The countdown to Opening Day is getting smaller. The Opening Series has begun, and only nine days to Opening Day. Every few days from now to the beginning of the season, I will be previewing one division, leading up to my postseason picks on Opening Night. After doing the National League East, we will continue with the National League Central division today. 1. St. Louis Cardinals -- 2013 Record: 97-65; Projected Record: 98-64 The Cardinals have a very similar team to the one that led them to the World Series last season against the Boston Red Sox. In fact, they have probably improved their team with their off season moves. They also have a young pitching staff and a fantastic lineup. With that team, it has to be the Cardinals at the top of the National League Central division this season. They are going to go deep into the postseason, and will put up a good fight with the Nationals to represent the National League in the World Series. This off season, the Cardinals improved their team, by signing shortstop Jhonny Peralta and trading for outfielder Peter Bourjos. They will both be upgrades at their respective positions. Peralta, in a PED suspension shortened season, posted a 119 OPS+, and Bourjos posted a 102 OPS+ and stole 6 bases in 55 games. He should add some speed to the top of St. Louis' lineup, and should also be a force in the outfield. In general, the Cardinals have a great lineup that includes the likes of Yadier Molina, Allen Craig, and Matt Holliday, and a great rotation that includes Adam Wainwright, Lance Lynn, Michael Wacha, and Joe Kelly. They should be in a great position to finish at the top of the National League Central division. In other words, the Cardinals are at the top, and everyone else is looking up. 2. Cincinnati Reds -- 2013 Record: 90-72; Projected Record: 87-75 The Cincinnati Reds did not do that much to improve their team this offseason, cupped with the loss of Shin-Soo Choo to the Texas Rangers. Overall, they have still got a great team, and they will be right in the mix for the National League Central. The Reds have a good ball-club, and will definitely give the Cardinals a run for their money. It's just that they will not finish first. Yes they've got a good core with Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Brandon Phillips, and rookie Billy Hamilton, but they did not do a good enough job to contend with the Cardinals. The lone "major" move the Reds made was trading Ryan Hanigan to the Rays in a three-team trade that sent David Holmberg (minors) from the Diamondbacks back to Cincinnati. However, as I said earlier, Billy Hamilton is getting ready to become an everyday starter for the Reds. He could be that new addition that really sparks this team. In five minor-league seasons, Hamilton has 395 stolen bases in just 502 games. If he can continue to get on base (.350 OBP in MiLB), Hamilton will be a force in the Reds lineup. Overall, the Reds outlook looks pretty good. They will be in the running for a Wild Card spot, and might just well be playing in the one game playoff come October. For that to happen, Billy Hamilton has to be their x-factor and come through for them. The loss of Shin-Soo Choo might be too tough to handle, but if Hamilton can do similar things to what he did in the minors, the Reds won't nearly be as effected. We will have to see if Hamilton can come through in 2014. 3. Milwaukee Brewers -- 2013 Record: 74-88; Projected Record: 84-77 I like the Brewers more than the Pirates for two reasons. First, their off season was much better than the Pirates', who made no major moves to improve their team. Second, their pitching staff could be one of the most underrated in the National League, especially after that free agent addition of Matt Garza. Yovani Gallardo, Wily Peralta, and Kyle Lohse are as good as anyone, even though they finished 22nd in the MLB in starter's ERA last season. It's not just the rotation that could make the Brewers a surprise contender; they boast an offense that includes an entire season of Ryan Braun, All Star Carlos Gomez, and Jonathan Lucroy just to name a few of their players. In short, the Brewers are as good as anybody, but their overall finish depends on their execution. One player that must execute is Matt Garza, the Brewers lone major signing this off season. Garza's performance could determine how well the Brewers play, if he plays well, they could be a surpriser, or if he doesn't, they could fall back into the depths of the NL Central. The Brewers season could go in many different ways. But for now, I am going to go with a realistic prediction, and have them finishing third in the National League Central. As I said, they could be a surpriser, and they could make it to the playoffs for the first time since 2011. A few things have to go right for that to happen, but it is not impossible. The Brewers will be the team to watch from the National League Central in 2014. 4. Pittsburgh Pirates: 2013 Record: 94-68; Projected Record: 81-81 The Pirates do not have a pitching staff to hold up their offense. That is why they will finish dead even, at a .500 winning percentage. The loss of A.J. Burnett to the Phillies, and likely unsustainable seasons from Jeff Locke and Charlie Morton will lead to the quick fall of the Pittsburgh Pirates. They will be back, but this just is not shaping up to be their year. The Pirates did nothing this offseason. Absolutely nothing. Their biggest signing was of Chris Dickerson to a minor-league deal. They have still got a great offense with Andrew McCutchen, Pedro Alvarez, and Neil Walker, but the number of off season moves, plus a run down pitching staff could lead to the Pirates downfall in the National League Central this upcoming season. It does not seem like they will be able to compete at the same level with the Cardinals, Reds, or Brewers, who all have better pitching staffs. Even the greatest offensive teams need pitching to back them up. If the Pirates get repeat performances from Locke and Morton, they could be back in the playoffs. It just seems like that is becoming unlikely, and after refusing to bring in anyone this offseason, let alone a pitcher, it seems like the Pirates are destined for a down season. As I keep saying, their offense isn't a problem, it just does not look like they have a pitching staff to support it. 5. Chicago Cubs -- 2013 Record: 66-96; Projected Record: 70-92 When I say the Cubs will be better next year, I really mean that. They have got my favorite farm system, and it will not be long before they rebound and rise to the top of the NL Central. However, it looks like it will be another bleak season for Cubs fans. They did make some nice small moves this off season, which could be key to their success, but I just cannot see the playoffs happening for the Cubs this season. They have Kris Bryant and Javier Baez crushing home runs in the minors. They have Mike Olt, who might just return to somewhere near the top prospect that he was not too long ago. But, what they do have in the Major Leagues is not that great. They have Starlin Castro, who is getting ready for a breakout season. They have Anthony Rizzo, who was one of the few bright spots for the team. But besides that, they have very little to work with this season. A new manager, some minute off season moves, and another last place finish seems to be the Cubs destiny. Cubs fans, it will not be long before you are back on top. I really have enjoyed watching your patience over these past few (many) years. But for now, it looks like you will be finishing last in the National League Central division this season. Just one more year, and the Cubs could be right smack in the middle of my predictions, but they are dead last this season. It does not look like much could change that.
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The countdown to Opening Day is getting smaller. We are just five days to the beginning of the Opening Series, and fourteen to Opening Day. Every few days from now to the beginning of the season, I will be previewing one division, leading up to my postseason picks on Opening Night. We will start with the National League East division today. 1. Washington Nationals -- 2013 Record: 86-76; Projected Record: 94-68 The Washington Nationals are my pick to win the 2014 World Series. I have been saying that all off season long, and am sticking by my pick in my NL East preview. Many people (including me) had high expectations for the Nationals in 2013, and predicted them to win the World Series. In reality, they got off to a slow start, going 48-47 before the All Star break. Then, they started to play better, and went 38-29 during the second half, finishing out with an impressive 18-9 September. Even still, they went out and improved their team this off season. On December 2, the Nationals shook the world with a trade for Doug Fister. In return, the Nationals gave Robbie Ray, Ian Krol, and Steve Lombardozzi to the Tigers. Fister adds to an already three-headed monster rotation for the Nationals with Jordan Zimmermann, Gio Gonzalez, and Stephen Strasburg. Each of those pitchers posted ERA+'s (earned run average adjusted to home ballpark) above the league-average 100. Fister himself adds 4.1 wins to 2013 number four starter Dan Haren. Even without Fister the Nationals were due for a comeback campaign. Both Bryce Harper and Jayson Werth were unable to play 130 games, with the elder only playing 118. Speaking of Harper, have you seen him lately? He's been working hard this offseason, and is now build like a truck. That just adds to the reasons why the Nationals are ready for a great season. 2. Philadelphia Phillies -- 2013 Record: 73-89; Projected Record: 89-73 I read a nice FanGraphs article which said that the Phillies added 16 WAR to their team, and although that total is based on last season, I can see them adding 16 wins to their last season's record. The National League East division is a weak one (besides the Nationals), and the Phillies could be in for one last hurrah. Ryne Sandberg takes over as manager for the entire season, and he's ready to get the most out of every single player on his roster. The Phillies made one really big move this off season, the signing of A.J. Burnett. And if we've learned anything from Burnett over the past few seasons, it's that he can rack up the strikeouts and can pitch at a high level, especially after rejuvenating his career in Pittsburgh. The main reason I like the Burnett signing is that he is a ground-ball pitcher, posting a 50.4% career ground-ball percentage. In a hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park, pitching to ground-balls is one of the main ways to have success, and Burnett will have it. The only thing I'm worried about with the Phillies is their obvious injury concerns. Already in Spring Training Cole Hamels is injured, and we may see a gradual snowball effect into the season. Other than that, I like the youth at third base and in the outfield (Cody Asche, Ben Revere, and Domonic Brown respectivelly), and I like the signing of Marlon Bryd as well. He, although old, can still swing the bat well, and has shown it in Spring Training. Believe it or not, the Phillies could be on the bounce-back train in 2014. 3. Atlanta Braves -- 2013 Record: 96-66; Projected Record: 87-75 Ask me to rank my NL East teams two weeks ago and the Braves would be over 90 wins and second in the division. But, boy what has happened? Well, projected Opening Day starter Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy might both need Tommy John Surgery. Their once touted rotation depth is crumbling, as the Braves scramble for options. This is the year that the Braves disappoint everyone and fall to third in the standings. The Braves did sign the former Royal Ervin Santana to a one-year deal to cover the "damages." However, this does not seem like enough. The Braves not only lost Medlen and Beachy, but remember they lost both Tim Hudson and signal-caller Brian McCann to the Giants and Yankees, respectively. The Braves still have a good lineup with Freddie Freeman, Jason Heyward, and both Upton brothers (B.J. and Justin). The Braves could reach 90 wins, but their rotation problems could spell the end of their run at the top of the National League East. They lost some valuable pieces and only signed Ervin Santana out of desperation. I could see the Braves in the playoffs in 2014, but do not be surprised if their loss of pitching comes back to haunt them, and will not be able to sustain their offense, leading to a disappointment season. 4. New York Mets -- 2013 Record: 74-88; Projected Record: 72-90 The Mets fall down to fourth place this season, after a promising third place finish. The loss of Matt Harvey does not help, but they did sign Curtis Granderson and Bartolo Colon this offseason, something that should help them into the future. However, this season looks bleak for the Mets, with a lack of offense and star pitching. The Mets signed Curtis Granderson and Bartolo Colon this off season. In theory, it looks like the Mets offense and pitching will be helped. However, it's hard to rely on a 40-year-old coming off of a career year to lead your staff. That staff looks uneasy, as Jonathon Niese has a hyperextended left elbow. They still have John Lannan, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and others battling for another rotation spot. On the other hand, Eric Young Jr., David Wright, Ike Davis, and Granderson should lead the lineup and provide run support for their pitching staff. Overall, the Mets should wait until 2015 before they start looking to make the postseason. They have a promising, young lineup, and also have tons of pitching depth in the minor leagues that is ready to break out to the Majors soon. Zack Wheeler and Noah Syndergaard should be on the Mets by Opening Day and around June, respectively. However, their time is next season, not this season. Mets fans, your future is bright, but wait until next season. 5. Miami Marlins -- 2013 Record: 62-100; Projected Record: 65-97 Another year in the cellar of the NL East for Miami. They've got a good young team, but besides Giancarlo Stanton, they seem to be in the same situation as the Mets, waiting for their time. They will be improved, but they took some risks this off season. Miami does boast a young pitching staff where four of their five regular starters posted ERA+'s over the league-average 100. However, only one (Jose Fernandez) was able to pitch over 150 innings. The Marlins made some changes this offseason, signing the likes of Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Rafael Furcal, and Casey McGehee. On paper, these signings look like they will immensely help the Marlins. But, if you dig a little deeper, you see the issues with all three of these players. First, Saltalamacchia has only had one good season (2013), and never posted a OPS+ over 100 previously. He had been playing in Boston's bandbox for three seasons. Now, he's headed to a pitcher's park, and his offense is bound to go down. Second, Furcal hasn't played since 2012, and comes with his own share of injuries. And third, McGehee hasn't played since 2012 either, and last had a season above-average in 2010. The Marlins team is full of questions. In general, Miami has some really good young prospects, and it will not be long before they rise up in the National League East. But for now, they still are the cellar-dwellers and will remain that way until they really decide to make a splash, or when their prospects fully develop. That should not take that long. (Last updated: 3/17/14, 8:53 AM)
Here's the latest on shortstop Stephen Drew, who remains one of the two unsigned players that turned down their qualifying offers in the beginning of the off season:
Free agent starter Ervin Santana has yet to agree to a contract this offseason. Today, things between Santana and a handful of teams seemed to be bringing Santana to a deal. Here is what we know:
(Last updated: 3/10/14, 4:15 PM; New updates on bottom) On Wednesday, we found out that 34-year-old Rick Ankiel would be retiring from the game of baseball. He appeared in the Major Leagues as both a pitcher and an outfielder, something that one does not see very often. Let's take a look back at Rick Ankiel's Major League career.
In 1997, the St. Louis Cardinals selected Ankiel with their second round selection (20th overall). The left-handed pitcher Ankiel would be coming from Port St. Lucie High School, in Port St. Lucie, Florida. Ankiel went 11-1 with a 0.47 ERA during his senior season, adding 162 strikeouts in 74 innings pitched. He was named USA Today's High School Player of the Year. The Cardinals gave Ankiel a $2.5 million signing bonus, the fifth highest bonus by an amateur at that time. He proved his worth during the beginning of his minor-league career, posting ERAs of 2.63 and 2.35 in 1998 and 1999, respectively. His fantastic pitching led him to a fast MLB debut, when the then 19-year-old posted a 3.27 ERA in 33 innings with the Cardinals. Ankiel began the 2000 season in the Major Leagues, where he went 11-7 with a 3.50 ERA in 175 innings pitched, finishing second in the National League Rookie of the Year voting. Ankiel was not a bad hitter and hit .250 (17-for-68) with 2 home runs and 9 RBI in 73 plate appearances with the Cardinals. In 2001, Ankiel's career took a turn for the worst. He walked 9.4 batters per nine innings, and walked 25 in his 24 innings pitched. He also hit three batters by pitches and threw five wild pitches. This resulted in him heading back to Triple-A. Ankiel had even more trouble, walking seventeen hitters in only 4 1/3 innings pitched. He had a horrific 20.77 ERA. This caused Ankiel to be sent back to Single-A, where he became a part-time designated hitter. Ankiel had power, and homered 10 times in his minimal 118 plate appearances. After he was forced to sit out the 2002 season due to an elbow strain, Ankiel returned to the minors in 2003. He then found out that he would need Tommy John Surgery to repair the UCL ligament in his elbow. His pitching had not improved, and it seemed likely that Ankiel was going to turn out to be a bust. Another failed attempt at pitching in the Major Leagues in 2004 led Rick Ankiel to announcing that he would switch to becoming an outfielder for the 2005 season. In a Spring Training appearance, Ankiel threw only three strikes out of 20 pitches. He hit a combined triple-slash line of .259/.339/.514 with 21 home runs and 75 RBI in 369 plate appearances. He added 5 outfield assists in only 48 games in the field. The Cardinals invited Ankiel to their Major League Spring Training in 2006 as an outfielder with a slim chance to make the roster; he impressed many with his power stroke and his fielding. However, he injured his left knee, and was forced to have season-ending surgery. In 2007, Ankiel was once again invited to Cardinals Spring Training, but was sent to Triple-A Memphis in order to continue his conversion. Ankiel had a fantastic season, hitting 32 homers in just 102 games (423 plate appearances). He was called up to the Major Leagues on August 9, 2007, and hit a three-run home run to propel the Cardinals to a 5-0 win. Ankiel would homer twice two days later against the Dodgers, and homered four times in his first 10 games. Ankiel was in the Major Leagues to stay. He received 2,019 plate appearances as an outfielder, and finally seemed to find his craft. He homered 74 times, and hit a triple-slash line of .242/.304/.427 during those seven seasons. Ankiel was able to become a serviceable Major League player, and became the second player (Babe Ruth) in MLB history with at least 50 home runs and 10 wins. That is very good company. And on the day when Ankiel retires, we remember the roller coaster of a career he had. He was a good prospect that just lost what he had, but was able to rebound and make the Major Leagues. That is a great story (Hollywood worthy), and should be told for a long time. I wish Rick Ankiel the best in retirement, as we see one of baseball's greatest stories come to an end. |