Yu Darvish has never been closer to writing himself into baseball's record books. The Rangers ace lost his bid at a no-hitter with two outs in the ninth inning yesterday, after David Ortiz hit a single through the Rangers shift into right field. This is the second time that Darvish has lost a no-hitter with two outs in the ninth, with the first coming on April 2 of last year against the Astros when he lost his perfect game. Controversy surrounds on whether Darvish really lost his no-hitter in the ninth inning. In the seventh, Ortiz lifted a fly ball into medium right field that neither right fielder Alex Rios nor second baseman Rougned Odor could handle, ending Darvish's perfect game. Official scorer Steve Weller charged Rios with an error, claiming that the fly ball should have been caught by the right fielder, therefore keeping Darvish's no-hitter alive. Regardless of weather Ortiz is given another hit through review, let's take a look at what Darvish has done in flirting with no-hitters over his career. If the error stands, this would be the fourth time that Darvish has gone 8+ innings and allowed only one hit. That currently stands tied for fifteenth place among Major Leaguers since 1914, with the leader being Nolan Ryan with 16. Of the pitchers whom have tossed 8.2 innings or more while only allowing one hit, Darvish's two are tied for sixty-fourth place. Darvish will throw a no-hitter one day. He's got the stuff, the control, and the velocity to do it. It could happen in his next start, it could happen a few years from now. Regardless, there is no doubt in my mind on wether Yu Darvish will throw a no-hitter. The Rangers got themselves a very good pitcher in Darvish a few years back when they signed him before the 2012 season. One that may be no-hitter potential.
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The biggest surprise from the month of March/April was by far the Milwaukee Brewers. In their first 28 games, the "Brew Crew" had a Major League leading 20 wins. While many like to say that it is really hard to know much about a team in just 28 games, it is also hard to disregard a 20-8 record. While a great start is nice, what are the chances that the Brewers go to the playoffs? How about to the World Series?
The Brewers have one of the best pitching staffs in all of the Major Leagues. Consisted of Kyle Lohse, Wily Peralta, Yovani Gallardo, Marco Estrada, and Matt Garza, the Brewers' rotation is sixth in the Majors in ERA, tops in innings pitched, and is sixth in opponents' OPS. It takes pitching to win the World Series. A rocket scientist does not need to know that. The fact of the matter is, however, is whether the Brewers' rotation can keep up their fantastic start. I mean seriously; who would have known that Wily Peralta has a 2.04 ERA in six starts? At this point, nobody. The Brewers' Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) believes that the rotation will eventually fall off of the mountain. If you are not familiar with the statistic, FIP measures how well a pitcher is at at avoiding walks, home runs, and hit batters, and causing strikeouts. The constant is set so that an average FIP equals an average ERA. In short, FIP basically takes the team's defense out of the pitchers' ERA. Here's the FIP for the Brewers rotation: 3.27 (Lohse), 3.90 (Peralta), 3.64 (Gallardo), 4.61 (Estrada), and 3.76 (Garza). That should definitely be a warning flag for a decline in their rotation. So far in May, the Brewers are 2-3. They do have a five game lead on the division, but giving up 21 runs in five games (4.2 runs per game) is not ideal. In April, the Brewers only gave up 95 runs in 28 games (3.39 runs per game). Already the Brewers pitching has started to settle in to what their talent suggests. Whether they can rebound is beyond me, but the signs do not look very good. On the offensive, the Brewers have been good at times and bad at times. It makes sense that they rank sixth in the National League in runs scored. Slugger Ryan Braun is on the disabled list. Only four players, Braun, Carlos Gomez, Jonathan Lucroy, and Mark Reynolds have an OPS+ above the league-average 100. All other starters' are in the high-80s or lower. The offense has been a strength for the Brewers in past seasons, so there still could be a rebound. Of the 50 teams to start their season 20-8, 10 would go on to win the World Series Championship. One of those teams included the 2013 Boston Red Sox, who their hot start all the way to the championship. While the 20% "chance" to win the World Series is definitely an intriguing number for Brewers fans, I do not personally believe they can win the World Series. They play in a tough National League that includes teams like the Dodgers and Nationals, and they also have been "lucky" to begin the season with their pitching staff and other factors. Before you start reserving your tickets to the postseason Brewers fans, remember that there is a lot of season left to go, and that your team might not be as fitted as you may think it is to go all the way and win the World Series. There are just too many factors involved. This "luck" can only take you so far. As a spin-off from my trivia and twitter statistic from yesterday, this article is dedicated to Ben Revere's pursuit for his first home run. Have you ever wondered the longest streaks in baseball without a home run? How about the longest streaks to begin a career without a home run? Philadelphia Phillies center fielder Ben Revere has yet to hit his first career home run. His lack of power is, well, explainable, and he is getting ready to break some records because of it. For those of you that don't know Revere's game all that well, he's a speedster, isn't all that tall (5 foot, 9 inches to be exact), and, to put it plainly, has zero power. Believe it or not, Revere actually hit five minor-league home runs. However, in his first 355 games where Revere had one at bat or sacrifice hit, he has not homered. Now where does that stand all time in homer droughts? I took a look at that yesterday, and was astounded by the results. Over the past 25 years (since 1989), Revere has the seventh-longest homer-less streak of non-pitchers, with only Rafael Belliard (559 games), Al Newman (452 games), Jose Lind (418 games), Jamey Carroll (415 games), Felix Fermin (408 games), and Alex Cole (400 games) ahead of him. In those same 25 years, Revere's streak of 355 games without a home run is the second-longest to begin a career. It only took Alex Cole longer (371 games) to hit his first career home run. Only three players since 1989 (Jason Tyner is the other) have had to wait over 300 games to hit their first career shot. Now when will Ben Revere go yard? The Phillies do not play in Colorado again this season, so Revere won't get the altitude advantage to lift the ball. Revere's highest slugging percentage over his career has come at Rogers Centre in Toronto. The Phillies do play there this season, actually just in a few days (May 7-8). Maybe Revere's past success can translate into a home run. He could hit one out at Miller Park, where he has four doubles, the second-most of all stadiums (behind Target Field). He could hit one out at Citizens Bank this summer, where the ball is known to carry. Anyway or anywhere he does it, Ben Revere's first home run will be something special for baseball fans everywhere. We definitely won't see it often. |