbers is that the Astros' team batting average on balls in play (BABIP)** is .275, 23rd in the Major Leagues, and right around struggling offensive units in the Phillies and Reds. The Astros could be even better on the offensive than they are right now. Scary, huh? Their pitching staff has been closer to how it should be performing than their offense. The Astros staff (bullpen and rotation) as a whole has the eighth-best ERA in baseball at 3.45. As their 3.61 FIP*** and 3.50 xFIP suggest, the Astros pitching is doing pretty much as well as it should be. "We’ve gotten off to the start that we wanted to," General Manager Jeff Luhnow said during an Astros TV broadcast. "It really is jelling in a way that you get a sense they believe in themselves now. That’s a big difference from this team’s last couple of seasons." Luhnow has played a big part in the Astros successes this season, bringing in a few key offseason additions. Those include outfielder/catcher Evan Gattis, outfielder Colby Rasmus, shorstop Jed Lawrie (who is injured), and starting pitcher Roberto Hernandez. These cost-effective moves have been effective performers on the field as well. Luhnow pushed away critics and stuck to his system, even if it meant being one of the worst teams in Major League baseball history three seasons in a row. As the Astros have a six game lead in the AL West, they're ready to be relevant once again. --Devan Fink *wRC+ measures how well a player (or team) produces runs. However, it is adjusted to park and league factors. A wRC+ of 100 is considered the big league "average," with every point over 100 being worth one percentage point better than the MLB average **BABIP measures the batting average a player (or team) has when putting the ball in play. A .300 BABIP is considered league-average, so therefore if a player (or team) has a BABIP under .300, they are considered unlucky. ***FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) takes the defense (good or bad) out of a pitcher's performance and bases how their ERA should be plainly on how well they have been limiting walks and getting strikeouts. xFIP is a variation of FIP that normalizes a pitcher's home run rate (home run rates tend to normalize as season goes on) to league-average to give you a better understanding of how lucky that pitcher has been.
0 Comments
The Red Sox made headlines this weekend by promoting top catching prospect Blake Swihart following the injury to starting catcher Ryan Hanigan.
Swihart, 23, was the Sox' first round pick in the 2011 draft and has flown through the minor leagues, being promoted all the way up to Triple-A last season. He was ranked as the 17th best prospect in baseball prior to this season by Baseball America and continued to mash through his first 18 games (.338/.392/.382 in 74 PA). While Swihart may have been the best option for the Red Sox at catcher following Hanigan's injury, this call-up does not by any means mean that Swihart is ready for the Major Leagues. Experts predicted that Swihart would need at least the first half of this season in Triple-A, perhaps longer, before getting the call. Now, he's getting the call in May, and while Red Sox fans are pumped, I, on the other hand, am wary of the decision for just one reason. Swihart hasn't played catcher long enough to have the feel to catch Major League pitching. Swihart's bat isn't the issue here; it's his defense. The Red Sox converted Swihart, who was a third baseman and outfielder, into a catcher, meaning he has just been calling games and blocking balls since only 2011, whereas many other catchers in the Majors have been doing it their entire baseball careers (amateur included). Sure, you can make the argument that half a season would not have made the difference in Swihart's defensive development, and generally I would agree with you. However, Swihart has just 31 games of Triple-A experience at catcher (he has 36 appearances), where the best non-Major League pitching is found. If Swihart was called up in June or July, he would have likely doubled his number of appearances behind the dish, perhaps making a huge difference for the Red Sox down the road. Even still, he will learn as he goes along. There's no doubt about that. But when you are the Red Sox, wouldn't you want the best overall catcher you can find, at least until you believe Swihart is ready? Swihart is good with the bat, but his defense and game calling probably cannot stand up to those Major League veterans that they could have found cheaply in a trade (e.g. Welington Castillo or Dioner Navarro) or even on the free agent market. It's hard to know how many runs or wins Swihart's defense and pitch calling will cost the Red Sox, if any. I'm just trying to comprehend calling him up after 36 games in Triple-A. Many players need at least a full season there before they are fully seasoned. And perhaps the Red Sox don't expect Swihart to be fully seasoned, but see him as the best available option. I could be wrong with this and I hope Swihart does prove me wrong. But taking a step back, I'm not exactly thrilled with the Red Sox decision to be proactive and promote Blake Swihart. Only time will tell, right? --Devan Fink |