A quick summary of Monday's notable news and rumors...
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In four days, the Diamondbacks' pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training. Then two days later, the Dodgers' pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training. Then, three days after that, the Indians' pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training. You get it. However, there is one problem. Many top tier free agents are still on the free agent market.
Ervin Santana, Ubaldo Jimenez, Bronson Arroyo, A.J. Burnett, and Nelson Cruz are atop the list of the remaining free agents. Who knows where they could land? First of all, there are issues with many of the players. Santana, Jimenez, and Cruz each received qualifying offers, causing teams to give up a draft pick if they signed. Arroyo is nearly 37, and has a 4.19 ERA over his last three seasons, both of which could turn teams away. And Burnett has just decided to remain playing, adding to the headache even further. Let's investigate Ervin Santana declining his qualifying offer and attempt to determine whether he should have taken his chance at $14 million next season. This late into the offseason, he does not have a contract. The 31-year-old Santana from the Dominican Republic has asked for outrageous contracts this offseason, with him reportedly wanting over $100 million. Today is February 2nd, and the rumors on Santana have been relatively quiet. We really do not know who is interested, and who could really sign him. Why is that? Santana did post a highly respectable 3.24 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP. He had a K/BB rate of 161/51 (3.16) in 211 innings. Assume Santana's next contract averages $20 million per season. The only pitchers that made $20 million or more in 2013 were Johan Santana, Cliff Lee, CC Sabathia, Tim Lincecum, Justin Verlander, Roy Halladay, Barry Zito, and Matt Cain. Before you think, "Santana was better than half these pitchers last season!" But think about these players' careers in general. All except for Zito have had super successful careers, and have earned their contracts. I am arguing that their careers have been better than Santana's. Which could be another reason that teams are unwilling to pay that much money. Santana's 2012 was not very good. He went 9-13 with a 5.16 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP (74 ERA+), giving up a league-worst 39 home runs. That year, Santana had trouble getting past seven innings; only 11 of his 30 starts went past that number of innings. Over his career, Santana has a 4.19 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP in 268 games. This is decent, but does not not deserve $100 million. Santana is asking for too much for his worth. So, yes, in my opinion, Ervin Santana definitely should have taken his qualifying offer. At this pace, Santana probably won't report to Spring Training on time, and might be a late signee. I doubt that he will sign within the next week. Yes Santana will be training, but not with a pitching coach, and not with a rotation. But, if Santana gets his $100 million, kudos to him for holding out this long. I doubt he gets that and is forced to take a pay cut. By taking the qualifying offer, it would end this headache, and Santana would be able to test the market again next offseason. On Saturday, the Royals officially announced their new deal with pitcher Bruce Chen. To make room for him, they designated utility guy Emilio Bonifacio for assignment. Although that may not seem huge, the Royals just agreed to a $3.5 million deal with Bonifacio to avoid arbitration. And he's worth every penny. Let me explain.
First of all, Bonifacio is young. The 29-year-old to be debuted just seven years ago and might still have his prime ahead of him. Second of all, he's fast. He averages 37 stolen bases per 162 games, while only being caught 10 times, including a career-high 40 stolen bases in 2011. And although he has a -8.8 career Def (Defensive Equivalent to WAR), he is versatile defensively; Bonifacio has played and started at six different positions, including all three outfield positions and every infield position besides first base and catcher. However, the bat isn't there yet. Bonifacio has a career 79 OPS+ and a 20.4% K rate compared to just a 8.0% BB rate. His swings at 29.8% of pitches outside the strike zone and only 61.2% of pitches inside the strike zone. But, for $3.5 million, Bonifacio does not have to be a starter. He can provide depth at every position, provide speed as a pinch runner, and can play decently defensively. Who could be interested in attempting to acquire Bonifacio? More then likely, Bonifacio will have to be acquired by trade because multiple teams should be interested. So far, nothing has been reported in a team acquiring Bonifacio, but, Mets, Yankees, and Phillies writers have all shown their interest in their respective teams acquiring the Dominican Republic native. Bonifacio could also make sense for the Dodgers, who have needed more depth in the infield this offseason. The Royals have a few options for Bonifacio. They have 10 days to either put Bonifacio on waivers (that must be done within the first seven days), trade him, release him, or outright him to the minor leagues. Expect the last two options highly unlikely, as many teams could show interest in trying to trade for Bonifacio, which, in my opinion, will likely end up happening. Whoever ends up acquiring Bonifacio may end up acquiring a very cheap gem which could prove a difference in big moments in the season. These are the moves that a team has to make in the offseason to really have a chance to contend for the World Series. Take good note on who acquires Bonifacio; that will be big. Count on it. |