Coming into this offseason, the Padres' largest free agent signing ever (in total) was that of Joaquin Benoit on a two-year, $15.5 million, signed in December 2013.
Times have changed in San Diego, and at 6:30 pm eastern, the signing of James Shields to a four-year, $75 million deal became official. Shields' signing almost surely wraps up what appears to be the Padres' greatest offseason ever, after they acquired a brand-new outfield in Justin Upton, Matt Kemp, and Wil Myers from the Braves, Dodgers, and Rays, respectively, while also adding a catcher and a third baseman in Derek Norris and Will Middlebrooks. I have heard and seen people, Padres fans and non-Padres fans, call the team "World Series contenders." Hold on a second there. Let's take a step back, shall we? I'm not sure the Padres are even division contenders, playoff contenders, or even 90 win contenders in 2015. FanGraphs projects the team to finish 80-82. While that may be a bit on the conservative side, I would not be surprised if they finished between 80 and 89 wins in the new campaign. A lot of questions remain in San Diego, even after adding Shields, Upton, Kemp, Myers, Norris, and Middlebrooks. First is outfield defense. The Padres are planning on playing Upton in left, Myers in center, and Kemp in right. That outfield as a whole might just be the worst defensive outfield in baseball. The three outfielders are projected to post a combined -18.9 Fielding Rating (Fielding and Positional Adjustment Above Average) in 2015. That would have put them in the bottom 10 in baseball last year. I'm also not convinced that Myers will hit. After posting a 131 OPS+ in 373 plate appearances in 2013 while winning the Rookie of the Year award, Myers has been almost exactly as far below average as a hitter in 2014 as he was above average in 2013. He posted a 77 OPS+ in 361 plate appearances last year. Myers' on-base percentage dropped 60 points from 2013 to 2014, while his average dropped over 70 and his slugging percentage dropped almost 160. Myers' production, or lack thereof, could be attributed to a wrist fracture suffered in May. However, even when he came back in August, he was worse. From August 20 through the end of the season, Myers hit .213/.263/.268/.530 in 137 plate appearances. That's why I'm not convinced he is a big league hitter. It will take a full, healthy season to really see which Wil Myers he is, the emerging star or prospect bust. I'm also worried about the chemistry of this team. The best baseball clubs are the ones that came through the minors together, that worked together, and that would do anything for each other. The 2013 World Series Champion Red Sox had great players in the clubhouse, ones that would worry about benefitting the team ahead of themselves. The 2008 World Series Champion Phillies, behind a core of Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Shane Victorino, and Cole Hamels, had great chemistry. The Padres are a team full of players from different teams. In their starting lineup, only three players, Alexi Amarista, Jedd Gyorko, and Yonder Alonso, were with the team last year. What type of chemistry will this bunch form? It's hard to know, but history tells us that they won't mesh. The 2012 Miami Marlins and 2013 Toronto Blue Jays, both considered to be the "winner" of their respective offseason, went a combined 143-181 (.441) in those two years. If the Padres post a .441 winning percentage this season, they would go 71-91, a complete failure. While it's nice to have James Shields, Justin Upton, Matt Kemp, Wil Myers, Derek Norris, and Will Middlebrooks join a team in an offseason, does it really mean contention? And for the Padres, I'm not so sure. They will have their chance to prove it to me in the coming months. --Devan Fink
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If everything goes right, we could see the Miami Marlins in the 2015 MLB Playoffs.
That's right. The Miami Marlins. In the playoffs. For the first time since winning the World Series in 2003. Folks, it could and very well might happen. The Marlins might just have one of the deepest, and most well-rounded, rosters in the National League. In the outfield you are looking at Giancarlo Stanton, masher of baseballs (NL leading 37 homers in 2014); Christian Yelich, a Gold Glover with a .362 on-base percentage (14th in NL); and Marcell Ozuna, who had a not too shabby .772 OPS last season. That is arguably the best outfield in baseball. In the infield, the Marlins don't have any flashy players, but they have a lot of depth. Jarrod Saltalamacchia handles the catching. Around the horn, Mike Morse is out at first, Dee Gordon is at second, Martin Prado plays third, and Adeiny Hechavarria mans shortstop. The Marlins have an underrated lineup that if it produces could be dangerous against anyone. The Marlins' rotation is solid too. They have a great top two starters in Jose Fernandez and Mat Latos. Henderson Alvarez, Jarred Cosart, and Dan Haren round out a rotation that has some young guns (Fernandez, Alvarez, and Cosart) with some veteran presence (Haren and Latos). The Marlins rotation is a good one all the way across the board and could be much better than most people think. The 2014 Royals surprised us all by making the postseason for the first time since 1983. How did they do it? With balance all around the roster. They did not have many flashy players in the infield (Salvador Perez, Eric Hosmer, Omar Infante, Mike Moustakas, and Alcides Escobar) and had one star in the outfield (Alex Gordon), along with two other solid outfielders (Lorenzo Cain and Nori Aoki). I see a real similarity between the two teams, considering that they are balanced all across the board. On the staff, the Royals boasted James Shields, Jeremy Guthrie, Jason Vargas, Yordano Ventura, and Danny Duffy. Just like the Marlins, they had a good mix of veterans and young guns. The resemblances between the two teams, at least to me, are very scary. FanGraphs projects that the Marlins will go 81-81 in 2015, posting a -4 run differential. I could see that being a modest projection for a team that could win in the 87-90 games range. The Marlins do have the best team in baseball in their division, which could cost them a few games. However, this team is built on balance and depth, and with some good performance, they could be a real surprise this upcoming season. The Marlins in the playoffs? Start believing it. --Devan Fink |